We’re back at The King’s place for the second leg of the Florida swing.
The 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando is next up on the PGA Tour schedule, the third designated event in four weeks.
World No. 2 Scottie Scheffler is back to defend his title while No. 1 Jon Rahm is looking for his fourth win of 2023. Rory McIlroy, No. 3 in the Official World Golf Ranking and the same in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, has finished inside the top 13 at Bay Hill in seven of the last eight seasons including a win in 2018.
Overall, 23 of the game’s best 25 players will tee it up come Thursday.
Golf course
Bay Hill Club and Lodge | Par 72 | 7,466 yards
Course comparisons (according to Data Golf): 1. Annadale GC, 2. PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course), 3. TPC Scottsdale
Course history
Bay Hill Club & Lodge – Course History for the #APInv
Includes AVG finish position and SG per rd since 2015
According to @DataGolf, course history at Bay Hill is the 4th most predictive on Tour pic.twitter.com/xAHnI40RYl
— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) February 27, 2023
Betting preview
Last week (Honda Classic)
Forgettable week in Palm Beach Gardens. Two of our picks missed the cut while Shane Lowry had a respectful T-5 performance.
On to Bay Hill.
If you’re interested in my plays along with more coverage every week, find my Twitter here: @rileyhamel_
Odds
| Player | Odds | Player | Odds |
| Jon Rahm | (+700) | Viktor Hovland | (+3100) |
| Rory McIlroy | (+1000) | Jason Day | (+3300) |
| Scottie Scheffler | (+1000) | Cameron Young | (+3600) |
| Max Homa | (+2000) | Matt Fitzpatrick | (+3600) |
| Collin Morikawa | (+2100) | Sungjae Im | (+3700) |
| Will Zalatoris | (+2200) | Tyrrell Hatton | (+4000) |
| Xander Scahuffele | (+2400) | Jordan Spieth | (+4500) |
| Justin Thomas | (+2500) | Sam Burns | (+5000) |
| Patrick Cantlay | (+2500) | Tom Kim | (+5500) |
| Tony Finau | (+2600) | Keith Mitchell | (+5500) |
Rory McIlroy (+1000)
At the Farmers Insurance Open earlier this year I played the hits. Jason Day, Will Zalatoris, and a few other guys that often reside on my betting card, including Max Homa.
It paid off.
We’re doing the same this week at Bay Hill, starting with Rory McIlroy.
The Northern Irishman hasn’t had his best stuff in the states so far in ’23, tying for 32nd in Phoenix and 29th in LA. Despite the disappointing week at Riviera, McIlroy was ninth in SG: Tee to Green. What killed him was the flat stick, coming in third to last in SG: Putting.
He should be able to turn it around on the greens at Bay Hill as he returns to Bermuda surfaces. He’ll hit it good enough to get into contention so if the putter heats up, watch out for world No. 3.
Will Zalatoris (+2200)
This will be a big-time public play, which makes me nervous, but I like Willy Z coming off a great final round at Riviera (solo fourth).
Zalatoris didn’t have a notable week here in 2022, tying for 38th, but he tied for 10th back in ’21.
The API is a tournament Zalatoris will win at some point in his career and it might just be this week.
Jason Day (+3300)
Jason Day hasn’t finished outside the top 20 in 2023 (four starts), including three straight top 10s.
Day tied for 31st in his last trip to Bay Hill (2021) and is a past champion (2016). Overall, the Aussie has five top 25s in nine appearances at the API.
It’s time for Day to get back to his winning ways.
