By now, you’ve likely heard about how this year’s NFL Draft is one of the hardest to project.
Between the uncertainty around the quarterback position and the number of players who could find themselves in the first round of the NFL Draft, there is no way to fully project the top 10 of the draft, let alone all 31 first-round picks.
As I sat down to write my final mock draft of the cycle, I found it difficult to get past the Houston Texans at No. 2 overall. The new coaching staff can take plenty of different paths, including passing up on a quarterback, and they’ll all affect the rest of the first round.
As a result, this mock draft might be ruined early on. However, that’s the challenge of trying to predict all 31 picks.
Unlike my other four mock drafts, this one doesn’t have trades. While there will be trades during Thursday’s festivities, it’s hard to predict which teams will move up, so I want to keep this one as chalk as possible.
Without further ado, here goes nothing.
1. Carolina Panthers: Alabama QB Bryce Young
We don’t need to pretend here. Betting odds point to Bryce Young being the next quarterback of the Carolina Panthers, and their actions support it. Heck, the owner’s wife hugged Young during the Alabama Pro Day.
Owner Nicole Tepper wishing Alabama QB Bryce Young luck ahead of his pro day pic.twitter.com/Y3jhDrVweM
— Augusta Stone (@augustalstone) March 23, 2023
Young has clear size limitations, but his football IQ and ability to play out of structure make him an obvious choice. The Panthers will need to continue to build their offense, but building around Young should make that job easier.
2. Houston Texas: Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud
I’m calling my shot. Recent discussion has placed the Houston Texans out of the quarterback market by selecting an edge rusher (Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson or Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr.), but I don’t believe that. At all.
I also don’t believe that the Texans are prioritizing Kentucky’s Will Levis over Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud at quarterback. At this point of the cycle, most things said are smoke screens, and all signs should point to the new regime drafting a quarterback. They didn’t sign a veteran in free agency or trade for one, and Davis Mills has overstayed his welcome as the team’s starter. Drafting Stroud allows the Texans to usher in this new era with a competent starter and a building block at the most important position on the field. Take the guessing game out of it. This is a no-brainer.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Alabama EDGE Will Anderson Jr.
If the Arizona Cardinals stay at this spot, then the pick is likely down to Will Anderson Jr. or Tyree Wilson. There have been reports that some teams prefer Wilson over Anderson, but there’s no reason for a team like the Cardinals to pass on Anderson’s skill set.
The Cardinals desperately need an injection of talent on the defensive side of the ball, especially at the edge rusher position. While Wilson’s ceiling is high, Anderson enters as a battle-tested pass rusher who played against some of the best players in college football. Anderson’s burst and pass-rushing skills make him an intriguing prospect, especially with better coaching in the NFL.
4. Indianapolis Colts: Florida QB Anthony Richardson
The Indianapolis Colts have tried the quarterback carousel strategy. It failed miserably. Now, it’s time for general manager Chris Ballard to draft a young quarterback their offense (and team) can build around.
Florida’s Anthony Richardson is a blank slate heading into the NFL, with little playing time over his college career. While that can be negative, it also means that the Colts can mold him into whatever vision they have for him. Selecting Richardson requires a coaching staff willing to bet on their development, but Richardson’s physical traits could make that job a lot easier.
5. Seattle Seahawks: Georgia iDL Jalen Carter
Georgia’s Jalen Carter has a fair share of off-the-field issues, but you can’t deny the talent on it. Carter is a unique interior defensive lineman because of his ability to rush the passer at a high level. Few players in the NFL Draft have Carter’s pass-rushing ability and those that do don’t have his size.
Landing in Seattle is perfect for Carter because the culture should help him transition into the NFL. Likewise, he’ll have a great fit on the defense, where he can slot in as a disruptive defensive lineman who gets his money on third down.
6. Detroit Lions: Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez
This pick has been here since the beginning and for obvious reasons. Even though the Detroit Lions have addressed the secondary in free agency, the combination of Emmanuel Moseley and Cameron Sutton is a band-aid over the wound.
Selecting a cornerback like Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez gives the Lions a potential lockdown cornerback on the outside and could solve their problem for a while. While he’s not great against the run, his ability in covering wide receivers should help every team forget about that.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon
The Las Vegas Raiders could go quarterback, but the contract given to Jimmy Garoppolo likely takes them out of the market for at least a season. Likewise, offensive line is a need, but there isn’t a great fit this early in the draft.
