Will the real 49ers please stand up?
The 2022 49ers enter the second half of the season needing to declare who they are. San Francisco has produced some sterling performances this campaign, but has also fallen short against teams they were favored to beat.
Yet there is plenty of reason for optimism around the team heading out of the bye, with the previous 49ers game one in which they routed the Rams 31-14.
So how will the second half of the season pan out for a 4-4 Niners. Our 10 predictions for the final nine games paint the picture of an extremely positive stretch run for Kyle Shanahan’s team.
Division sweep lays platform for NFC West title
The 49ers haven’t won the NFC West since 2019, when they were the number one seed in the NFC and went on to represent the conference in Super Bowl LIV.
That year, the Niners were 5-1 inside their division, however, they managed the same number of division wins over the course of the subsequent two seasons.
Last season, an overtime division win over the Rams in Week 18 booked the 49ers’ place in the postseason, but it was only their second NFC West win of the campaign and San Francisco would have made the playoffs in much more comfortable fashion if sweeps by the Seahawks and Cardinals had been avoided.
For all the 49ers’ inconsistency this year, they are in a strong position in the division despite being 1.5 games back of surprise leaders the Seahawks. The Niners are 3-0 in the NFC West after beating the Seahawks in Week 2 and sweeping the Rams for the fourth successive season.
The Niners’ hopes of regaining the West crown may rest on a Week 15 Thursday Night Football game at Seattle that figures to be an extremely tough test. Yet the 49ers already proved in their home opener that they have more talent than the Seahawks, while their other two remaining division games are against a Cardinals team that cannot cut out the mistakes and at 3-6 is closer to a top-10 pick than a playoff challenge.
Each time the 49ers have played a division game this season, they have made their evident superiority count. The smart money says they will do so the rest of the way, with a 6-0 record inside the NFC West propelling a team that has the eighth-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL to a division title and a home playoff game.
Drake Jackson emerges as a defensive standout
Though Spencer Burford is in a rotation at right guard with Daniel Brunskill and has not looked out of place on the interior of the offensive line, the rookie fourth-round pick does not play a position that lends itself to splash plays or notoriety.
In terms of highlight reel plays, it is Drake Jackson – the 49ers’ first pick in the 2022 draft – who has delivered the most, with no rookies beyond Jackson and Burford getting the playing time to make an impact.
But the 49ers have to be thrilled with the contributions they have had from both, and Jackson is in position to become a standout difference-maker for the Niners down the stretch.
The former USC edge rusher has three sacks to his name and has impressed with his athleticism and pass-rush arsenal, continually creating disruption off the edge and when rushing inside on stunts.
He has also helped the 49ers fill the void left by the absences of Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw on the interior of the defensive line.
San Francisco is hopeful the former will return soon and, with Armstead back in the lineup, Jackson would be free to spend more time as a rotational pass rusher off the edge.
The evidence from the first half of the season says he will thrive in that role and deliver consistent splash plays that help the Niners clinch a playoff place and solidify him as one of the more exciting young pass rushers in the league.
Right tackle becomes offseason priority
The job of an offensive lineman is a thankless one and for no member of the 49er O-Line is that more true than for Mike McGlinchey.
McGlinchey is a solid starting tackle in the NFL but has continued to draw criticism for allowing sacks off the edge in a year where he has again struggled to stay healthy.
That is the cruel nature of his job. Offensive linemen win most of their reps against defenders but the focus is predominantly only placed on those they lose.
Still, in a contract year, McGlinchey’s play is not getting better and it’s easy to see the 49ers believing they could get a similar if not better level of performance for a more reasonable price than they would have to pay to extend their 2018 first-round pick. They also have the option of moving Burford to right tackle.
McGlinchey may improve in the second half, but not at a level to make it likely the 49ers commit to keep him around long term. Regardless of how San Francisco fares the rest of the way, a replacement right tackle looks set to be high on the franchise’s offseason shopping list.
Nick Bosa furthers case for mega deal
Such is their track record of drafting and acquiring elite talent that the 49ers always seem to have a contract extension looming over their offseason plans. That is the price of doing business when you’re one of the most talented teams in the NFL, and this coming offseason it is edge rusher Bosa for whom San Francisco will have to pay up.
How much leverage will Bosa have? His play in 2022 suggests a remarkable amount.
He is the undisputed cornerstone of the 49er defense. Bosa is second in the NFL in sacks with 8.5, putting him on pace for a career-high 19 after racking up 15.5 in a dominant 2021 campaign.
Nothing in his play over the first half of the season indicates Bosa will slow down during the stretch run. He is a player who delivers in high-leverage games for the Niners – Bosa has eight sacks in six career playoff games – and his success in doing so again in 2022 will almost certainly lead the 49ers to make him the NFL’s highest-paid defensive player.
Ray-Ray McCloud scores a kick return touchdown
The 49ers haven’t scored a kick return touchdown since Richie James took one to the house in a 2018 win over the Seahawks.
But McCloud, whom the 49ers signed to play a complementary role in the offense as well as lead the return duties, has given San Francisco some juice in that department. He has eight returns of at least 20 yards. Only four returners have more this season.
