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The Conversation
The Conversation
Stephen Woodcock, Associate Professor of Mathematical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney

20 people, 2.4 quintillion possibilities: the baffling statistics of Secret Santa

Harbucks / Shutterstock

Christmas, we’re told, is the most wonderful time of the year. For many of us, however, it is preceded by one of the least wonderful times: the awkward social spectacle of the office Secret Santa or Kris Kringle, where employees agree to purchase a gift for a randomly allocated colleague.

As you watch your co-workers unwrap their often wildly inappropriate gifts, each chosen by a office mate they barely know, cast your mind to the sheer statistical improbability of what you’re seeing. The odds of such a combination of these cheaply re-gifted photograph frames, inexplicably scented candles or unwanted Lynx Africa gift sets being passed around your office is, in its own way, truly a Christmas miracle.

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