The Houston Astros bounced back in a big way last season after limping into the postseason with a losing record (29-31). Houston lost in the World Series to the Braves while extending their streak of playoff appearances to five years. The Astros have one World Series title (2017).
Houston finished seventh in ERA (3.76), but their bullpen slipped to the league average (32 wins, 31 losses and 34 saves with a 4.06 ERA – 15th). They led the majors in runs (863) with 221 home runs (9th) and 53 stolen bases (27th).
The top signing in the offseason was SP Justin Verlander for one season ($25 million). In addition, the Astros added RP Hector Neris to their bullpen. SS Carlos Correa, SP Zack Greinke and 3B Marwin Gonzalez remain unsigned in the free-agent pool. Houston also lost RP Kendall Graveman (HOU), Yimi Garcia (TOR) and RP Brooks Raley (TB).
Their starting rotation should be improved with Verlander taking the mound every fifth day. Houston has four other competitive arms, each having the talent to push to a higher level. SP Cristian Javier enters the season as their sixth option. With growth in his command, he could easily steal a starting job if another arm struggles early or is injured.
The nucleus of the Astros offense has three players in their prime – 3B Alex Bregman, OF Kyle Tucker and DH Yordan Alvarez, plus multiple proven veterans. As a result, Houston should rank near the top of the league in runs, home runs and RBIs again in 2022.
Ryan Pressly held up in the ninth inning last year, but their setup arms probably can’t match the top bullpens in baseball.
Thomas Shea/USA Today Sports
Starting Lineup
2B Jose Altuve
After concerns about Altuve’s bat from the sign-stealing scandal in Houston, he matched his career-high in home runs (31) while posting a new top in runs (117). Unfortunately, his contact batting average (.327) lacks the pizzazz from 2014-18 (.374), suggesting a .300-plus batting average is no longer in his equation. Altuve had success with runners on base (RBI rate – 16) while taking the most walks (9.7% of his career). He also had a rebound in his strikeout rate (13.4).
His batting average (.278) was identical against lefties and righties and the same before and after the All-Star break. However, Altuve had more production from May through July (.281 with 68 runs, 24 home runs and 57 RBI over 313 at-bats). He also played better at home (.296/59/19/49/2 over 294 at-bats).
Altuve finished with the highest fly-ball rate (38.7 – 31.7 in his career) in his time with Houston. In addition, his HR/FB rate (15.8) was the second-best (23.3 in 2019 and 10.4 in his career). However, he ranked poorly in hard-hit rate (34.9 – 231st) and barrel rate (6.4 – 208th).
Fantasy Outlook
Based on his overall career resume, 2021 stats and the structure of the Astros’ offense, Altuve has a higher ADP (74) this draft season. He no longer has speed in his equation and his expected batting average looks closer to .270 than .320. I don’t foresee another 30-plus home runs. He finished 27th in SIscore (4.13) for hitters in 2021. Over the past two years, his run rate has been over 50%. Let’s set his bar at .275 with 90 runs, 20 home runs, 70 RBI and five stolen bases.
OF Michael Brantley
Over the past five seasons, Brantley hit between .299 and .311 while also posting a contact batting average in a tight range (.345 to .359). He continues to have a low strikeout rate (10.4), while his walk rate (6.5) came in at its lowest rate of his career.
Brantley saw more regression in his average hit rate (1.404), highlighted by his drop in home runs (8), launch angle (9.9 – 228th) and fading fly-ball rate (27.9).
He missed 41 games with two stints on the injured list (right knee and hamstring) and a couple of minor issues. Brantley had no answer for left-handed pitching (.219 with two home runs and 14 RBI over 169 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook
His ADP (249) is a buying opportunity if Brantley can push his home run total closer to 20 while seeing 550 at-bats. If he hits .300 with 80 runs, 20 home runs and 80 RBI, his SIscore will price him as a top 60 fantasy hitter in roto formats in 2022. Brantley would grade even higher with a rebound in speed (seems unlikely).
3B Alex Bregman
In two easy seasons, Bregman went from a fantasy stud to a free-falling player in drafts. Over the past two years, he missed 89 games, mostly tied to a hamstring issue. His 2021 season ended with a right wrist injury (no missed games or even a mention until after the year) that required surgery in November.
