While pro days and top 30 meetings have yet to be completed and more than a month remains until the draft, the conclusion of the NFL Combine last week has brought a little bit of clarity into teams’ plans at the top of the order. Of course, we’ve seen smokescreens before, and what we perceive to be clarity could in fact be gamesmanship.
Either way, I thought I’d use the ever-accelerating rumor mill as an excuse to put together my first full mock draft of the draft cycle. While I did include trades, I did not include a general framework for compensation, so you’ll have to do that calculus yourself.
1.1 Carolina Panthers (via CHI): Ohio State QB CJ Stroud
Owner David Tepper pretty obviously wants a long-term solution at quarterback after the conclusion of the Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield experiments. New head coach Frank Reich is known as a premier quarterback developer. Those two factors led to Carolina pulling the trigger on a trade to move up to the #1 pick on Friday involving multiple first rounders.
You can find videos of Carolina’s new QB coach Josh McCown praising Stroud nearly endlessly for the way the Buckeye plays the position. Stroud also put on a show at the combine, dazzling those in attendance with a masterful display of ball placement during the throwing portion of the event. While he did not test, quarterback testing numbers are generally less important than they are at other positions. The placement Stroud showed at the combine has always been his calling card, but he showed late in the season that he has the functional mobility to survive in today’s NFL and profiles as the safest choice of the quarterbacks in this year’s draft.
1.2 Houston Texans: Alabama QB Bryce Young
Ultimately, this ends up working out for Houston, because I think Young is #1 on their board. There’s something to be said for the intangible feeling you get watching some prospects, and when you turn on Young’s film, you can tell he has it. The Heisman Trophy winner is also this year’s best player outside of structure, with the mobility to extend plays or take off and run and the aptitude to keep his eyes downfield to find receivers breaking open.
Where the trouble begins and ends with Young is the size, as we mentioned previously. The height, a verified 5’10 ⅛”, has long been the talking point, but I’ve long believed the playing weight is the real issue. Young came in at 204 pounds but did not participate in drills or throw at the combine, which is a sign that he’s not planning on playing at that weight whatsoever.
Compare Young to Kyler Murray, as many have because of their similar sizes, and you begin to see the dilemma with Young. Murray was short, yes, but many believed his 207 lb build could accommodate the rigors of an NFL season. That’s proven to be incorrect so far, and while Murray has shown incredible talent, injuries and fatigue in the second half of the season have always held him back from becoming a superstar. Could Young be on that same path?
1.3 Arizona Cardinals: Alabama EDGE Will Anderson Jr.
New GM Monti Ossenfort has said Arizona will listen to offers to trade down, but the state of this potential draft board makes a trade relatively unlikely in my opinion. The reasoning is fairly straightforward: Anderson is this year’s can’t miss prospect.
Widely talked about as this draft’s best overall player since he was a freshman, Anderson would have a real case for the #1 overall pick if quarterbacks weren’t such a premium position. Alas, quarterbacks run the world, and so Anderson will likely be available when the Cardinals hit the clock at #3. He disappointed some with testing numbers that were good but not exceptional at the combine, but turn on the film and you see an immediate difference-maker on an NFL team.
Alabama deployed Anderson on the interior as a pass rusher from the 4i spot often, but that’s not a great use of his talents. I’d much prefer to see him go to a system utilizing stand-up pass rushers, where he can get a bit more of a runway to chain together moves and get home to the quarterback. Arizona will install such a system with new defensive coordinator Nick Rallis coming from the Eagles.
1.4 Indianapolis Colts: Florida QB Anthony Richardson
Indianapolis has to take a quarterback after putting a Band-Aid on the position over the last few years since the retirement of Andrew Luck. While they could mortgage assets to move up and select their favorite option, I get the feeling that GM Chris Ballard will take a more measured approach and let the board fall to them.
The reason for this is twofold. One, Ballard hates drafting quarterbacks. It’s a big part of why Indianapolis has ridden the veteran carousel for so many years in a row. Two, there doesn’t seem to be a real consensus about the order of the draft’s top three signal callers. Unless you’re concerned about Arizona trading out to a higher bidder, sticking at 4 ensures at least one of them will be available. All of them have their flaws. Stroud is safe, but perhaps not franchise-transforming. Young is historically small.