Shifting to defensive back seems to be the next best option, especially given their current cornerback room. Devon Witherspoon is an interesting evaluation, but his ferocity and playmaking ability should help him become an instant starter in the NFL.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Texas Tech EDGE Tyree Wilson
Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith loves dynamic running backs, but this slot feels too rich for Texas’s Bijan Robinson. Similarly, cornerback is an option, but the Jeffrey Okudah trade means they don’t have to reach for a cornerback.
It might not be their biggest need after the free agent signings of Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree, but Tyree Wilson is too talented to pass up on. There have been discussions about power-based rushers in the NFL, but Wilson is capable of breaking the mold and being a disruptive pass rusher for a long time.
9. Chicago Bears: Ohio State OT Paris Johnson, Jr.
Addressing the offensive line is the no-brainer for the Chicago Bears, especially with an offensive tackle like Paris Johnson, Jr. on the board. Not only is Johnson versatile enough to play a few positions along the offensive line, but drafting him allows the Bears to move Teven Jenkens to guard, a position he flashed at last season. This might not be the final solution to a great offensive line, but Johnson will be a good starter in the league for a long time, and the Bears desperately need that.
10. Philadelphia Eagles: Georgia EDGE Nolan Smith
An offensive lineman is an option here, especially if the Philadelphia Eagles want to plan for life without right tackle Lane Johnson. You also can’t rule out Howie Roseman trading down to get more assets, especially if a team wants to trade up for Will Levis.
However, there’s a need for more pass-rushing impact, and there’s an edge rusher that fits in perfectly. Georgia’s Nolan Smith has enjoyed a successful pre-draft cycle, capped off by insane numbers at the NFL Scouting Combine. That performance likely helped push Smith into the top 10, where a team like Philadelphia can take him. Smith might not be an instant starter for the Eagles, but they don’t need him to be as long as Josh Sweat and Haason Reddick are in the fold.
11. Tennessee Titans: Kentucky QB Will Levis
Reports have surfaced that the Tennessee Titans have lost faith in Malik Willis, and that’s a logical conclusion given last season’s events. The Titans benched Willis for Joshua Dobbs at the end of last season, pushing them out of playoff contention.
While the Titans have Ryan Tannehill still, attempting to find an upgrade is a top priority. While Will Levis isn’t a guaranteed solution, the Titans are in a situation where they can bet on his physical traits. Levis will likely need some time on the bench, so look for Tannehill to start next season.
12. Houston Texans: Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Like with their first pick, there are a few directions the Houston Texans can go with this pick. They still need some pass-rushing help, but I don’t think the value fits here. They could also trade down, but it’s hard to find a partner with the current board.
As a result, a wide receiver feels like the most likely pick, especially when Stroud’s college teammate is on the board. Jaxon Smith-Njigba will likely be limited in his NFL fit, but finding a way that he succeeds won’t be difficult. Smith-Njigba gets open in tight spaces and should be an immediate blanket for the Stroud in the short and intermediate part of the field.
13. Green Bay Packers: Northwestern OT Peter Skoronski
The Green Bay Packers need to find a way to move Elgton Jenkins from right tackle to guard, and a player like Peter Skoronski should help do that. There are questions about Skoronski’s arm length and how it translates to right tackle at the next level, but it’s still worth taking him at this point in the draft. Worst case scenario, he’s a starting quality offensive guard, and the Packers keep Jenkins at right tackle. However, if his arm length doesn’t prove to be a hindrance, then Skoronski can enjoy a long career at tackle.
14. New England Patriots: Georgia OT Broderick Jones
Prepare for a run on offensive tackles at some point in this draft. There are a few first-round quality tackles and plenty of teams that could use them. In particular, this three-team stretch beginning with Green Bay seems like the most likely scenario.
In the case of New England, the combination of Trent Brown and Riley Reiff isn’t solving many problems long-term, and finding a reliable tackle should be a priority. Broderick Jones is a hyper-athletic offensive tackle who checks all the physical boxes and should hear his name called early during the NFL Draft.
