ORLANDO, Fla. — A new tropical wave emerged Thursday morning with 60% odds of becoming the next tropical depression or storm by early next week. Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center is watching a second tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic.
First, a tropical wave over the Guinea Highlands in Africa is producing thunderstorms Thursday morning, the NHC said in its 8 a.m. update. Hurricane specialists are expecting the wave to push off the continent later today.
Atlantic conditions are somewhat ripe for development, the NHC said. That being the case, the wave has a 60% of becoming the next tropical depression over the eastern Atlantic next week and a 20% chance of doing so over the weekend.
Next, another tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic is stirring up some trouble and producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions east of the Lesser Antilles are expected to be marginally agreeable for development by early next week. Models give the wave a 20% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next five days.
If either system develops, the first one to do so will be the sixth named storm of the season and don the moniker of Fred. If they both develop, the slower will be named Grace.
The areas of interest are about two weeks shy of the “peak of hurricane season,” or the period where meteorologists observe the most tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Conditions of warm water and low vertical wind shear in the upper atmosphere become ideal for storm production between mid-August and mid-October.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expect the remainder of the 2021 season to be a bumpy one, according to its midseason forecast. A typical season has 13 named storms and seven named hurricanes. On Wednesday, the NOAA updated its forecast predicting 15-21 named storms with sustained winds of 39 mph or greater, seven to 10 hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes, or storms of Category 3 winds and higher.
The NOAA predicted 13-20 named storms in May, with six to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to five becoming major hurricanes.
Last year, the NOAA made a similar forecast at midseason. By Nov. 30, the end of hurricane season, meteorologists cataloged 30 named storms — the most recorded in a single year.
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