Sometimes by midseason you have a good idea of who the NFL’s MVP will be, and 2019 was one of those years.
That fall, Lamar Jackson’s first as a full-time starting quarterback in Baltimore, it seemed like the Ravens’ second-year dynamo was doing something jaw-dropping or historic (or both) every week. By the end of that season, any doubt had been erased. Jackson became the second player to win the AP’s award unanimously.
Jackson hasn’t set social media ablaze this year with his highlights or seized the talk-radio conversation as often as he did four years ago. But as for the respect he’s getting across the league? I can say for a fact that it’s as resounding as ever.
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On Wednesday and Thursday, I ran my annual awards midseason poll with execs across the NFL. Every year I send the ballots to GMs, assistant GMs, vice presidents, directors of player personnel and pro scouting directors—the people charged with having eyes on the whole league during the season.
This year, 39 ballots were returned. I was expecting a close race for MVP based on how the season has gone, but that was not the case. Jackson received 23 votes, while the next highest vote-getter had five.
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And the explanations I got from voters for Jackson being the best player in the NFL were pretty resounding.
“Best, most dominant player, playing at the highest level, at the most important position,” texted one AFC executive.
“For me, he’s the best player on a top team playing the toughest position in sports,” texted another AFC exec. “His ability to put stress on teams in the passing game now is huge—and in the past it was just O.K. In my opinion, if [the Ravens] lost him, they’d crash and burn.”
“He just makes it so tough to defend him,” a fourth AFC exec said. “Throwing it better, their pass game has improved, and then you can do everything right—and he runs for it.”
“This is the best he has thrown the ball since his 2019 MVP year,” texted an AFC GM. “I think [Todd] Monken was a fantastic hire and he has implemented a passing game that accentuates Lamar’s strengths without taking away any of his improvisational ability.”
“It’s confidence—he just looks like he’s playing with it, he’s playing really comfortable with himself, “ texted an NFC exec. “I don’t know if it’s the contract resolution or Monken or both. But he’s a dynamic player that’s also been extremely consistent. Health obviously [is a factor]. He’s simply putting the ball in the end zone as a passer and runner, and he’s very clean operating their passing game.”
The numbers do tell the story.
He’s running the ball 9.3 times per game, down from 11.7 in 2019. At his current pace, he’ll rush for a little more than 800 yards—still a huge number for a quarterback, but not close to the 1,206 he had in his first MVP season. He is on pace for more rushing touchdowns (10) this year than he had that year (seven).
On the flip side, he’s averaging more than 28 pass attempts per game, by far a career high, while completing 71.5% of his passes—which is more than 5% above his previous high. And if he finishes with 3,690 yards passing for the season, he’ll have thrown for more than 500 yards than he ever has in his pro career. While his touchdowns passes are down, his three interceptions put him on track for a career low, too.
The bottom line: As that second AFC exec explained it, the Ravens (7–2) have a couple of times—against Detroit and Seattle—looked like the NFL’s best team. And that’s due to Jackson, who is held in high regard by Ravens’ folks as well as rival teams.
And with that, let’s dive into our 2023 NFL Midseason Exec Awards …
Most Valuable Player
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Winner: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (23 votes)
Also receiving votes: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (5), Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (3), Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (3), Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (2), Bills QB Josh Allen (1), Eagles WR A.J. Brown (1), Bengals QB Joe Burrow (1)
What was most interesting here was how the vote was all over the place outside of Jackson. Eight players received mention, including two receivers. And that shows—if the Ravens slip a little—there is a crowd of players ready to make a move. But again, the biggest takeaway is how Jackson’s growth as an all-around quarterback—in his first year after getting a new contract and first year with a new coordinator—was recognized.
Offensive Player of the Year
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Winner: Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (21)
Also receiving votes: Brown (7), 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (6), Jackson (4), Mahomes (1)
Hill was also the runaway choice at midseason last year—before Justin Jefferson’s surge down the stretch changed the dynamic. At this point last year, Hill was on pace for 144 catches, 2,085 yards and six touchdowns (he wound up at 119, 1,710, seven). This year, he’s on pace for 130 catches, 2,032 yards and 15 touchdowns. So the biggest difference? This year he’s consistently getting in the end zone, a product of more consistently getting behind the defense downfield, which is inexplicable considering all that defensive coaches do to stop him. And that flows back into the best thing you can say about Hill: There’s no one quite like him (though Brown is certainly in play to swipe the award from Hill like Jefferson did last year).