Steadily improving on the offensive side of the ball, McCloud is proving a decent acquisition by San Francisco, and his signing will look even better when he breaks a return for a score in a crucial game.
Arik Armstead shows his worth
Defensive tackle Armstead has missed the last four games because of foot and ankle injuries and, while the 49ers have kept themselves firmly in the mix without him, it is clear his presence has been missed, reducing San Francisco’s ability to create pressure from the interior and robbing a stout run defense of one of its greatest assets.
Since Arik Armstead moved to DT permanently in middle of last year, #49ers have a pass rush win rate of 50.4% and run stop win rate of 36% when he's on the field.
When Armstead isn't on the field, they have a pass rush win rate of 42.3% and run stop win rate of 33.6%.
— Nick Wagoner (@nwagoner) November 4, 2022
The impact of his injury was most keenly felt during the losses to the Falcons and Chiefs, which saw the 49ers give up 168 and 112 rushing yards in back-to-back games before they rebounded against the Rams in Week 8.
If the 49ers get Armstead back in the near future as expected, he will give them a force on the interior to solidify their rush defense as the best in the NFL and take the burden off Kevin Givens and Charles Omenihu in terms of pass rush from the defensive tackle spot.
When healthy, Armstead is a crucial part of the 49er defense and, having had the time to rest his foot rather than rush back, he should be ready to wreak havoc and remind everyone of his value to this team when he returns.
Samuel Womack plays pivotal snaps
It has been a rollercoaster of a rookie season for Samuel Womack III, who initially won the nickel corner job only to be replaced by Deommodore Lenoir.
Lenoir made that role his own but has had to shift to outside corner in recent weeks due to the injury to Emmanuel Moseley. He continues to enjoy an impressive second season, but the 49ers need a solution on the inside.
Jimmie Ward played the slot in Week 8, but a shift to his more familiar role of safety may well come to the pass during the second half of the year. Jason Verrett has critical inside-out versatility and is set to return from a torn ACL but comes with a well-documented nightmare injury history.
As such, it is easy to see a world in which the 49ers need to rely on Womack, who displayed significant promise in preseason and made a big play on special teams against the Rams before the bye.
Womack has never looked overawed when thrown into action and, should the 49ers be forced to put him back in the role for which they originally selected him, his maturity, coverage ability and ball skills figure to allow him to thrive and prove another value pick in the fifth round.
The Niners have four 1k players
Yes, the 49er offense has been inconsistent, but it is also stacked with playmakers who know how to deliver production when given the chance.
Between Christian McCaffrey, whose addition to the offense saw the San Francisco attack deliver its best display of the season against the Rams, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, the 49ers have four offensive weapons who are theoretically in position to reach 1,000 yards from scrimmage.
McCaffrey, across his six games with the Panthers and two with the Niners, already has 881 yards from scrimmage. Aiyuk is on pace for his first 1,000-yard receiving season and Samuel already has 525 yards from scrimmage.
Kittle has the tallest task with 319 receiving yards to his name, but this offense has the talent and the play-caller to be consistent down the stretch and for each of this quartet to enjoy dominant games that will get them across the 1,000-yard mark.
The 49er attack had the look of one ready to ascend back to the summit of the NFL during the stretch run the last time it took the field. It will have unquestionably achieved that feat if all four of the Niners’ top skill position players are on four figures come the end of the year.
Jimmy Garoppolo to give 49ers an offseason QB headache
Whisper it quietly, but Garoppolo is playing his best football since 2019.
He was fourth in Football Outsiders DYAR, which measures total value, and third in DVOA, a gauge of per-play value, before Week 9.
With 11 touchdowns in seven games, he is on pace to throw his highest number since tossing 27 in 2019, and Garoppolo went into the bye off an extremely composed and confident performance against the Rams.
Set up with a plethora of weapons and an offensive line that is healthy as it’s been all season, Garoppolo is in an ideal spot to continue to perform at a very high level.
Should he do so, it will reopen the debate about whether it is wise to move on from Garoppolo and start the Trey Lance era again when he is recovered from his season-ending ankle injury.
San Francisco needs to see what it has in Lance given the investment it made in the 2021 third overall pick, but there will be plenty calling for the 49ers to keep Garoppolo around and make it a competition if he maintains his impressive form as he appears poised to do during the second half.
49ers to face Eagles in NFC Championship Game
It’s difficult to be overly confident about the 49ers given the volatility they have displayed over their first eight games.
But even after a slump against the Falcons and Chiefs, the 49ers’ numbers are those of one of the best teams in the NFC. Seventh in yards per play on offense, third in yards per play allowed on defense, the 49ers had the appearance of the biggest threat to the Eagles in the NFC when they obliterated the Rams.
They need to put together those performances more regularly going forward, but the ecosystem is there on both sides of the ball for the 49ers to establish themselves as a top-tier team in the NFC along with Philadelphia.
A 49ers-Eagles conference title game in Philadelphia would be a massive obstacle in the road to a return to the biggest stage, but it’s one the Niners have the playoff experience and the talent to come through.