And Richardson? Well, Richardson is raw, but not as raw as you might think. While obviously not a finished product, the former Gator is already an elite pocket manager, which bodes well for his transition to the pros where his offensive line may not be doing him a ton of favors. Indianapolis’ line is decent on paper, but underperformed in 2022 with immobile quarterback Matt Ryan playing a majority of games. With a transcendent rushing talent under center, that play could spike. The completion percentage number will be a point of discourse, but go back and watch Florida this season and chart how many of those incompletions were drops or poor plays by Richardson’s receivers.
1.5 Seattle Seahawks (via DEN): Georgia IDL Jalen Carter
The primary question with Carter leading up to the draft will be the two misdemeanor charges stemming from a January incident that resulted in the death of his teammate Devin Willock and a Georgia football staff member. Carter left the combine, where he was only participating in interviews, to post bail in Georgia before returning to Indianapolis to presumably clear the air with teams.
How it affects Carter’s stock is hard to get a read on. On the one hand, this is a rare talent on the defensive line, one who analysts have talked about as a surefire top 5 pick for nearly a full year. On the other, it’s an ongoing legal matter that we simply don’t have many details about. League sources have said that they strongly doubt Carter slips outside the top 10 if what we know now is the extent of things. If it’s less, he probably won’t make it outside the top 5.
For Seattle, Carter gives them an immediate pass-rushing presence from the interior with the quickness to teleport between gaps in the run game. While the stats don’t pop off the screen, it’s important to remember that Georgia rotates their defensive line a ton to keep players fresh.
1.6 Detroit Lions (via LAR): Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez
Quarterback is certainly an option for Detroit, but I’m generally of the opinion that Jared Goff played well enough in 2022 to convince the Lions to let it fly for another year, even if the public is not convinced. Instead, let’s pivot to the defense, where Detroit’s DBs underperformed all season, resulting in the midseason firing of pass game coordinator/DB coach Aubrey Pleasant.
Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn made clear at the combine that the Lions believe that NFL defenses are built through the defensive line and secondary. Detroit has already invested a top ten pick in the defensive line after selecting Aidan Hutchinson a season ago, and with former top 5 pick Jeff Okudah yet to find a stable footing as an NFL player, the Lions may very well turn to a historically athletic corner class to add talent.
The younger brother of Olympic 400 meter hurdler Melissa Gonzalez, Christian posted elite numbers in every category except the bench press at last week’s NFL Combine. With 4.38 speed, prototypical size, and top-notch explosiveness numbers, the closest comparison to Gonzalez according to the RAS website is All-Pro Jalen Ramsey. Detroit was thrown around as a potential trade destination for Ramsey before he was traded to the Dolphins, but sticking and picking at 6 could result in them finding a much cheaper stand-in.
1.7 Las Vegas Raiders: Kentucky QB Will Levis
Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels has made clear that he wants the next Raiders quarterback to be in silver and black for a long time, and that vision lines up with Las Vegas’ timeline for competition. With the reigning Super Bowl champions in the division, it’s not likely that the Raiders will make any tangible progress towards consistent competition with a series of bridge players at the position.
Vegas has also been rumored to be gauging the market for a trade up to secure one of the draft’s top three quarterbacks, but I think there’s no shame in settling for Levis. McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler both come from New England, where character is a premium trait, and Levis reportedly blew teams away in interviews. League sources also say Levis is likely to whiteboard well, another Patriots-like quality that the Raiders will surely be interested in.
According to MockDraftable, Levis’ closest athletic comparison is Packers QB Jordan Love, and I think the timeline for Levis should be relatively similar to what it’s been for Love in the NFL. His future NFL destination will need a starter in place in front of him, because his footwork and mechanics are very much a work in progress. Lofty interception numbers over the past two seasons are also perhaps an indication of problems reading defenses. But with a year or two (or three, like Love) to develop behind a veteran, Levis could very well fix those flaws and hit the ground running as a starter.