When on the field, Bregman continued to be tough to strike out (13.3%) with a favorable walk rate (11.0). In his best two years in 2018 and 2019, he had one of the best walk rates (15.4) in baseball.
His wrist issue may have been part of his regression in his average hit rate (1.564). Over his first 54 games, Bregman hit .297 with 36 runs, seven home runs and 31 RBI, putting a pace for a 100/20/100 season.
Earlier in his career, he had a higher fly-ball rate (40.8 in 2021 and 45.9 in 2019). However, his HR/FB rate (9.8) was well below his best two seasons (14.0 and 18.6). Bregman's barrel rate (6.4) last year was actually higher than in 2019 (4.8), which seems hard to believe with 41 home runs on his stat sheet. That season, his success in power came from his launch angle (19.6 – 15.9 in 2021).
Fantasy Outlook
Each fantasy baseball season, the goal is to find players who will outperform their draft slot. Bregman has an excellent approach, but he doesn’t jump off the page when looking at the stat cast data. In addition, hamstring issues eliminated his value in stolen bases over the previous two years, so any rebound would only be a bonus. His ADP (93) in late January in the NFBC screams buying opportunity. I expect him to hit over .290 with 100 runs, 25 home runs and 100 RBI with a healthy season. In 2018 and 2019, Bregman finished as a top 15 hitter by SIscore (6.73 and 6.66). The Astros may give him playing time at shortstop.
OF Yordan Alvarez
Even with an excellent season, Alvarez still hasn’t reached his peak. His average hit rate (1.913) and contact batting average (.380) set high bars, but approach (strikeout rate – 24.3 and walk rate – 8.4) fell short of his brief minor-league resume (12.4 and 20.9).
Alvarez carried the Astros in their series against Boston (12-for-23 with seven runs, one home run and six RBI) in the postseason, but the Braves shut him down in the World Series (2-for-20 with no home runs or RBI).
He handled himself well vs. left-handed pitching (.283 with 13 home runs and 39 RBI over 205 at-bats). His swing path came in balance while posting an elite HR/FB rate (21.4). In addition, Alvarez had the 10th-highest hard-hit rate (54.2) with strength in his barrel rate (15.9 – 23rd).
Over four seasons in the minors, he hit .311 with 56 home runs, 218 RBI and 18 stolen bases over 927 at-bats.
Fantasy Outlook
Coming into last season, I had Alvarez projected higher than most, but his DH-only qualification depressed his draft value. He finished 34th in SIscore (3.35) for hitters, but his ADP (32) in the NFBC prices him as the 22nd batter off the board in 2022. His next step should be .300 with 100 runs, 40 home runs and 120 RBI.
OF Kyle Tucker
The most impressive thing about Tucker’s game in 2021 was his ability to improve his approach. He lowered his strikeout rate to 15.9 (21.2 over his first 372 plate appearances in the majors and 18.4 in the minors) while also taking more walks (9.4%).
Tucker missed 18 games in June and August with two stints on the COVID-19 list.
His average hit rate (1.893) has been in a power-producing area over the past three seasons. In addition, Tucker had no issues with left-handed pitching (.287 with 13 home runs and 44 RBI over 185 at-bats) while striking out only 25 times (12.4%). He delivered his best production in May (.296/23/6/20/3 over 98 at-bats) and September (.346/20/8/19/2 over 104 at-bats).
Tucker has a fly-ball swing path (44.4%), but his HR/FB rate (16.1) came in below the elite power hitters in the game. His launch angle (17.6 – 58th) and hard-hit rate (47.5 – 52nd) graded well.
Over five seasons in the minors, he hit .283 with 334 runs, 95 RBI, 382 RBI and 121 stolen bases over 1,998 at-bats.
Fantasy Outlook
If Tucker can steal more bags, he has the potential to be a fantasy beast. His approach and power set the foundation while having the tools to be a five-category star. He ranked 22nd in SIscore (4.83) for hitters while missing over 15% of the season. Fantasy managers believe in his speed, leading to Tucker having a first-round ADP (11.9) in the early draft season in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. He is trending toward a .280/100/30/100/20 player while owning a higher ceiling. I’d love for him to hit second or third in the Astros’ batting order.
