The Super Bowl is in the rearview mirror, so it’s now time to start the second half of the (yes, very full) NFL calendar — the offseason!
(Trumpets blare, a triumphant bass provides a not-so-subtle underscore.)
First up, before we even have a chance to diagnose the chaos of next month’s free agency period, we have to examine the franchise tag status for a number of the league’s bigger names. No one wants to use a tag, per se — players who are ready for the open market, especially — but it is a backup tool to keep quality talent around for at least another year.
As a reminder, franchise tags are determined by the average of the top-five salaries at a player’s positional designation. Every NFL team also only gets one per offseason, and they are strictly on a one-year basis. Per Over The Cap’s current projections (they could always change), the current franchise tag salaries are as follows:
Offense:
- Quarterbacks: $35.9 million
- Offensive linemen: $21.7 million
- Receivers: $21.6 million
- Running backs: $12.4 million
- Tight ends: $12.3 million
Defense:
- Defensive ends: $23.3 million
- Linebackers: $21.9 million
- Defensive tackles: $19.7 million
- Cornerbacks: $18.4 million
- Safeties: $17.2 million
Let’s break down the most notable potential franchise tag situations around the league and determine which field tilters have a chance at actually hitting free agency. The deadline is March 5 at 4 p.m. Eastern time.
No pressure, everyone!
All cap and salary numbers are per Over The Cap.
1
CB Jaylon Johnson, Chicago Bears
Projected tag: $18.4 million
Johnson has been seeking a long-term contract extension from the Bears since last preseason. When neither he nor the Bears could reach common ground before the 2023 trade deadline, Johnson bet on himself in the best way. The 24-year-old enjoyed the finest season of his career, recording four interceptions while earning Pro Bowl and Second-Team All-Pro honors for the first time. Injuries remain the only real knock on Johnson, who missed three games last year with separate hamstring and shoulder issues.
All of that said, Johnson is integral to the make-up of head coach Matt Eberflus’s defense. It would behoove Chicago to reward a seemingly still-ascending core player with a lucrative contract. At the very least, the Bears have the fail-safe franchise tag ready to deploy if they fall short in talks with Johnson again. (Whether he’d be happy about it is a different story.)
2
QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected tag: $35.9 million
Mayfield was supposed to be a “bridge” quarterback for the Buccaneers. He was supposed to be someone who just filled in the gaps while an apparently rebuilding team sat back and stocked up for the future. Then a surprisingly good Tampa Bay team won the NFC South for the third straight season and also advanced to the divisional round.
Given where the Buccaneers stand in the current NFL draft order (No. 26 overall), they likely will not find a new quarterback of the future this spring. If they do draft someone, that person will probably be a project. That means Mayfield, who is still just 28 years old, is in prime position to be Tampa Bay’s starter in 2024. Without departed offensive coordinator Dave Canales, though, it’ll be harder to build on a stellar 2023, where Mayfield threw for over 4,000 yards and nearly 30 touchdowns. But beggars can’t be choosers when it comes to ostensible quality quarterback play.
Whether Mayfield receives a Brinks truck of cash in the form of a contract or tag is up in the air. Even then, it’s highly unlikely he won’t roam the Tampa Bay sideline in 2024.
3
WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected tag: $21.6 million
Pop quiz, hot shot.
Who has more career receiving yards and touchdowns:
- Travis Kelce, the No. 1 option on the best team in the league, who is also a universally agreed-upon future First-Ballot Hall of Famer?
- Or Mike Evans, one of the best receivers of his generation but someone who is probably quite far from Kelce’s overall profile?
It’s Evans, and it’s not even close, really. Despite playing just five fewer games, Evans has recorded 11,680 yards to Kelce’s 11,328 and 94 touchdowns to Kelce’s 74. Not that Evans’ own Hall of Fame candidacy should be in doubt; this is more comparative context for how special Evans has been in relation to one of the most famous players in the sport.
Even at the age of 30, Evans remained one of the NFL’s most productive playmakers in 2023. He is the definition of consistency and almost always delivers. The Buccaneers would be foolish to let their best player walk in free agency. But his likely exorbitant price tag could scare them away from a long-term commitment, especially given the history of receivers declining in their 30s. Plus, a dicey situation with multiple (and perhaps more important) Buccaneers also deserving of a tag (every team only gets one, remember?) might mean Evans will soon be shining for another contender in 2024.
4
S Antoine Winfield Jr. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected tag: $17.2 million
An immediate impact rookie on a Super Bowl winner, Winfield has morphed into a superstar difference-maker on the back end. A First-Team All-Pro last season, Winfield might be the most versatile safety in the league.
Need someone to step up in the box and provide stellar run support? He’s got it, no sweat. Need someone with range to play center field in the passing game? He’s got it, no sweat. Need someone to be a tone-setter, a leader?
You get the idea.
It’d be hard to see Winfield and the Buccaneers not agreeing on a monstrous contract in the coming weeks. All-around 25-year-old safeties don’t grow on trees. But they will almost certainly save their tag in their back pocket for him, in particular, in a worst-case scenario.
5
DL Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs
Projected tag: $19.7 million
In terms of defensive wrecking balls, only Aaron Donald might have been more impactful over the last decade than Jones. Jones will walk into Canton one day as the centerpiece of an underrated Chiefs defense with three Super Bowl rings to his name. He’s got iconic moments to point to as part of his resume, too.