1.8 Atlanta Falcons: Texas Tech EDGE Tyree Wilson
Atlanta has struggled to rush the passer ever since Vic Beasley’s 15.5 sack season in 2016, and while they’ve made progress with last year’s selections of Arnold Ebiketie and DeAngelo Malone, there’s still work to be done. Wilson has risen in recent weeks as league sources have toyed with the idea that he might be EDGE1 in this year’s class, but the way the board falls in this mock leaves him available at 8.
I don’t really buy the rumors that Atlanta is in the rookie quarterback market this season, if only because it’s simply never the way that Arthur Smith nor GM Terry Fontenot have ever operated in previous stops. The NFC South is weak, certainly, but giving up assets to move up in the draft and select a quarterback seems like bad process when that opportunity was also available in 2021. Kyle Pitts has been a good player, don’t get me wrong, but the quarterbacks available at that fourth overall pick were all (in my opinion) better players than the options available this season.
Corner is also an option, but Smith and Fontenot come from organizations that build through the trenches. Adding legitimate pass rushing threats also takes some pressure off of the secondary, which means whoever the CB2 opposite AJ Terrell is has less on their plate.
1.9 Chicago Bears (via CAR): Ohio State OT Paris Johnson Jr.
By virtue of trading down, Chicago misses out on both Anderson and Carter. That stings, but the Bears also have the second most cap space in the league entering free agency. That probably plays into the move down this early: with their draft assets finalized, Chicago knows where they need to spend their free agent dollars.
After moving down to 9, let’s go ahead and assume that Chicago scoops up the top defensive line talent in free agency. Their pick in this range then becomes a connect-the-dots puzzle: the Bears need offensive line help after letting Justin Fields get hammered all season. They’ve met with Johnson, who’s in the mix as the draft’s top tackle. Johnson and Fields and reportedly still close friends from their time at Ohio State.
There are reasons to be optimistic about 2022 starter Braxton Jones, but kicking him into a swing tackle role gives the Bears quality depth while adding a player who is already familiar with Fields. Given the quarterback’s propensity to hold the ball a touch too long and/or extend plays outside the pocket, that familiarity should help Johnson excel in the Bears offense right away.
1.10 New York Jets (via NO via PHI): Northwestern OT Peter Skoronski
With both Mekhi Becton and Duane Brown both only under contract through 2023 (Becton has a fifth-year option available), the Jets may yet again be spending a first round pick on the offensive line. And, with Tennessee likely in the offensive line market as well, GM Joe Douglas could make the call to his old boss in Philadelphia to make sure the Jets get their guy. NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah has compared Skoronski to current Jet Alijah Vera-Tucker, so there’s already precedent for Douglas to select similar players.
The big debate with Skoronski is whether he’s a guard or a tackle. With 32 ¼” arms, Skoronski is ¾” short of most NFL teams’ benchmark of 33” to play tackle in the pros, but it’s not often that a three year starter at a (basement dwelling) Big Ten team comes available. We had this same debate about Rashawn Slater in 2021, only for Slater to dominate the NFL as soon as he stepped onto the field. Now, if you want to move Skoronski to guard, I think he’ll be dominant. But he deserves a shot at tackle first.
That’s what makes the Jets such an interesting landing spot. If Becton returns healthy and plays at the level New York has always envisioned, Skoronski can kick inside to guard and both of those spots are solidified with him and Vera-Tucker. Vera-Tucker could also kick outside to right tackle if the Jets have a logjam at guard. If the Jets decline Becton’s option and let him walk after this season, Skoronski can be their long-term answer at left tackle.
1.11 Tennessee Titans: Iowa EDGE Lukas Van Ness
Tennessee just cut Bud Dupree after two injury-marred years that prevented him from ever reaching the level of play expected when the Titans gave him a five year, $82.5 million contract in the 2021 offseason. While they also cut left tackle Taylor Lewan, opening up a hole at left tackle, I think the gap from Van Ness and Nolan Smith to the next tier of edge rushers is bigger than that from Broderick Jones to the next tier of tackles.