1B Yulieski Gurriel
Gurriel had been on many winning fantasy teams twice over the past three seasons. Unfortunately, he looks like a dull power hitter with neutral runs and a winning batting average. In 2019, an impressive power run led to his career year, pushing him to 38th in SIscore (3.33).
After struggling in batting average in 2020, Gurriel had an ADP after 275 in the NFBC. He regained his lost contact batting average (.366), leading to an American League batting title (.319). However, despite his success, his bat finished with weakness in his average hit rate (1.450).
Gurriel continues to be challenging to strike out (11.2%) while adding a few more walks (9.8% – career-high) to his bio.
After the All-Star break, he only helped in batting average (.327) and runs (39) over 223 at-bats (five home runs and 27 RBI). His HR/FB rate (8.2) has been under 8.5 in three of the past four seasons. Gurriel finished with a meager barrel rate (3.4 – 281st).
Fantasy Outlook
This draft season Gurriel comes off the board at pick 197 as the 120th batter. His 2021 SIscore (1.59) ranked him 52nd, but most of his value came from his batting average (2.75). At age 37, his softball swing to centerfield doesn’t look repeatable. In the right lineup, but I’m a fantasy snob, meaning I’m looking for more upside while not buying him off a career year in one category.
OF Chas McCormick
Making contact in the majors was a significant issue for McCormick in his rookie season. He whiffed 32.5% of the time, but his bat was more than worthy of staying in the starting lineup based on his production. McCormick posted a career-best in his average hit rate (1.740) and contact batting average (.406). At the same time, he scored 48% of the time when on base while being clutch with runners on base (RBI rate – 18).
Over four seasons in the minors, he hit .278 with 155 runs, 20 home runs, 144 RBI and 41 stolen bases over 976 at-bats. He had a much better approach (walk rate – 11.1 and strikeout rate – 13.2).
Fantasy Outlook
McCormick had the look of a player to avoid from a distance based on his contact issues. However, his minor league profile shows improvement with a much better foundation to his approach. He comes off the boards with pick 440 in the high-stakes market. Worth a flier as a 15/15 season is within his realm with 500 at-bats.
C Martin Maldonado
Maldonado’s batting average (.172 in 2021 and .212 in his career) has been a problem in his whole career. Over his last three seasons, he hit .195 with 105 runs, 30 home runs and 87 RBI.
His walk rate (11.2) improved with Houston when considering his value in this area (6.6) over his first eight years in the majors.
Houston brought in Jason Castro in 2021 to compete for at-bats against right-handed pitching. Maldonado hit only .154 vs. righties last year with seven home runs and 18 RBI.
Fantasy Outlook
Maldonado is a defensive catcher who offers occasional power. Based on his offense, he may only provide value two to three days in a month. An easy player to pass on while spending much of his last days in the majors on the waiver wire.
3B Aledmys Diaz
Diaz was serviceable in 2016 and 2018 when he had his best opportunity for starting at-bats. Over three seasons with Houston, Diaz has hit .262 with 72 runs, 20 home runs, 91 RBI and two steals over 562 at-bats. His success projects well if the Astros decide to start him by shifting Alex Bregman to shortstop.
In 2020, his season started with about five weeks on the injured list with a groin injury that came in his first game played. Diaz then battled a quad issue that cost him another two weeks in September. Last year, a broken left hand led to a couple of missed months.
His strikeout rate (19.4) is better than the league average while showing more strength earlier in his career (13.2). Diaz has a shallow walk rate (5.0).
Fantasy Outlook
Diaz doesn’t have a fantasy pulse in late January, but that could change by spring training if Houston doesn't add another shortstop option. His ADP (615) is well below his potential if given a starting job.
OF Jose Siri
The Reds signed Siri at age 17 out of the Dominican Republic. Over eight seasons in the minors, he hit .271 with 438 runs, 84 home runs, 342 RBI and 179 stolen bases over 2,595 at-bats. Siri had a breakthrough season in 2017 at A Ball, leading to a .293 batting average over 598 at-bats with 92 runs, 24 home runs, 76 RBI and 46 stolen bases.