But for now, Jones is just 30 and probably has plenty left in the tank. He’s already had contentious negotiations with the Chiefs in the past, missing their 2023 season opener before agreeing to an incentive-laden one-year deal. He’s poised to enter free agency on the heels of back-to-back championships and Defensive Player of the Year-caliber seasons. Provided Jones doesn’t hamper his own negotiations with the Chiefs in public (cough, cough), bringing him back to Kansas City should be a no-brainer for all parties.
He is worth exactly what he’s been asking for (around $30 million per season) for nearly a year.
6
WR Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
Projected tag: $21.6 million
The Bengals find themselves in a bind.
This offseason will be the first time they will have to seriously consider breaking up a core that won five playoff games in two years and fell just short of winning Super Bowl 56. Higgins is central to their dilemma. He’s a No. 2 receiver that would likely be a No. 1 playmaker on almost any other NFL offense. The problem is that his receiving teammate, Ja’Marr Chase — who is better and more valuable to the Bengals — is up for a contract extension.
That means Cincinnati has to choose between extending Chase and performing salary cap gymnastics to keep Higgins or offloading the young receiver for a significant draft haul. The Bengals aren’t necessarily that tight to the cap (Chase’s extension is notwithstanding). But tagging Higgins now after handsomely rewarding Joe Burrow and Chase would just be kicking the bucket down the road. And at a certain point, recouping premium draft capital is the more prudent move for a roster that will eventually need a significant retool to stay afloat in a very competitive AFC.
7
DL Justin Madubuike, Baltimore Ravens
Projected tag: $19.7 million
Perhaps more than anyone, 2023 was the year of Justin Madubuike. He led all defensive tackles in sacks (13) and quarterback hits (33) and was arguably the top player on a defense that also featured fellow All-Pros Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton. No one controlled the line of scrimmage quite like Madubuike this past fall.
At the moment, the Ravens are unfortunately up against the wall with limited salary cap space (just over $7 million). So it remains to be seen whether they can even re-sign a 26-year-old defensive tackle breaking out at the perfect time. A franchise tag on Madubuike feels all but inevitable for a juggernaut team that needs him to finally break through with a Super Bowl championship during the Lamar Jackson era.
8
DE Christian Wilkins, Miami Dolphins
Projected tag: $23.3 million
Wilkins has to be thanking his lucky stars that the Dolphins technically list him as a defensive end, even though he’s mostly an interior force. This means a bigger payday is probably headed his way, regardless of whether he and the Dolphins can agree on a new contract.
Miami has typically not placed a premium on reinvesting in defensive linemen, letting talents like Olivier Vernon walk even after tagging him. But Wilkins is a consistently disruptive force who is integral to the Dolphins’ current win-now window. They’ve already used their fifth-year option on him as a former first-round pick. The next step is a huge contract for a core player entering his prime on a Miami squad that desperately needs a breakthrough in January.
If they wanted to tag Wilkins, that could open up Pandora’s Box for a jilted player who probably feels he deserves more financial security near his 30s. Such is the balance of a tag that many players don’t appreciate in the first place.
9
EDGE Brian Burns, Carolina Panthers
Projected tag: $23.3 million
Fun fact: The Panthers once rejected a trade that would’ve given them two first-rounders in exchange for Burns’ services. So it stands to reason they’d move Heaven and Earth to keep him wearing Carolina black and blue, right? Right???
Well, we’re now entering Year 3 of foibles with Burns’ contract situation. And the price tag for premium edge rushers keeps going up. Somehow, they still haven’t extended the dude they wouldn’t take two first-round picks for! (Sorry, just saying it for emphasis).
Burns will get nowhere near the $88 million fully guaranteed money that Nick Bosa received last season. But he will use it as a benchmark as a player who typically records double-digit sacks and 20 or so quarterback hits every year. Tagging Burns feels like an obvious move if he and the Panthers can’t move past their impasse — is anyone else on this woeful roster even worth building around for the future? — but that also runs the potential risk of alienating another franchise player who has patiently waited his turn.
10
DE Josh Allen, Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected tag: $23.3 million
The other Josh Allen has quietly become one of the most productive front-four players in pro football. And while playing on a fifth-year option last season, Allen recorded a whopping 17.5 sacks and 33 quarterback hits. If he played on a higher-profile team, there’s a chance we’d be talking about Allen as one of the defensive faces of the NFL.
The Jaguars should extend Allen and have no qualms about giving him something similar to what Montez Sweat received from the Bears (four years, $98 million). He is, indeed, that good and that dominant. But they don’t have too much cap space (just over $11.2 million) without more pending tinkering and will assuredly save the tag as a “break glass in case of emergency” procedure.
11
WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
Projected tag: $21.6 million
Pittman is a fascinating case study. Because with a listed 6-foot-4, 223-pound frame and a 40-yard dash of 4.52, you’d think he’d be more productive. He has the prototypical build of an X-receiver with size and speed, after all. And yet, he has just two 1,000-plus-yard seasons in his career. What’s the deal here?
Even after overcoming early-career injuries, Pittman projects as more of a No. 2 receiver in a good offense in the long run. He came through admirably for Gardner Minshew last season, but giving him a franchise player-level commitment is a little more tentative than Pittman would probably like. He just won’t break a game like you’d want with a real No. 1 receiver. As a 26-year-old player who could still help give Anthony Richardson a higher floor this September, Pittman likely has the most obvious case for a tag of anyone on this list.