So, the offensive line becomes more of a second round problem and the Titans go for Van Ness, who I think fits their profile a bit better than Smith does. The Hawkeye is a stout and powerful pass rusher with plenty of room for further development. The narrative about Van Ness never starting at Iowa has been beaten to death, but it does illuminate the fact that he’s gained 32 pounds of functional weight in three seasons after arriving in Iowa as a 240 pound defensive lineman.
Tennessee will always value power, and that seems to still be true under new GM Ran Carthon. It’s less so that Smith doesn’t have that power and more that Van Ness simply has more of it. With names like Robert Quinn and Cameron Jordan on his MockDraftable comparisons list, there’s certainly something to work with when it comes to Van Ness, and Mike Vrabel is precisely the kind of coach who I’d trust with that type of project.
1.12 Houston Texans (via CLE): Georgia EDGE Nolan Smith
Smith is the highest on the board as far as combine standouts go, and his 4.39 40 yard dash and 41 ½” vertical in Indianapolis certainly did plenty to turn some heads. What struck me the most, however, was the way Smith handled himself in interviews. While not always a one-to-one comparison, interviewing well with the media can often be an indication of interview aptitude with teams, and Smith came across as the type of player who will have teams lined up around the block to draft him.
One of the leaders on Georgia’s back-to-back national championship teams, Smith has flown a bit under the radar because of a torn pectoral that took away most of his 2022 season. Many people were concerned about his weight at 238 pounds, which is in the 2nd percentile according to MockDraftable. But turn on the tape, and it’s obvious that Smith has functional, translatable power despite his slender frame.
A former #1 overall recruit, Smith has the vibe of a true culture changer on defense for an NFL team. With Houston overhauling its coaching staff and roster (again), and still emerging from the shadow of the Deshaun Watson saga, a presence like Smith’s would bring a level of stability the franchise has lacked since the departure of JJ Watt. A wide receiver to aid Bryce Young’s transition to the pros could also be in the cards here, but ultimately I think the value for this class lies further down the board. With Young and Smith aboard, Houston would have a cornerstone on both sides of the ball.
1.13 Philadelphia Eagles (via NYJ): Texas RB Bijan Robinson
Even with cornerback Darius Slay suddenly the center of trade rumors, something tells me Howie Roseman will still not draft a corner in the first round. Drafting a player at a position of depressed value is also not in Roseman’s character, but I think this move still makes sense for a few reasons.
The first reason: because Philadelphia is trading down in this scenario, they’ll have more bites at the apple in the middle rounds and don’t have to sell themselves on drafting a running back in the top ten. The Eagles currently have a stretch of 125 picks between the third and seventh round where they own zero picks, and that’s going to change. The second reason: running back, especially in the earlier rounds, is a luxury pick. Philadelphia is one of the few teams in the position to be making such a selection. Most, if not all, of their needs have already been backfilled: Jordan Davis was drafted to plan for Fletcher Cox’s decline. Cameron Jurgens waits in the wings for the decline of Jason Kelce. Corner is the one exception here, but the Eagles seemingly want Slay on the roster to begin the year, with money the current obstacle towards making that a reality.
The third, and perhaps most important reason: Bijan Robinson is the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley. Philadelphia will likely lose Miles Sanders in free agency, leaving them with Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott in the backfield. Even when accounting for the way Jalen Hurts changes the calculus in the run game, the Eagles need something more, especially if they want to leave space open for AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith to operate in the passing game. Robinson is a transcendent talent, one that would elevate the Eagles offense to the heights required to consistently compete with teams like the Chiefs.
1.14 New England Patriots: Boston College WR Zay Flowers
I know you’re probably surprised. Flowers has only recently entered the debate at WR1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, and Jordan Addison have largely dominated that conversation for most of the season. New England has other needs they could address, namely on the offensive line or in the secondary. But if there’s one thing that’s always been true about the Patriots under Bill Belichick, it’s that they do not care about your draft boards.
