Most drafts are impossible to predict at worst, chaotic at best. Aside from a few obvious picks like Bryce Young to the Carolina Panthers, the 2023 NFL Draft was no different.
And I have to say: The suspense was terrible, but I really hoped it would last.
With the latest talented class of players starting to enter the league, it’s time to take stock of what happened Thursday night.
For example, a few rebuilding teams in Carolina, Houston and Indianapolis put all their eggs in young quarterback baskets. Meanwhile, a contender essentially recreated the front seven of one of the best teams in college football history. Oh, and the Kansas City Chiefs couldn’t help but bask in their own glory at a draft taking place in their home city.
Mind you, this was a day when Lamar Jackson also signed one of the richest deals in the history of pro football.
There was a lot to digest from the opening salvos of the draft in Kansas City, with a few franchises taking significant steps back and some regressing to familiar low standards. Here’s a breakdown of For The Win’s winners and losers from Day 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Also check out:
- Grades for every first-round pick
- The 10 best players available on Day 2
- First-round trade tracker grades
Winners
Lamar Jackson has one of the best days of his career
To start the first day of the draft, Lamar Jackson finally got the exorbitant contract he deserved from the Baltimore Ravens. Near the end of the first draft round, after just about three years of trying to carry the Ravens on his back, Jackson finally got more help in the form of the electric Zay Flowers.
While it would’ve been fair to hold skepticism about the Ravens’ belief in Jackson before Thursday, they left no doubt: He is their future and the man they want to win another Super Bowl with.
Because they finally took care of him.
Imagine sitting on your couch, maybe shooting out a few texts, having some phone calls here and there, then becoming $185 million richer before your team acquires a dynamite weapon. That was probably Jackson’s day, and he totally earned it.
A huge day for young Black quarterbacks
Bryce Young (No. 1 overall), C.J. Stroud (No. 2), and Anthony Richardson (No. 4) made wonderful history. As noted by The Athletic‘s Mike Jones, three Black quarterbacks were drafted among the top 10 for the first time in NFL history.
First time in NFL history that three Black quarterbacks have gone in the top 10. 👏🏽 👏🏽 👏🏽
As Doug Williams told me this week, “Mindsets and mentalities have changed. … It’s heartwarming, to me.” https://t.co/KLvRuBDUGp
— Mike Jones (@ByMikeJones) April 28, 2023
This is a fantastic sign of progress in the league, as Black quarterbacks are increasingly gaining a greater foothold as faces of the sport. Things are still far from perfect regarding racial stigmas, but seeing NFL teams make early investments in players who literally hold the keys to their success like this is a sign some aspects are heading in the right direction.
The Philadelphia Eagles use Georgia to rebuild their front seven
After a challenging free agency period, the salary cap-strapped Eagles couldn’t retain every member of their NFC-title-winning core. But the draft was on the horizon, a place where first-class general manager Howie Roseman typically thrives.
He did not disappoint.
Not only did Philadelphia select the arguable top prospect in the entire draft in Jalen Carter, it double-dipped on Georgia Bulldogs and took Carter’s college teammate, Nolan Smith. Philadelphia drafted a mammoth defensive tackle and a productive edge player who, at the NFL Combine, ran a 40-yard dash faster than Saquon Barkley in his 2018 draft year.
Carter and Smith will reunite with former Georgia standouts Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean in Philadelphia, effectively and partly recreating one of the best defenses in college football history.
The #Eagles have now drafted FOUR Georgia players in the last two drafts, three of which were drafted in the 1st round 🦴 pic.twitter.com/HFkm1BnfJ2
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) April 28, 2023
Why doesn’t every NFL team just draft the top players from the top team in the country? It’s so simple!
The Houston Texans' successful smokescreen leads to a foundational draft haul
The Texans did it. They pulled a fast one on all of us.
We really thought the franchise that was 53 games under .500 in its all-time history would really not draft a quarterback at the start of the first round. We really thought that Nick Caserio was in over his head, and DeMeco Ryans might have been too obsessed with pass rushers.
As it turns out, the Texans knew what they were doing all along.
After successfully throwing everyone off the scent, the Texans selected the polished Stroud to lead them through their rebuild. Then, they showed some “good greed” and traded back up to draft Will Anderson Jr. as he leads their defense through their rebuild.
