Lib Dems plotting to topple the Tory “Blue Wall” have identified the “Surrey shuffle” as a key driver which could help oust Rishi Sunak from No10.
While Labour maintains a strong poll lead over the Conservatives, some insiders admit it may not be enough to secure an overall majority at the next election - due by January 2025 at the latest.
They say Lib Dems could perform a vital role in seizing Tory seats in its traditional southern strongholds, while Keir Starmer ’s party builds back its Red Wall in the North and Midlands.
Lib Dems told the Mirror the “Surrey shuffle” - where Tory-hating voters move out of inner London, where they voted Labour, to leafy suburbs and commuter belt Home Counties, where they back the Lib Dems - could strip Mr Sunak of key constituencies.
Party strategists named 10 Tory-held seats they plan to target in the run-up to the next election, which many expect in spring 2024.
None is in the Brexit-backing West Country, the pro-EU Lib Dems’ own previous heartland.
Constituencies in the crosshairs include Chancellor Jeremy Hunt ’s seat in South West Surrey, where he has an 8,817 majority, and Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab ’s Esher and Walton constituency in Surrey, where the Lib Dems came within 2,743 votes of ousting him in December 2019.
One Lib Dem source called potential supporters “the Charles Kennedy voters, anguished liberals who have a social conscience, are affluent and usually female”.
Mr Kennedy’s latest successor as party chief, Sir Ed Davey, has been buoyed by two stunning by-election victories over the Tories in the last 12 months.
The Lib Dems, who spent five years in coalition with the Conservatives from 2010 to 2015, won the North Shropshire ballot, where the Conservatives held a 22,949 majority, by 5,925 votes last December.
In June, they overturned a 24,239 majority in Tiverton and Honiton, winning by 6,144 votes.
The party’s deputy leader Daisy Cooper told the Mirror: “The Conservative Party has taken people for granted for far too long and is now feeling the consequences in their former heartlands.
"Brick by brick the Blue Wall is falling down as lifelong Conservative voters tell us they have had enough with this incompetent government.
"Across vast swathes of England it is a two-horse race between an out of touch Conservative Party, or a hardworking Liberal Democrat MP.
“Increasingly, Labour voters know that in areas like Surrey, Hertfordshire and Cambridgeshire, only the Liberal Democrats can beat the Conservative Party."
One of the Lib Dems’ main targets is Remain-supporting Wimbledon, where they lost to the Tories by just 628 votes three years ago.
Conservative MP Stephen Hammond, a former minister, will face a renewed challenge at the next ballot from Paul Kohler, a lecturer who made national headlines in 2014 when he was beaten up a vicious raid on his home.
He needed facial reconstruction surgery after the attack.
A senior local Tory admitted it was likely the party would lose the seat - but claimed Labour would win.
Citing the example of Battersea in South London - which switched from the Tories to Labour in 2017 - they pointed to Labour voters moving from inner London to more affluent areas of the capital, but sticking with the party.
“We’ll lose Wimbledon, but not to the Lib Dems,” they insisted.
Another Lib Dem source cautioned colleagues not to get carried away with by-election victories, where the party can call in foot soldiers from around the country to knock doors and deliver leaflets - which it simply cannot do at a general election with hundreds of seats contested.
The insider claimed that of three bombshell by-election victories since June 2021 in North Shropshire, Tiverton & Honiton and Chesham & Amersham, the Lib Dems may only hold the Shropshire constituency, with the other two returning blue.
However, the Conservatives will be forced to pump resources into such seats - and Lib Dem targets - meaning less cash to spend defending Red Wall constituencies.
“They are going to target Raab’s Esher seat and neglect others - he’s DPM, they can’t afford for him to lose,” they said.
“Labour are delighted - if the Tories are going to spend money saving Dom they aren’t going to spend money in Blyth.”
Another Lib Dem source claimed activists had “never known anything like it on the doorstep”.
They added: “Conservative voters are furious after years of Government scandals and failure to deal with the cost of living crisis.
“After our thumping by-election wins we're now turning our fire power on ousting Conservative MPs across the country.
“Our army of door knockers are raring to go."
Ten seats the Lib Dems will target
South Cambridgeshire
Winchester, Hants
Cheadle, Greater Manchester
Eastbourne, East Sussex
Lewes, East Sussex
Wimbledon, South West London
Guildford, Surrey
South West Surrey
Cheltenham, Glos
Esher and Walton, Surrey
Meet the candidates aiming to oust the Tories
Winchester
SEAT: Winchester
TORY MAJORITY: 985
CANDIDATE: Danny Chambers
AGE: 40
BACKSTORY: Grew up on a farm and works as a vet treating horses, cats and dogs in and around Winchester.
SAYS: “The Government is throwing our British farmers under a bus with trade deals - it’s not only farmers and vets who care about our animal welfare standards, but the British public do too and we shouldn’t be lowering them.”
Eastbourne
SEAT: Eastbourne, East Sussex
TORY MAJORITY: 4,331
CANDIDATE: Josh Babarinde
AGE: 29
BACKSTORY: Spent years supporting young people out of gangs and into work through an award-winning business he set up. From a working class community in the seaside town, became one of the youngest people ever to receive an OBE for his anti-crime work, at the age of 26.
SAYS: “Support for the Tories in Eastbourne is melting faster than a 99 ice cream on a summer’s day, especially because our hard-working foodbank has officially become the busiest in the country under the Conservatives.”
Esher & Walton
SEAT: Esher & Walton, Surrey
TORY MAJORITY: 2,743
CANDIDATE: Monica Harding
AGE: 50
BACKSTORY: Worked internationally in the private and public sectors as a director, chief executive and management consultant. Entered politics just before the last election to try and defeat Dominic Raab.
SAYS: “We’re all fed up and we want change. The people of Esher and Walton want proper representation after being ignored for 12 years. They don’t take kindly to Dominic Raab as Boris Johnson ’s nodding dog through scandal after scandal. If change happens here it can happen anywhere.”
Wimbledon
SEAT : Wimbledon, South West London
TORY MAJORITY: 628
CANDIDATE: Paul Kohler
AGE: 63
BACKSTORY: In 2014 four Polish burglars stormed his house and beat Paul while demanding money. His life was saved by the rapid response of police from his local police station. The story made the national headlines with Paul badly beaten and his wife hooded and threatened.
SAYS: "Without my local police I would not be alive today. That is why I'm furious they are closing community police stations. In Wimbledon we've had enough of these short-sighted and dangerous cuts.”
Cheadle
SEAT: Cheadle, Greater Manchester
TORY MAJORITY: 2,336
CANDIDATE: Tom Morrison
AGE: 40
BACKSTORY: Raised by his mum Kate, a voluntary sector worker who often had to work several jobs at a time to put her sons through school. When he was 13, he, his mum and brother were threatened with homelessness. He cites the moment a local councillor got his family a council house as the single most transformative moment in his life.
SAYS: “If the Tories think the Blue Wall is only in the South then they have another thing coming. They have no safe seats left.”
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