New England only cares about their own board, which tends to vary drastically from the rest of the league’s and the public’s. It’s what led them to select Cole Strange in the first round last season. When it comes to Flowers, where there’s smoke, there’s fire. The Boston College receiver surprised a lot of people by attending the Shrine Bowl instead of the Senior Bowl, generally thought of as the marquee all-star event. But in Las Vegas, Flowers spent the entire week embedded with the Patriots coaching staff. Rumors spread that New England was keyed in on the receiver to finally fix a lingering issue at the position.
Listen, maybe all this is hearsay. That’s certainly possible, and all-star events are notorious for coloring our perceptions of players months before the draft actually occurs. But I wouldn’t be shocked to see Flowers come off the board this early. He’s one of the few inside-outside versatile players in this draft, and it’s easy to tell that his movements with the ball in his hands are simply of a different caliber than some of his peers. The Patriots need to address the position, especially with Jakobi Meyers likely suiting up elsewhere in 2023, and they’ll take the top player on their board.
1.15 Green Bay Packers: Alabama S Brian Branch
Green Bay’s safety situation is in flux with the inconsistent play of Darnell Savage and Adrian Amos set to hit free agency. Even if those spots are nailed down, the Packers also need a consistent contributor in the slot. Branch can fill both holes as Alabama’s STAR over the past few seasons. Don’t let his time as a nickel fool you, though: the junior is more than capable of taking on a more traditional role. Alabama simply had two seniors starting over him in the backfield.
Tight end and receiver are possibilities here as well, especially to build for what is likely the beginning of the Jordan Love era. But Green Bay’s resistance to taking a pass-catcher early on is less about Aaron Rodgers and more about an organizational philosophy. With Preston Smith and Rashan Gary entrenched on the edge, I also don’t see a first round pick at that spot as a likely outcome.
1.16 Washington Commanders: Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon
Witherspoon could very well go higher than this by the time April rolls around, but without athletic testing information, I wouldn’t be overly surprised if he slipped a bit over his peak projections in the top 10. A hamstring issue kept the corner from working out at the combine or Illinois’ pro day last week, but he’ll reportedly work out at his own pro day in early April. By then, we’ll likely have more clarity about where he stands.
A physical, press corner with battle-tested experience in the Big Ten, Witherspoon would pair well with incumbents Kendall Fuller and Benjamin St-Juste and give what is now a historically expensive defensive line more time to operate.
1.17 Pittsburgh Steelers: Penn State CB Joey Porter Jr.
This just feels like the perfect marriage between story and need. Porter is, of course, the son of former Steelers linebacker Joey Porter, which is obvious both because of the name and because he plays pretty much exactly like his dad would if he was a corner. Pittsburgh is also in need of a corner after the failed William Jackson experiment that resulted in his release earlier this week. Levi Wallace and Cameron Sutton are currently penciled in as the starters and Sutton is set to hit free agency.
Pittsburgh is notorious for telegraphing their intentions during the pro day circuit, with longtime GM Kevin Colbert and head coach Mike Tomlin’s attendance almost always an indication of who the Steelers plan on selecting early on. Perhaps that changes now that Colbert has retired, but it’ll still be worth keeping an eye on whether Tomlin and new GM Omar Khan make the short drive to State College.
1.18 Detroit Lions: Clemson EDGE Myles Murphy
After passing on quarterback at 6, there’s really no more options left for Detroit at 18. We talked earlier about how the Lions have already invested a top ten pick on the defensive line, which was the reasoning for not selecting one earlier on, but ultimately this is a Dan Campbell football team. They want to build through the trenches and hit you in the mouth.
GM Brad Holmes is slightly more analytically inclined, but with Murphy slipping in this mock primarily due to the combine performances of other players, I think he and Campbell would be able to find common ground with this pick. Murphy is a power-first pass rusher without much of a defined plan afterwards, but new defensive line coach John Scott Jr. is used to molding balls of clay into refined sack artists after a stint as Penn State’s defensive line coach. Murphy did not test at the combine but reportedly shines in interviews, another trait the Lions have valued during the Holmes/Campbell era.
