The number of patients admitted to hospital with Covid has shot up by 27% in a week, worrying figures show - with more than a million people in England infected earlier this month.
According to Department of Health and Social Care data, parts of the South West have the case rates, with Somerset, Gloucestershire, Torbay, Plymouth and Bristol among the worst affected.
Maps show that since mid-November, cases have started to rise once more in the build-up to Christmas.
Mathematician Prof Christine Pagel told a meeting of Independent SAGE on Friday: "It's fair to say we're now definitely in a new wave."
Members of the scientific think-tank heard that although the situation is far less bleak than it was ahead of Christmas 2020 and 2021, the crisis is not over.
They warned that vaccination drives appear to have stalled, with hundreds of thousands eligible for jabs which they have not taken.
Latest data shows there were 27,830 confirmed Covid cases in England in the week to Thursday last week - a 17.2% rise compared to the previous week.
But the real figure is likely to be far higher, with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimating around one in 50 people had Covid in England in the week ending December 5.
Hospital admissions have shown a sharp rise, latest figures show - although despite the number of people admitted with flu has overtaken coronavirus for the first time in two years.
In the seven days to December 12, there were 5,250 patients admitted to hospital with Covid - up 27.6% compared to a week earlier.
On Wednesday there were 150 Covid patients in ventilation beds, while 402 deaths were recorded within 28 days of a positive test.
Most admissions are for people over the age of 65, Prof Pagel said.
The places with the highest infection rates in the UK, according to latest Department of Health data, are:
- North Somerset - 93.2
- South Gloucestershire - 89.3
- Torbay - 87.4
- Plymouth - 86.4
- Bristol - 85.2
- Somerset - 81
- Wiltshire - 74.6
- Devon - 73.6
- Hampshire - 67
- West Sussex - 66.7
- Blackpool - 65.8
- Midlothian - 63.3
- Cumbria - 61.8
- Bedford - 61.3
- Stockport - 61.2
- Stoke-on-Trent - 61.2
- West Dunbartonshire - 61.1
- Gloucestershire - 60.6
- Bracknell Forest - 60.4
- Herefordshire - 60.4
Prof Stephen Reicher told Independent SAGE members: "There's little doubt that things are better than they were this time of year in 2020 and 2021. If we remember back to 2020 the Alpha variant was causing huge damage and we didn't yet have the protection of the vaccine.
"In 2021 we saw the Omicron variant... compared to those two years things are a lot better."
He continued: "Perhaps for the first time in three years people are looking forward to seeing family and friends over the festive season.
"But that's only one side of the story because clearly - and it's point we try to stress especially given the level of denialism that's going on - things aren't over."
He said that immunity is waning, with less than two thirds of those eligible taking up boosters as vaccinations grind to a halt.
"The situation with immunity is getting worse," he said.
Prof Reicher called on people to continue testing for the virus, wear masks in busy places and stay home when ill, as well as getting jabbed.
Professor Danny Altmann, of Imperial College London, told the meeting: "The people going into hospital and the people dying are the people who haven't had their boosters, it's very rare to have that severe of an outcome in boosted people."
NHS vaccination teams have visited every care home in England to offer Covid boosters and flu jabs ahead of the festive period, health chiefs announced.
NHS national medical director Professor Sir Stephen Powis said: “While we have seen a resurgence in flu and other winter illnesses this year, there are still around 6,000 patients in hospital with covid and that is why it has been so important that we protect those most vulnerable to the disease with a booster, including people who live in care homes.
“I am delighted that our dedicated NHS staff have been able to go into every care home in England in the last 12 weeks to make sure residents are protected ahead of Christmas, meaning they can spend much needed time with family and friends without the anxiety of spreading covid and its potential consequences.
“It is fantastic that so many residents are already up to date with their jabs and I’d encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated as soon as possible as we head into colder months where we notoriously see increased illness and hospitalisation especially among the elderly”.
