So far this year, 12 state legislative incumbents — one Democrat and 11 Republicans — have lost to primary challengers.
Across the four states that have held primaries, 2.6% of incumbents running for re-election have lost, which is less than at this point in 2022 (3.6%).
These totals include data from elections in both legislative chambers in Arkansas, California, North Carolina, and Texas, all held on March 5, 2024.
- In Arkansas and California, no incumbents lost.
- In North Carolina, one Democrat and two Republicans lost.
- In Texas, nine Republican incumbents lost and eight advanced to primary runoffs.
These figures are as of March 9, and include 23 uncalled primaries featuring incumbents: 20 Democratic and three Republican.
Republican incumbents have lost at a higher rate than Democrats. Of the 279 Republican incumbents who filed for re-election, 11 (3.9%) have lost to primary challengers. For Democrats, one of the 188 who filed for re-election (0.5%) have lost.
Of the four states that have held primaries so far, one has a Democratic trifecta, two have Republican trifectas, and one has a divided government.