1.19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Georgia OT Broderick Jones
Tampa Bay is one of the hardest teams to select for because they seem to be in full-on teardown mode following the retirement of Tom Brady. Trading up for a quarterback seems like it should be in the cards, but instead we’ve gotten reports that the Bucs want to give 2021 second rounder Kyle Trask a chance to start this season. That indicates that Tampa will sign a veteran, likely someone like Baker Mayfield, to compete with Trask.
Bijan Robinson has been a popular pick at 19, but I doubt he’ll make it that far. In lieu of that, let’s go offensive line to replace the recently released Donovan Smith. Regardless of who’s starting in 2023, they’ll need to be protected from the likes of Cameron Jordan and Brian Burns in the NFC South. There’s not a clear replacement at left tackle on the roster for Tampa, either. Jones is the rawest of the top three offensive linemen, but I’d also bet on him having the highest ceiling of the three. If Tampa’s timeline to competition is as long as it seems, that could mean Jones comes into his own right as the Bucs are ready to make another run at the Lombardi trophy.
1.20 Seattle Seahawks: Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Zay Flowers to the Patriots rumors aside, this is about the range of the draft at which I expect the receivers to start coming off the board. Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, and Jordan Addison all have a case to be the next guy off the board. Prospects like Jalin Hyatt could also sneak into the back half of the first. Ultimately, I think Smith-Njigba is the best fit for Seattle, who already has a behemoth on the outside (DK Metcalf) and established deep threat (Tyler Lockett).
While the decision to not run the 40 dominated the discussion of Smith-Njigba’s combine performance, it overshadowed some downright ridiculous agility numbers. That makes his role at the next level fairly obvious: he’ll operate from the slot and create separation underneath to move the chains. Factor in the fact that everyone around the Buckeyes program says Smith-Njigba is a better receiver than Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, and suddenly his stock seems like it should be on the up and up.
1.21 Los Angeles Chargers: Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer
After restructuring Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Khalil Mack, and Joey Bosa, I think GM Tom Telesco sent a clear message: the Chargers are going all in on 2023. When you think about it, it makes sense: neither Telesco nor Brandon Staley’s jobs are safe heading into the season. If things go well, you can worry about fixing the salary cap and roster construction later. If they go poorly, it’s someone else’s problem!
With the knowledge that 2023 is the focus, I don’t see LA selecting a player that won’t be a consistent contributor from Day 1. That rules out receiver, where a pick would be playing 60-70% of snaps behind Allen and Williams. It rules out pass rusher, where a pick would log maybe 50% of snaps. But it opens a spot at tight end, even if Gerald Everett and Donald Parham both return. Mayer has often been compared to Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz, a staple of Kellen Moore’s offense who has been linked to the Chargers despite LA not having anywhere near the money to pay him in free agency this offseason. Mayer gives them a cheaper option that will affect the bottom line from the get-go.
1.22 Baltimore Ravens: TCU WR Quentin Johnston
I’m running this mock draft under the assumption that Baltimore eventually figures something out with Lamar Jackson, whether that’s playing on the franchise tag or hammering out a long-term deal. Regardless of outcome, if you want to avoid this situation again with Jackson, you have to add to the receiver room. Rashod Bateman’s health hasn’t cooperated early in his NFL career and the remaining options on the roster are fine but not good NFL options.
I want Johnston to play more aggressively considering his 6’2”, 206 lb frame, but the good news is that he’s a legit run after the catch threat and flashed a huge catch radius during workouts at the combine. Jackson has never had the faith in his receivers to attack defenses outside the numbers because of their abysmal contested catch rates, but Johnston has that ability if you can coach him up just the tiniest bit to trust his hands to make catches instead of keeping his body in play as a backboard for his receptions.
1.23 Minnesota Vikings: Maryland CB Deonte Banks
Following the release of Adam Thielen, a receiver is certainly in play with this pick. But neither starting cornerback is returning for Minnesota either after the release of Cameron Dantzler and the impending free agency of Patrick Peterson. Dantzler wasn’t a scheme fit in Brian Flores’ new defense, so his release isn’t a huge shock, but it does reinforce that the Vikings need a cornerback.