Unfortunately, his first chance at significant at-bats AAA didn’t come until 2021 (.318/70/16/72/24 over 362 at-bats). His walk rate (6.5) fell below the league average while owning a high strikeout rate (30.7).
In September, the Astros gave him 46 at-bats, where Siri posted strength in his stats (.304/10/4/9/3). Making contact was an issue (strikeout rate – 36.2) while taking one walk.
His contact batting average between AAA (.479) and the majors (.483) was impressive but above his previous resume in the minors.
Fantasy Outlook
Siri has an intriguing power/speed skill set, but he can’t stay on the Astros’ roster without making better contact. As a result, the NFBC crowd priced him as a waiver wire player based on his late January ADP (559). Nevertheless, Siri is a player to keep an eye on as he may offer replacement value stats if given a starting job.
Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports
Starting Pitching
SP Justin Verlander
After making one start in 2020 (two runs over six innings with seven strikeouts), Verlander blew out his right elbow, leading to TJ surgery in October. With 18 months to recover, he should be ready for the start of this season.
Verlander was the best pitcher in baseball in 2019 based on SIscore (16.07). He led the American League in wins (21), starts (34), innings pitched (223) and WHIP (0.803) while finishing with 300 strikeouts for the first time in his career. In addition, Verlander had strength in his walk rate (1.7) and strikeout rate (12.1). His stuff played well against both righties (.182 BAA) and lefties (.163 BAA). Even with an excellent season, Verlander looked shaky in the postseason (1-4 with a 4.33 ERA and eight home runs allowed over 35.1 innings).
Over four seasons with Houston, Verlander went 43-15 with a 2.45 ERA and 640 strikeouts over 477 innings. He struggled with home runs (1.2, 1.2, 1.2 and 1.5 per nine) from 2016-19 due to pitching more up in the strike zone. His fly-ball rate was a career-high in 2018 (51.4 – 45.2 in 2019 and 41.8 in his career).
His average fastball dipped to 94.6 in 2019 while relying on three elite pitches (slider – .116 BAA, curveball – .188 BAA and changeup – .108 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Verlander hasn’t stepped on a major league mound in almost two seasons. He has 226 career wins and 3,013 strikeouts, putting him on a path to the Hall of Fame. His ADP (113) is well below his resume in the early draft season in the NFBC, but any success on the mound in spring training will push him quickly up draft boards in March. His workhorse resume creates a buying opportunity. At a minimum, 3.50 ERA with 200 strikeouts.
SP Lance McCullers
After missing 2019 with TJ surgery, McCullers had similar stats in 2020 as he did (10-6 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.169 WHIP). His walk rate (3.3) improved slightly, while his strikeout rate (9.2) fell short of his career average (10.0).
Last year he led the American League in walks (76), but McCullers was more challenging to hit (.205 BAA). His strikeout rate (10.3) improved slightly. However, he developed a right forearm issue in the postseason. McCullers allowed three runs or fewer in 23 of his 28 starts.
His average fastball (93.9) was below 2018 (95.0 MPH). All three of his secondary pitches (changeup – .184 BAA, curveball – .164 BAA and slider – .150 BAA) reached a higher level.
Fantasy Outlook
The regression in command and a forearm issue smells of another underlying elbow issue. McCullers has the arsenal to get batters out and win games, but he has yet to pitch 180 innings. His ADP (161) is lower than 2020 (125) despite better overall stats. I’m torn, for now, until I evaluate the pitching inventory in his class.
SP Framber Valdez
Valdez went 26-21 with a 3.79 ERA and 439 strikeouts over 367.2 innings over five seasons in the minors. His walk rate (3.5) has always been high in his career. However, the light bulb in his stuff started to click in 2019 at AAA (5-2 with a 3.25 ERA and 69 strikeouts over 44.1 innings).
Over his first two seasons in Houston, he walked 5.7 batters per nine innings, leading to a messy 4.60 ERA and 1.523 WHIP.
