We are just one day away from the beginning of the 2023 NFL draft, an event bound to unite Chargers fans everywhere in their optimism about the future of the team.
(Okay, maybe not. But it will at least shift the talking points to something else.)
With 24 hours to go, here’s my crack at what the Chargers could do over the next three days. Keep in mind that while this is a predictive mock, it’s naturally influenced by a number of biases – familiarity with certain players, the big board on the mock draft simulator I use, things I would like to see the team do even if they bend tendencies a bit, etc. Now that we have that disclaimer out of the way, you’re not allowed to yell at me. Let’s get into it.
Round 1, No. 21: Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer
There’s a couple reasons I lean Mayer here over some of the other options. I don’t think someone like Bijan Robinson or Myles Murphy will be available without a trade up, and given the lack of depth across the board on LA’s roster, I don’t see a trade up as a realistic (or prudent, at least) move. Wide receiver has long been en vogue, and I think Jordan Addison will certainly be in play, but Gavino selected him in his mock and I wanted to do something a little different.
Mayer may not ever become a Travis Kelce-level threat at tight end, but he’d certainly bring long-term stability to a position that’s been in flux since Hunter Henry left for the Patriots. Gerald Everett has been noticeably absent from Tom Telesco’s quotes about the offense moving forward, while Donald Parham and Tre’ McKitty have yet to show they can handle the majority of the workload.
Mayer compares favorably to Texans TE Dalton Schultz, who was productive in Kellen Moore’s Cowboys offenses over the past few seasons. An above average blocker with plenty of receiving savvy, he’d elevate the offense even if he’s not the fastest straight line runner.
Round 2, No. 54: Kansas State EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah
Take one look at the Chargers’ cap sheet and I think it’s obvious that one of Joey Bosa or Khalil Mack is not on LA’s roster beyond the 2023 season without some laborious moving of money. The depth behind those two is suspect at best, with Chris Rumph yet to add the functional strength needed to play every down and nobody else separating themselves as a quality NFL rotational piece.
Anudike-Uzomah’s sole responsibility at Kansas State was to get after the passer, which led him astray in run defense on occasion. However, I think that had much more to do with his role and not his ability as a player. He’s also a well-rounded and productive pass rusher who would add tremendous value to the Chargers as a sub-package player when one of Bosa or Mack moves to the inside on passing downs. Thanks to his polish as a rusher, he’s also among the likeliest of the pass rushers outside the first round to be ready to take over a full-time role in 2024.
Round 3, No. 85: Princeton WR Andrei Iosivas
I’m calling my shot a bit here. Most consensus boards have Iosivas in the 4th or 5th round range, but I firmly believe that he’ll be selected on Day 2 – and why not by the Chargers? He adds the element LA desperately needs – speed – with a production profile that extends to all three levels of the field. That’s an important variable for LA when it comes to receivers.
Iosivas will turn 24 in October, but he’s rather underdeveloped as a football player after playing in the Ivy League and putting football on hold every spring to run track at Princeton. So yes, he’s a bit of a project, but that’s the type of pick LA likes to entertain in the third round. He’s also not the typical Chargers project, as his speed would provide instant contribution as a deep threat while he rounds out his game.
Round 4, No. 125: Texas A&M CB Jaylon Jones
Brandon Staley will never be done adding to his defensive back room, and Jones strikes me as the type of player he’d take a liking to. While he’s only a 4.57 athlete, Jones is a big, physical corner who would instantly be LA’s best run support option from the exterior. He shows good instincts when breaking on the ball and is phenomenal at limiting explosive plays despite his lack of speed.
That pedestrian athleticism is what will hold him back, however, and it’s been reported that some teams view Jones as a safety. In LA’s case, I think that only makes him a more interesting option given the lack of proven options outside of Derwin James and Alohi Gilman (sort of). Jones’ hips are tight, which often affects his ability to hang with more nuanced route runners, but shifting him to safety remedies many of those issues while keeping his physical run defense and ball skills on the field.
Round 5, No. 156: Sacramento State LB Marte Mapu
When you look Mapu up, most places are probably going to tell you he plays safety. He primarily played nickel at Sacramento State. I’m of the impression that he’ll be entering the league as a linebacker, however, and I think that his experience as a defensive back makes him a player Staley will have his eye on.
Look at the types of linebackers Staley has targeted during his time with the Rams and Chargers, and there’s a clear bias towards undersized coverage players with special teams ability. Mapu checks every single one of those boxes. While a torn pectoral prematurely ended his pre-draft process, Mapu has the toolbox to fill the role vacated by Troy Reeder’s departure this offseason. Long-term, he could develop into a starter at WILL linebacker.
Round 6, No. 200: Fresno State WR Jalen Moreno-Cropper
Even after bringing back Jalen Guyton, I think the Chargers will add two receivers via the draft over the next few days. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Josh Palmer, and Guyton are currently the only four I see as locks to make the roster, with Keelan Doss and John Hightower likely serving as camp bodies. I’d expect LA to roll with six receivers into Week 1 given Guyton’s recovery from ACL surgery.
The Chargers also need a returner after letting Deandre Carter leave for Las Vegas in free agency, and none of the players selected thus far fill that role very neatly. Moreno-Cropper does, however, with experience as a kick returner and ample pre-draft work at punt returner despite no game experience. LA also sent a presence to Fresno State’s pro day and Moreno-Cropper’s offensive coordinator was Kellen Moore’s brother Kirby.
Round 7, No. 239: Louisville OT Trevor Reid
The depth along LA’s offensive line is questionable, but Staley has publicly expressed confidence in the options already in house, which makes me think the Chargers could wait on their needs there until later in the weekend. Even so, Foster Sarell is the only backup tackle with any NFL experience, which seems untenable after both Rashawn Slater and Trey Pipkins missed time last season.
Late in the draft, LA tends to rely on a few key criteria. Elite athleticism? Check. Reid had one of the freakiest pro days ever for an offensive tackle and finished with an RAS of 9.61. All-star game attendee? Check. While the Chargers usually skew towards the Senior Bowl, they sent a huge cadre of scouts to the Shrine Bowl, where Reid spent the whole week and where LA’s scouts spent a ton of time on the offensive line. Reid has also met with the Chargers, which provides yet another link to be considered.