Banks has rocketed up draft boards after surprising people by declaring early for the draft, but as analysts have circled back to his tape, it’s become more and more obvious why he was confident in his NFL prospects this season. A nasty run supporter with good ball skills and elite athleticism, Banks would likely walk into a starting role in Minnesota and provide at least some stability while the Vikings work out the remainder of the depth chart between Duke Shelley, Andrew Booth Jr., and Akayleb Evans.
1.24 Jacksonville Jaguars: Georgia TE Darnell Washington
Evan Engram will return after being franchise tagged early on in the offseason, but I still expect Jacksonville to be in the market for another tight end. Doug Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor were both in Philadelphia when they spent an ungodly amount of time in 12 personnel, and while Chris Manhertz gives Jacksonville the ability to play 12 as virtually a sixth offensive lineman, he’s not much of a receiving threat.
Washington is, and he’s a freakish athlete, and he’s used to playing a ton of 12 personnel after spending most of his college career taking a backseat to Brock Bowers at Georgia. The AFC is rapidly becoming an arms race as teams realize that Patrick Mahomes transcends any and all defensive performance, which leaves Jacksonville in need of a few more weapons to keep up. With Christian Kirk, a reinstated Calvin Ridley, Engram, and Washington, they’d have more firepower than all but a handful of teams in the league.
1.25 New York Giants: USC WR Jordan Addison
The Giants’ best wide receiver last season was someone named Isaiah Hodgins, who I was familiar with because I’m a degenerate that has followed the draft closely for my entire life. But to most people, Hodgins is a classic “who?” player. New York recently re-signed Sterling Shepard, but it seems like Darius Slayton will test free agency, which will only leave the Giants with a larger need at the position. Daniel Jones will return on a (gargantuan) new deal, as will the franchise tagged Saquon Barkley, but the Giants need more juice from the receiver room if they want to make progress.
That’s where Addison comes in. A former Biletnikoff winner, the main concern pushing Addison down the board is his slight frame, which will keep him exclusively in the slot. He also didn’t test particularly well at the combine, but reportedly was injured midway through workouts, so we’ll have to see if his numbers improve at USC’s pro day later this month. Regardless, Addison fits into the quick game the Giants should continue to rely on with Jones at the helm.
1.26 Dallas Cowboys: Utah TE Dalton Kincaid
Dalton Schultz is going to get paid in free agency by someone, and it’s not going to be Dallas. They’ve already franchise tagged Tony Pollard in addition to the huge contracts of Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Gallup, Tyron Smith, and Zack Martin, which simply does not leave room for another highly paid player. That’s especially true with CeeDee Lamb due for an extension. Without Schultz, Dallas has a bunch of fine tight ends on the roster, but none who really pique my interest as receivers.
Kincaid, as it turns out, is the best receiving tight end in the draft. A back injury has dampened his stock following the combine, which is what results in him coming off the board as TE3 in this mock draft, but he was the engine that made Utah’s offense go in 2022. Given that Dallas’ offense will look largely the same after promoting from within to replace Kellen Moore, they’ll need to find someone to replace Schultz’s production as a receiver. Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot aren’t going to do that.
1.27 Buffalo Bills: Florida IOL O'Cyrus Torrence
A lot of people want the Bills to upgrade at running back, seemingly including GM Brandon Beane. I understand that temptation, especially with Devin Singletary set to hit free agency, but Bijan Robinson is long gone and nobody else in this class is worthy of a first round pick. Even so, I’m of the opinion that Buffalo’s struggles in the run game have just as much to do with the offensive line as they do the running backs.
Torrence is a massive people mover at 330 pounds who would immediately upgrade those issues and open up some more holes for whoever is taking handoffs from Josh Allen. 2022’s starting left guard Rodger Saffold is a free agent and just so happens to play the same side of the line Torrence does. While I’m primarily drafting him to improve the run game, Torrence also never gave up a sack in over 3,000 snaps of action between Louisiana and Florida. That’ll be music to Bills fans ears after seeing Josh Allen get sacked 33 times in 2022.