In 2020, Valdez pitched well over his first five games (1.72 ERA and 29 strikeouts over 31.1 innings). Batters roughed him up over his next four starts (20 runs and 35 baserunners over 26 innings), but he rebounded over his final two contests (two runs over 13.1 innings with 19 strikeouts). Valdez went 3-1 with a 1.88 ERA and 26 strikeouts over 24 innings in the postseason. His improved success came from the best command (2.0 walks per nine) of his career.
Last March, he suffered a broken finger on his left hand, leading to two months on the injured list. Valdez pitched at a high level over his first seven starts (5-1 with a 2.18 ERA, .201 BAA and 41 strikeouts over 45.1 innings). However, his walk rate (4.4) regressed over his final 89.1 innings, leading to a fade in his ERA (3.63).
Valdez lost some velocity on his fastball (92.3) while relying on an electric curveball (.131 BAA). Unfortunately, his changeup (.284 BAA) and sinker (.297 BAA) still need work.
Fantasy Outlook
His first-pitch strike rate (54) signals his command will continue to be up and down. I don’t trust his WHIP, making Valdez a player to fade as a foundation ace for someone who tries to cheat starting pitching. Improving for sure, but a step back in confidence will lead to a crushing blow to a fantasy pitching staff.
SP Luis Garcia
Garcia dominated over his first three seasons in the minors. He went 18-7 with a 2.50 ERA and 284 strikeouts over 205 innings. His strikeout rate (12.5) was elite, but Garcia walked 4.2 batters per nine.
Last year he made the jump from High A to the majors with relative ease. Garcia threw more strikes (walk rate – 2.9) while maintaining a high strikeout rate (9.7). Batters hit .232 against him, but lefties banged him around (.282 BAA with 13 home runs over 287 at-bats). His struggles also came on the road (4.24 ERA).
His average fastball (93.5) was just above the league average. Garcia has success with all four secondary pitches (cutter – .171 BAA, slider – .119 BAA, changeup – .222 BAA and curveball – .175 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Garcia carries a lot of weight, which is something that could derail his progress. His direction and success point to 180 innings in 2022, as long as his command doesn’t regress. In my thoughts, but his ADP (153) may be a tad high for my plan. Garcia has an upside of 200 strikeouts with help in ERA and WHIP.
SP Jose Urquidy
Urquidy missed the start of 2020 with an undetermined issue. His first start didn’t come until September 5, when he allowed two runs and seven baserunners over 3.2 innings. Urquidy pitched a minimum of six innings over his final four games, leading to a 2.42 ERA, 0.885 WHIP, .194 BAA and 15 strikeouts over 26 innings. Over four games in the postseason, he allowed seven runs, 18 baserunners and four home runs over 15.2 innings.
Last year Urquidy pitched well over three months (3.38 ERA and 66 strikeouts over 77.1 innings) before missing two months with a right shoulder issue. When he returned in September, his arm had a step back in value (4.25 ERA and five home runs over 29.2 innings).
Urquidy averaged 92.7 MPH with his fastball. Batters struggled with his changeup (.158 BAA) and slider (.228 BAA). Last season, he pitched up in the strike zone, leading to a high fly-ball rate (45.6).
Over five seasons in the minors, Urquidy went 18-13 with a 3.27 ERA and 371 strikeouts over 339 innings. However, he did lose some development time in 2017 due to a right elbow issue that required TJ surgery.
Fantasy Outlook
With 34 games under his major-league resume, Urquidy has an 11-5 record with a 3.55 ERA and 147 strikeouts over 177.2 innings. His ADP (198) sits in an attractive area. However, to pay off, he needs a bump in his strikeout rate (7.4) and to learn to keep the ball in the ballpark. Nice steady arm with upside, but his right shoulder can’t have any negative news in spring training.
SP Cristian Javier
Javier came into 2020 with an excellent minor-league resume (26-11 with a 2.22 ERA and 512 strikeouts over 377 innings) while gaining experience with Houston. Over 12 games, he went 5-2 with a 3.48 ERA and 54 strikeouts over 54.1 innings. Batters struggled to hit him (.188 BAA), but he did serve up 11 home runs (1.8 per nine).
