FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Another busy hurricane season appears likely, with an above-average numbers of storms predicted this year, according to a forecast issued Thursday by Colorado State University.
The forecast called for nine hurricanes, where an average season has seven. Of these, the forecast says to expect four to be major hurricanes, which means storms with winds of at least 111 mph, or Category 3 or higher. An average season produces three major hurricanes.
If the forecast for this season holds, it would the seventh above-average season in a row, said Philip Klotzbach, research scientist for Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project, in a presentation Thursday to the National Tropical Weather Conference.
With a larger number of storms predicted, the forecast said, the chances of landfalls have increased.
“We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the forecast states.
The forecast cited the likelihood of above-average ocean temperatures, which provide the fuel for hurricanes. And it cited the likely absence of an El Niño, the occasional warming of the Pacific Ocean that produces windshear over the Atlantic that can tear up storms as they try to form.
The forecast calls for a total of 19 named storms, which means tropical storms, subtropical storms and hurricanes.
A forecast released last week by AccuWeather called for six to eight hurricanes, of which three to five would be major. Last season saw seven hurricanes, of which four were major hurricanes.
Early season predictions tend to be less accurate. Colorado State and other forecasters typically issue additional forecasts before the June 1 start of hurricane season and before the seasonal peak that starts in mid-August.
Despite the official June 1 start of the season, there’s a good chance of a storm forming in May, based on the previous few years.
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