1.28 Cincinnati Bengals: Oklahoma OT Anton Harrison
Signing La’el Collins was a misstep for the Bengals, as the former Cowboy has been an up-and-down player while dealing with injury issues. Cincinnati will now have a decision to make with Collins, who’s recovering from an ACL tear in December but remains a cut candidate. Left tackle Jonah Williams is also not locked in beyond 2023, nor has he been consistent enough to warrant ample confidence going forward.
Harrison primarily played left tackle at Oklahoma, but he does have one start at right tackle from the 2022 season opener, so there are a few different options for him if he lands in Cincinnati. He could start at right tackle if the Bengals move on from Collins (or if Collins isn’t healthy). If Collins can and does play in Cincinnati in 2023, Harrison could be a super sub swing tackle as a rookie before taking over on either side for 2024 and beyond. That flexibility makes me think he’s a more likely option than someone like Tennessee’s Darnell Wright or Ohio State’s Dawand Jones.
1.29 New Orleans Saints (via SF): Clemson IDL Bryan Bresee
The Saints currently have one defensive tackle on the roster: 2022 UDFA and future contract signee Prince Emili, who has three career tackles for the Bills. Everyone else is a free agent, which gives New Orleans a great excuse to rebuild the room in a new image, especially given their yearly exercise of creating cap space out of thin air in order to field a functional team. After ranking 17th in run defense DVOA last season, a drop from their usual performance, the Saints seem like they will want to move in new directions anyhow.
Bresee is probably more talented than the 29th overall selection, but he’s a confusing evaluation. Watch 2021, and Bresee looks like an immediate difference maker. But watch 2022, a season marred by the untimely death of his sister, a kidney infection, and an overall step back in performance from every member of Clemson’s defensive line, and Bresee looks like an average NFL player. Separating how much of that decline was due to the circumstances and how much was due to his play is a tall task. But the end of the first round is about the range at which you start to take those chances, and if he pans out, he’d keep the Saints defense humming for years to come.
1.30 Philadelphia Eagles: Pitt IDL Calijah Kancey
Philadelphia is not going to leave the first round without taking a trench player. That’s simply not the way Howie Roseman operates, especially not if they spend their first pick on a running back as we have them doing earlier in this draft. Interior pass rusher Javon Hargrave is set to leave in free agency with a massive contract looming and no obvious replacement on the roster, which is a rarity for the Eagles under Roseman.
So, that brings us to Kancey. I’m not 100% convinced that Kancey will be available this late because of his historical testing in the 40 yard dash, including his 10 yard split, both of which were above the 95th percentile at the position. But his physical measurables, from height to weight to hand size to arm length, were all lower than the 10th percentile. He’s historically small, and it shows up in run defense. But Hargrave wasn’t a stellar run defender either, and the Eagles have Jordan Davis to swallow gaps for that reason. That makes me think they’ll be the most risk-tolerant when it comes to Kancey.
1.31 Kansas City Chiefs: Ohio State OT Dawand Jones
Right tackle Andrew Wylie is set to hit free agency after an average 2022 season, and backup Lucas Niang has never quite developed the way Kansas City imagined when they drafted him in 2020. Left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. is also a free agent after not being franchise tagged, so a complete overhaul of the tackle situation may be in order for the Chiefs. The fact that both of those spots are open makes me think Anton Harrison will be very much on their radar, but he’s already off the board in this scenario.
Instead, let’s pivot to Jones, an absolute behemoth whose measurements are all in the 97th percentile or higher for the tackle position. A stupidly powerful blocker who dominated the run game and kept CJ Stroud upright at Ohio State, Jones’ primary flaw is dealing with speed off the edge. Try to go into his chest first and then win, however, and he’ll stonewall you. A right tackle only, Jones reminds me a bit of a supersized DJ Fluker – a hyper-powerful player from a blue-chip school who will be more effective in the run game than in pass protection.