His highlight season came in 2019 between High A, AA and AAA (8-3 with a 1.74 ERA and 170 strikeouts over 113.2 innings. He did issue 59 walks (4.7 per nine), but batters only hit .130 against him while pitching better as a starter (1.70 ERA).
Javier threw the ball well over nine starts (3.14 ERA, .173 BAA and 58 strikeouts over 48.2 innings) to start the year before shifting to the bullpen. In September, his arm faded (12 runs, 22 baserunners and four home runs over 14.1 innings).
His average fastball (93.8) was slightly above the league average while being tough to hit (.224 BAA). His slider (.095 BAA) was electric while offering high strikeout ability. Javier also mixed in a winning curveball (.200 BAA) and changeup (.191 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
The one glaring black mark in his experience in the majors is his first-pitch strike rate (48), leading to 4.7 walks per nine. Javier has elite stuff with ace upside if he can figure out how to throw more strikes. His ADP (315) had a circle around it despite not having a clear path to a starting job in late January.
SP Jake Odorizzi
Over the past two seasons, Odorizzi struggled over 28 games, leading to a 4.49 ERA and 103 innings over 118.1 innings. He allowed 20 home runs, which was a significant part of his downfall.
His season (10.13 ERA over eight innings) started with a right forearm issue, which may hint at a future elbow injury. After missing five weeks, Odorizzi pitched well over eight starts (2.29 ERA, .183 BAA, 33 strikeouts over 39.1 innings). However, he served up 11 home runs over his next 37.1 innings, leading to a 5.54 ERA and 1.58 WHIP.
Odorizzi had success with his four-seam fastball (.191 BAA) that had similar velocity (92.4). The rest of his pitches, except for his curveball (.174 BAA), failed to make an impact.
Fantasy Outlook
He has a winning record (68-63) in his career with a respectable ERA (3.95). I don’t trust the health of his arm even with a flier ADP (459).
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Bullpen
RP Ryan Pressly
In 2018 and 2019, Pressly developed into one of the top eighth-inning arms in baseball. He had a 2.44 ERA and 173 strikeouts over 125.1 innings.
His arm didn’t look right over his first nine games (5.87 ERA) in 2020, leading to two blown saves in five chances. Pressly did come into the season with right elbow soreness. However, he regained his form over his final 14 appearances (2.03 ERA, .204 BAA and 20 strikeouts over 13.1 innings) while converting nine of his 11 save tries.
Last year he pitched well over 64 appearances, leading to five wins, 26 saves, 2.25 ERA and 81 strikeouts over 64 innings. Pressly lowered his walk rate (1.8), with strength in his strikeout rate (11.4).
His average fastball (95.4) remains elite while featuring a plus slider (.160 BAA) and curveball (.203 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Pressly moved to sixth in the closer draft rankings in the NFBC in early January. His ADP (74) fits the fantasy manager who want to lock up a top closer in the draft. Houston had a top offense with depth in their starting rotation. Pressly has a chance at 40-plus saves with some help in ERA and WHIP.
RP Hector Neris
Neris pitched his way out of the ninth inning for the third time in five seasons. After converting nine of his first 11 saves (1.90 ERA over 23.2 innings with 29 strikeouts), he allowed 13 runs, 21 baserunners and three home runs over 7.2 innings, leading to four blown saves in six opportunities. Neris stabilized over his final 33 games (2.25 ERA, .165 BAA and 50 strikeouts over 36 innings) but failed to record another save.
His walk rate (3.9) continued to be an issue while maintaining a high strikeout rate (11.9). In addition, he allowed 12 home runs over 74.1 innings.
Over the last five seasons, Neris went 14-23 with a 3.62 ERA, 376 strikeouts and 82 saves over 286 innings.
His average fastball (94.3) drifted back slightly from his peak seasons. He gains his edge with a plus split-finger fastball (.133 BAA) and four-seam fastball (.231 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Neris has a streaky arm that has signs of greatness. Unfortunately, home runs can be a problem and he doesn’t throw enough strikes to overcome his bad innings. His ADP (498) puts him in a range to handcuff Ryan Pressly.