15. New York Jets: Tennessee OT Darnell Wright
After finally acquiring Aaron Rodgers via trade, the New York Jets shift their focus toward the offensive line. Between the age of Duane Brown and the uncertainty around Mekhi Becton’s health, taking someone who can start at either offensive tackle makes a lot of sense. Tennessee’s Darnell Wright is likely a right tackle in the NFL, but that’s fine for the Jets, who can get younger (and potentially better) at the position.
16. Washington Commanders: Alabama S Brian Branch
If the Washington Commanders choose to address the secondary, they could take either a cornerback or safety, but with Brian Branch on the board, the decision might make itself. Branch is a versatile player who could play in different spots, including nickel cornerback. As a result, selecting Branch could help address both the cornerback and safety positions for the Commanders.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Penn State CB Joey Porter, Jr.
There’s a general rule of thumb to follow when predicting who the Pittsburgh Steelers will select in the first round of the NFL Draft. If head coach Mike Tomlin attended their pro day, they’re a candidate for the Steelers. If not, look elsewhere.
Tomlin attended Joey Porter Jr.’s pro day, and the organizational links between Tomlin and Porter Jr.’s father, Joey Sr., make this a likely pick. Porter Jr. will likely be limited to specific schemes in the NFL, but he has all the traits to be a high-level CB1 for a long time.
18. Detroit Lions: Clemson EDGE Myles Murphy
Jameson Williams’s six-game suspension likely means the Detroit Lions will be in the market for another pass catcher, but selecting one in the first round doesn’t seem likely. Instead, it feels like a better bet to go defense, especially with their struggles on that side of the ball last season. Now, the question becomes, which position do they address?
With the importance pass rush is having on the NFL, taking another pass rusher seems like a logical next step. Now, that could be addressed through a player like Bryan Bresee, but taking someone who can get to the quarterback off the edge checks a lot of boxes. Myles Murphy seems like a logical fit here, especially with his scheme versatility as a player. Murphy’s burst and long arms make him a prospect that a team will have to find his best fit, but that fit could come in different spots on the field.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Oklahoma OT Anton Harrison
Quite a few offensive linemen could sneak into the first round, including Oklahoma’s Anton Harrison, whose draft stock is hard to pinpoint. Harrison’s length and size stand out on film, and the fact that he played left tackle is a positive. He’s not a perfect prospect, but it’s worth betting on a left tackle with NFL size. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feel like a logical fit later in the first round, especially with their need for offensive linemen. Harrison would likely start at right tackle, slotting in next to Tristan Wirfs to form a formidable combo.
20. Seattle Seahawks: Boston College WR Zay Flowers
Predicting this year’s wide receivers class feels like the most challenging part. There’s a scenario where four or more receivers go in the first round, but there’s equally a chance that one of the projected four falls out of the first round entirely. It’s also difficult to rank these four because they all have different play styles.
While some may not have Boston College’s Zay Flowers as the second-best wide receiver, there’s good reason to believe the NFL would like what he brings. The NFL has long valued speed, and Zay Flowers is Lightning McQueen on the football field. Combining that with his production in an anemic offense, it’s not hard to see the vision. While the Seattle Seahawks have two starting-quality wide receivers in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, finding a complementary option could take the offense to another level.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Texas RB Bijan Robinson
Austin Ekeler’s future in Los Angeles is uncertain, and as of today, he’s likely on the move in the foreseeable future. If that’s the case, the Chargers should focus on finding another running back to complement the superhero they have at quarterback.
While that doesn’t have to be in the first round, taking a player like Bijan Robinson is hard to pass up. Not only is he a physical runner capable of taking the bulk of the carries, but he’s a modern-day back who can be an additional target for their quarterback. That combination is intriguing, especially when the player’s tape looks more like a highlight film than a game.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Maryland CB Deonte Banks
Marcus Peters is a free agent, and the Baltimore Ravens have not indicated that they plan on signing him. If they don’t plan on returning to Peters after the draft, drafting a cornerback early should be the priority.
While there are a few ways the Ravens could go if cornerback is the option, Maryland’s Deonte Banks is a no-brainer. Not only did Banks hold his own against some of college football’s best wide receivers, including Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison, Jr., but he’s also a top-tier athlete, which should help his game translate well to the NFL.