Nick Caserio on excitement level in the war room compared to fans going bonkers at team event over drafting CJ Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. pic.twitter.com/bFSbqDYQLn
— John McClain (@McClain_on_NFL) April 28, 2023
In two fell swoops, Houston acquired its hopeful dual faces of the franchise. And we never saw it coming.
It turns out Pete Carroll and John Schneider know what they're doing in Seattle
Roughly a year ago, the Seahawks were supposed to be a laughingstock. They traded away their best player in franchise history, Russell Wilson, and looked to be at the start of a painful teardown.
By the end of this draft, they should be poised as an NFC powerhouse.
To start the evening, Seattle took Devon Witherspoon, a legit lockdown cornerback, to pair with sophomore standout Tariq Woolen. If I know the greater Pacific Northwest, “Legion of Boom” definitely was thrown around a few households on Thursday night.
Then, with the receiving class slipping somewhat, Seattle drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba — the prolific slot weapon who should slide perfectly right in between D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. If you thought Geno Smith had an excellent Comeback Player of the Year campaign, just wait for the show he’ll put on in 2023.
Shame on anyone who ever doubted Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider. (Hey, don’t look at me! OK, sure.)
Justin Fields and Kyler Murray have new best friends up front
Justin Fields and Kyler Murray are two of the NFL’s more electric players. They’re also under duress more than any great signal caller should be, asked to make magic out of nothing far too often.
Between offensive tackles Darnell Wright (for Chicago) and Paris Johnson Jr. (for Arizona), this shouldn’t be much of a problem anymore. Fields and Murray — again, two supremely gifted quarterbacking talents — will ideally be more comfortable moving forward.
More comfort for them means more discomfort and stress on opposing defenders. These two picks were prime examples of how you invest in the most important players of a franchise.
Bill Belichick pulls off a trade-down masterclass for a star cornerback
Three years removed from the Tom Brady era, the New England Patriots have been more enigmatic than we expected in recent seasons. One constant has been the savviness of Bill Belichick, who pulled off an impressive sleight of hand during the first round.
After trading down four picks with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Belichick’s Patriots found cornerback stud Christian Gonzalez waiting in their lap. At this point, there was no way a complete boundary player with elite ballhawk skills would ever leave Belichick’s grasp. Gonzalez was made to be a Patriot, and Belichick knew it.
Christian Gonzalez locking down receivers man to man
Love a guy with elite traits who trusts his athleticism, and you see that in Gonzalez's patience from press + his calmness downfield pic.twitter.com/o6nFPzf2aw
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) April 28, 2023
To get Gonzalez at No. 17 overall after a trade-down is the early steal of the draft. It’s that all-too-familiar “Patriot Way” that weighed everyone outside of the New England area down for two decades, peeking its head out again.
Justin Jefferson gets a viable running mate in Minnesota
With all due respect to Adam Thielen, I think it’d be a stretch to label him a valid complement to Justin Jefferson. For the last two years, the NFL’s best receiver and reigning Offensive Player of the Year has mostly dismantled defenses by himself.
In a way, this is fine because Jefferson has proven that extra attention doesn’t really do much to stop him from taking over a game. But at the same time, you can’t ask Jefferson to produce more than 200 yards every Sunday and be the only real threat defensive coordinators have to be worried about.
For the Vikings to draft a speedster like Addison at the end of the first round is a remarkable value and exactly the kind of player Jefferson needed.
Think about this situation like a defensive coach.
You can shadow Jefferson with your No. 1 corner and bracket a safety over the top. You know, the standard setup. But doing so no longer guarantees the Vikings’ offense dries up like a well. In devoting more focus to Jefferson, Addison gets single coverage and a better opportunity to take the top off your defense.
It’s a no-win situation that every team in the NFC North should especially be wary of.
Losers
The Detroit Lions take the wind out of their own sails
I did not think the Lions were reading this much of their press clippings. I did not think this organization was really running victory laps for almost making the playoffs with everyone on the outside anointing them. I thought the Lions were turning a corner as a potential genuine powerhouse in the NFC and a bona fide Super Bowl contender.
Silly me.
I guess I underestimated the Lions’ underlying instinct to revert to the mean when everyone finally believes in their future. Oops.
I know D’Andre Swift has seemingly lost favor with Detroit headed into the final year of his rookie contract, which is why Jahmyr Gibbs is now a Lion. I understand that Dan Campbell needed an influx of linebacking play, which is why Jack Campbell will now wear Honolulu Blue.