Defensive Player of the Year
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Winner: Browns DE Myles Garrett (23)
Also receiving votes: Cowboys OLB Micah Parsons (6), Steelers OLB T.J. Watt (6), Raiders DE Maxx Crosby (4)
Both Garrett and Parsons are on the list of guys who will, sometime soon, take home this award for the first time, given the rare level of play both are capable of on a down-to-down and game-to-game basis. (Crosby’s knocking on the door of getting into that group, too.) And this is starting to seem like the year for Garrett. He had a signature game against the Colts in which he basically willed the Browns to a win with two strip sacks and a blocked field goal in the first half alone. The defense he’s the focal point of is ranked No. 1 in the NFL under Jim Schwartz and has carried the offense through some choppy waters. His numbers are there, too; he’s on a 20-sack pace, which would put him on track for a career year statistically. So with the acknowledgement that Parsons could have a run at this award—if the Cowboys get hot—Garrett is the logical pick.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
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Winner: Texans QB C.J. Stroud (36)
Also receiving votes: Vikings WR Jordan Addison (1.5), Rams WR Puka Nacua (1.5)
Were you watching Sunday when Stroud passed for 470 yards and five touchdowns? Stroud is doing things that are rare for a rookie and that made him easily the most decisive pick among the 39 execs we had voting on these awards. His numbers read like those of an MVP candidate—he has 2,270 yards, 14 touchdowns, just one pick and a 102.9 passer rating through eight games. It’s also happened with the Texans working through a ton of offensive line injuries, and with new pieces and coaches everywhere on offense. Stroud’s elevated young receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell and veteran Noah Brown; masked line mishaps; and brought Houston back in key situations (such as the one Sunday, down 37–33 with 46 seconds left and a full field to drive). Stroud, quite simply, along with new coach DeMeco Ryans, has changed the perception of the Texans overnight.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
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Winner: Eagles DT Jalen Carter (21)
Also receiving votes: Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon (14), Chargers OLB Tuli Tuipulotu (3), Rams OLB Byron Young (1)
The questions about Carter going into April’s draft never had anything to do with whether he could play. The four sacks he’s posted are just the beginning of the story of a guy who’s already a headache for offenses. He played the fourth most snaps among the Philly defensive linemen in Sunday’s win over Dallas—in for nearly 70% of the team’s defensive plays—and is close to 50% of the snaps for the season despite missing a game. And that’s a good sign that Philly sees this as just the beginning for a guy who stands to be the heir to the three-technique throne in Philly.
Coach of the Year
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Winner: Dan Campbell, Lions (13)
Also receiving votes: John Harbaugh, Ravens (9.5), Nick Sirianni, Eagles (4.5), Ryans (4), Doug Pederson, Jaguars (3), Mike McDaniel, Dolphins (2.5), Kevin O’Connell, Vikings (1.5), Mike Tomlin, Steelers (1)
Detroit is three wins away from its second set of consecutive winning seasons in a quarter century—and the Lions seem to be capable of accomplishing so much more. That’s because Campbell’s team doesn’t look like anyone’s Cinderella. No, the Lions look like a group on the verge of becoming a very real powerhouse. And even more impressive, Campbell and GM Brad Holmes have built xactly what they said they would—a big, fast, physical and edgy team that’s clearly on the way up. Good to see Harbaugh getting mentioned here, too, in part for how he’s plucked NFL-experienced coordinators from the college ranks (Monken and DC Mike Macdonald) to reset his program over the past couple of years.
Executive of the Year
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Winner: Eagles GM Howie Roseman (13)
Consider this: The Eagles lost Miles Sanders, Isaac Seumalo, Javon Hargrave, T.J. Edwards, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and Marcus Epps (among others), and no one has seemed to even notice. Philly is still deep, and talented all over the place, and remains on the cutting edge in so many ways with how they’ve married traditional scouting and analytics. So, yes, Roseman is the obvious choice as he was last year. Among the other vote-getters, Holmes (for a lot of the reasons Campbell is our Coach of the Year), DeCosta (for finally settling the Jackson contract situation, and acquiring guys such as Roquan Smith, Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers) and Caserio (for drafting C.J. Stroud and hiring Ryans) all have very strong cases here, too, as the final count indicates.
