It’s looking like back-to-back weeks of having a runaway winner after Brian Harman cruised to a six-stroke victory at the British Open a week ago. This time it’s Lee Hodges who has the edge, and he enters Sunday’s 3M Open finale with a five-stroke cushion. The American posted a five-under Saturday round and sits at -20 overall.
J.T. Poston matched Hodges’ third-round score and sits at -15, while defending champion Tony Finau is in standalone third place at -14. The best Saturday rounds belonged to Aaron Baddeley and Sam Ryder, who posted six–under scores. The duo enter the fourth round at -13 and -12, respectively. Ryder is a part of a four-way tie at fifth, which includes Billy Horschel, Keith Mitchell, and Kevin Steelman.
From a sports betting perspective, Hodges is currently -300 to finish off the competition and notch his first career PGA Tour victory. His highest finish up to this point was a T3 performance at the 2022 American Express. I certainly can’t justify laying the juice with this play, especially considering Hodges has never really been in this situation before. Perhaps the pressure will get to him, or perhaps he’ll dominate the round and earn the win. Either way, there isn’t much to value with an outright winner unless you think we’re in for a historic choke.
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2023 3M OPEN PICKS
Sam Ryder Top 5 & 10 Finisher (+300 & -110) Get the best Sam Ryder odds at DraftKings
Rather than try to force a play on an outright winner, I’ll take it to the finishing positions. I’m eyeing Sam Ryder to place inside both the top five and top 10. These are two separate bets that pay +300 and -110, respectively.
Ryder has a ton of experience playing TPC Twin Cities, as he has participated in all five 3M Opens. His finishes starting most recently, are MC, T25, and MC T34. So, while it hasn’t always panned out well for the American, I think this is a great opportunity for him to post his best finish at the event.
Ryder’s currently T5 at -12, and as long as he keeps pace with his peers, we should be fine. I’m confident that he will, considering he went six-under on Saturday, marking the best round of any golfer that teed off. Let’s ride with Ryder!
Emiliano Grillo Top 20 Finisher (-165) Go to DraftKings for the best Emiliano Grillo odds
Speaking of experience at TPC Twin Cities, Emiliano Grillo has it. The Argentinian not only played the 3M Open last year, but he excelled, finishing T2 at -14. Only Finau’s -17 was better.
I’m going to lay the -165 juice here and say Grillo places inside of the top 20. He’s currently T15 at -9 and shot an even round on Saturday. As for the lay of the land, 12 golfers tied for 15th, and seven are T27 at -8. While it’s quite a large log jam, we have plenty of wiggle room to work with.
Finally, Grillo is in fantastic form right now. He placed T6 at last weekend’s Open Championship and has an additional top-20 finish three tries ago at the Travelers (T15). Considering the lack of top talent at the 3m Open, I believe Grillo will at least hold his own on Sunday.