But… drafting a running back and linebacker with two top-20 picks? What is it, 1998? I thought general manager Brad Holmes was more of a forward-thinking executive, not someone who would take the least valuable, most replaceable positions in the sport with his two most premium draft picks.
The Lions had an interesting first round. According to ESPN Analytics there was a:
🦁 >99% chance Jahmyr Gibbs would've still been available at No. 18
🦁 96% chance Jack Campbell would've still been available at No. 34 pic.twitter.com/ZJpsd9Oxak— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) April 28, 2023
The Lions had ample opportunity to address more important, field-tilting spots on their roster, like at cornerback and receiver. Instead, they were elated to travel back to a bully-ball style of NFL play that now only works when every other piece is in place.
Brad Holmes almost breaks the table in excitement as he and Dan Campbell are glad to draft the versatile, explosive Jahmyr Gibbs #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/51bsgVqsMb
— Andrew Jones (@TWDTV1) April 28, 2023
Vintage Lions.
Will Levis, the true meme stock of the NFL Draft
So much for Levis becoming one of the highest-drafted players with an inflated chat forum draft stock. Levis having this much belief in his ability was a clear and blatant lie, and I hold genuine sympathy for anyone who thought NFL teams valued his raw profile.
Today will mark the second day of the draft. Levis is still available. Despite someone who was getting legitimate top-five chatter (even for the No. 1 pick!), that is a stark drop.
Between two whole rounds of the draft Friday, Levis probably (?) won’t wait much longer. Unfortunately, expect the internet to continue being ruthless about his slide while sitting in the green room.
Will Levis with the espn camera pans over to him and his mom in the green room pic.twitter.com/i2kJFDvD72
— John (@iam_johnw) April 28, 2023
Unexpected slides for blue-chip players from blue-blood programs
There are usually a few surprising players still available on Day 2 of the draft. I have to say, this year’s crop is more eye-opening than usual. Especially given the pedigree on hand.
A potential Day 1 starting cornerback in Penn State’s Joey Porter Jr.? He’s still on the board!
A complete (if kind of plodding) tight end in Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer? Hey, still on the board!
A stud slot cornerback with polish in Alabama’s Brian Branch? Whoa, still available!
Getting drafted and playing in the NFL will be a dream come true for each of these young men. But losing out on that worthy first-round chance still had to understandably sting at first.
A tough opening round for the wide receiver class
In the end, we saw the 2023 NFL’s draft premier receivers get drafted. Eventually. Even if it took a few more hours than we thought.
It’s not like the top of this class was weak, per se. Between Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison, I wouldn’t be shocked if all four are thriving in Seattle, Los Angeles, Baltimore, and Minnesota, respectively. But no one was a Ja’Marr Chase. Or a Jefferson. This squad’s slide down into the 20s validates my pre-draft suspicion that this wasn’t the most inspiring group of pass targets.
Being drafted late in the first round isn’t the worst outcome, even if it means a hit to their wallets. Heck, it might add a degree of motivation for these guys as other teams “dared” to pass over them. But the NFL consensus didn’t seem high on their playmaking prospects ahead of the draft, and that assessment held up.
The Buffalo Bills and their desperate panic for Josh Allen help
The Bills knew better than anyone they couldn’t enter the 2023 season hanging Josh Allen out to dry again. They saw the effects of what it meant to ask their Terminator to do everything — an early playoff loss where he finally couldn’t carry them on his back.
So, after they watched the four best receivers in this year’s draft go to three other teams right in front of them, the Bills didn’t want to waste any more time. They traded up. They got help for Allen (and, by extension, Stefon Diggs).
They traded up for move tight end Dalton Kincaid. Uh, alright. We all make our own choices.
Kincaid will make an impact in the NFL. He will be someone linebackers struggle to cover. But did the Bills really have to trade up for him? Doesn’t Dawson Knox fill this role already? Where was the urgency to get a Smith-Njigba or Flowers when they were still available? I can’t imagine that theoretical trade-up would’ve been too much for a team that fancies itself a Super Bowl contender.
Everything about the Bills’ strategy Thursday night is perplexing, but I think I know what happened: They sat on their hands, thinking weapons would fall to them. A run of weapons happened, and they didn’t move fast enough. Then they panicked accordingly. With this sort of awful process, the goodwill of the early Brandon Beane era should evaporate.
Good luck, Mr. Allen. You’ll definitely need it.