23. Minnesota Vikings: TCU WR Quentin Johnston
Trading up remains a real option for the Minnesota Vikings, especially if they fall in love with a quarterback; however, trading up will take a team willing to move toward the end of the first round, which isn’t likely. As a result, the Vikings would be best fit staying put (or trading down) and selecting a player that can help them at a position of need.
Cornerback is a likely pick, but Deonte Banks going off the board makes this position a little unclear, and there’s still a major need at wide receiver. TCU’s Quentin Johnston has some problem catching the ball consistently, but his size and athleticism will be a natural fit next to Justin Jefferson.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Iowa EDGE Lukas Van Ness
There are a few ways the Jacksonville Jaguars can go with this pick. The offensive line is a need after Jawaan Taylor’s departure in free agency, and they could use another cornerback to help their secondary. However, taking another pass rusher would give the Jaguars another element of depth.
While they have Josh Allen and last year’s No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker, Lukas Van Ness’s versatility and power should pair nicely. He needs time to develop as a consistent pass rusher and will likely be limited early on, but the Jaguars can afford to use Van Ness in hyper-specific situations early on.
25. New York Giants: Minnesota iOL John Michael Schmitz
There’s been a lot of noise around the New York Giants and Minnesota’s John Michael Schmitz, and I’m willing to believe the pairing will happen. While some may think it’s a reach, interior offensive linemen have gone at this spot in the past, especially to teams that desperately need one. The Giants also need a cornerback and wide receiver, but both positions can be addressed later in the draft, especially with how the board fell.
26. Dallas Cowboys: Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer
Tight ends play an important role in the Dallas Cowboys offense, and they currently don’t have a starter there. While they could choose to take one later in the draft, being able to select a player like Michael Mayer makes a ton of sense. Although Mayer isn’t the most dynamic receiver in the class, he can still carve out a role as a chain-mover in any offense. Mayer won’t ever wow you, but he doesn’t have to because he’s a perfect combination of receiving ability and blocking upside.
27. Buffalo Bills: USC WR Jordan Addison
The Buffalo Bills still need another wide receiver alongside Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and Jordan Addison is the best option still on the board. That doesn’t mean the Bills will take him, but adding another receiving option should help maintain the longevity of the offense as they get into the deeper rounds of the playoffs. Addison’s injury last season killed some of his hype, but he’s still a dynamic wide receiver who can play inside and outside and should hear his name called on Thursday.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Mississippi State CB Emmanuel Forbes
Emmanuel Forbes’ size is a looming problem, but it could be fixed with a year in an NFL weight room. If that’s the case, whoever gets Forbes will enjoy a playmaking cornerback with good length and athleticism. The Cincinnati Bengals have solid cornerbacks, but finding a CB1 that teams fear could help unlock their entire defense. Forbes could certainly bust, but the traits of a high-end cornerback are there as long as he adds some size.
29. New Orleans Saints: Clemson iDL Bryan Bresee
This pick will likely be an interior defensive lineman, which leaves three real options. Calijah Kancey is a dynamic pass rusher, but his size leaves him a liability against the run. Mazi Smith has received first-round hype, but he doesn’t have third-down upside in the NFL. That leaves Clemson’s Bryan Bresee as the best of both worlds. Bresee had a tough season last year, but that could be chalked up to events that occurred off the field. When Bresee’s, he’s a player who can impact the game behind the line of scrimmage as a pass rusher, which should intrigue a team like the Saints.
30. Philadelphia Eagles: Syracuse OT Matthew Bergeron
This pick will likely surprise some people, but offensive tackle is such an important position that teams might try and secure their options in the first round. The Philadelphia Eagles are one of those teams that could use their second first-round pick on a long-term replacement for Lane Johnson, who turns 33 next month. Matthew Bergeron has great size and run-blocking technique and could continue to develop as a versatile tackle.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Iowa State EDGE Will McDonald IV
The Kansas City Chiefs don’t have a long list of needs, but getting additional front-seven help is probably near the top of their list. Will McDonald IV is an explosive athlete with great length and should find his way into the first round after a strong pre-draft showing. While he may not be able to play on all three downs early on, the Chiefs could limit him to third downs while he develops as a run defender.
