MIAMI — As if to say, “Look at me, hurricane season isn’t over until Nov. 30,” two new disturbances formed in the tropics Thursday to join Tropical Depression Lisa.
According to Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach, Wednesday’s activity from Martin and Lisa was the first time since 1932 in which the Atlantic had two hurricanes with maximum sustained winds of 85 or more mph in November simultaneously.
Here’s what we know:
Northwestern Atlantic
A weak, nontropical area of low pressure several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda (the yellow X on the map) was shedding disorganized showers and thunderstorms over open waters, according to the National Hurricane Center’s advisory at 8 p.m. Eastern time Thursday.
Any subtropical or tropical development of the disturbance should be slow over the next couple of days as it moves little through Friday and then turns west over the weekend.
By the end of the weekend, the disturbance is expected to merge with a larger system developing to its southwest (the yellow blob on the map), and that should stymie further development. Formation chances at two and five days are low at 10%.
Southwestern Atlantic
The larger system that could merge with the northwestern Atlantic nontropical area is a large nontropical low pressure system that hurricane center forecasters expect to develop this weekend over the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic.
The system is expected to start out very broad and disorganized, but environmental conditions could support gradual subtropical or tropical development beginning early next week while it moves northwest or west.
Formation chance over the weekend is at zero but over five days there could be a 30% chance for development.
According to WPLG meteorologist Michael Lowry, this “big sloppy weather system” could “pinwheel toward Florida’s peninsula” next week.
“The system may try to acquire tropical characteristics gradually but given the large, gyre-like circulation and nearby upper-level low, this process would take some time. Regardless, the contrast of high pressure to the north and such a large area of low pressure to the south will mean breezy weather, high surf, and the potential for rain squalls across South Florida beginning early next week,” Lowry wrote on his Eye on the Tropics blog.
Tropical Depression Lisa
The former hurricane was dropping rain over southeastern Mexico, about 45 miles southeast of Ciudad Del Carmen. Sustained winds were 30 mph, a bit of a drop from the 11 a.m. Thursday advisory, with the storm moving west at 12 mph, according to the 5 p.m. advisory.
Lisa, having slowed down, would move over the Bay of Campeche and continue to weaken. Re-intensification when its center reaches the Bay of Campeche is not expected.
Lisa’s rainfall threat is expected to diminish as the night goes on. It is currently producing 1 to 3 inches of rain across portions of southeastern Mexico.
