First thing first; almost everyone in the NFL had a good draft. Especially *your* team.
Earlier in the week I wrote one nice thing about every franchise’s draft haul. In some cases, like for the Indianapolis Colts, it was extraordinarily easy. In others, like the bottom-heavy hauls of the Los Angeles Rams or San Francisco 49ers, it was a little more difficult.
But the fact remains there was no doofus draft class sitting in the corner waiting to be mocked. Even the teams with barely any draft capital still made solid picks that can lift their rosters in 2023 and beyond.
With that in mind, it wasn’t all roses in Kansas City. Questionable decisions were made. Now we point them out and try to poke holes in the logic behind them. Let’s dig into each team, starting at the top of the alphabet.
Arizona Cardinals: They traded up and burned assets to draft the first offensive lineman in a draft without a true top tackle
The Cardinals aren’t in position to compete in 2023. They might not get there in 2024 either. Despite this, they shipped away a second round pick to move back up in the first round and select Paris Johnson Jr.. Johnson Jr. is a solid enough prospect and the Bears and Titans’ offensive line selections suggest Arizona would have been relegated to 2023’s third-best blocker had it stayed at No. 12.
But that’s not a bad place to be in a year without an alpha offensive tackle. Johnson might be the top of his class, or Darnell Wright might be. Or Broderick Jones. Or Peter Skoronski. Two of those guys would have been available at the twelfth pick. That, plus the 34th overall selection, might have been more valuable for a rebuilding club.
Atlanta Falcons: The eighth overall pick plays the same position as 2022's top rookie
Bijan Robinson is very good. But so is Tyler Allgeier, who ran for 711 yards and 5.6 per carry over the final nine games of the Falcons’ season. With needs at cornerback and edge rusher, Atlanta opted to bolster a strength and pick up a player who might be 2023’s best available tailback, but also one of a wide class of players — both rookies and veterans — who could have had an impact in the Falcons’ backfield at a much lower cost.
Baltimore Ravens: Zay Flowers can't do this by himself
Lamar Jackson at full strength will be a boon for the Ravens’ middling passing offense. There are still several questions plaguing his receiving corps. The only guy in his top three wideout targets to have played more than six games last season was Flowers, who did it at Boston College.
The Ravens decided to bulk up their defense instead of finding more meaningful offensive help, making Flowers their only offensive pick before the sixth round. The blueprint for a run-heavy offense and smothering defense (albeit with questions at cornerback) is back in place, but that hasn’t led to sustained postseason success in the Jackson era.
Buffalo Bills: Where's the WR2 needed to lighten Josh Allen's (and Stefon Diggs') load?
Allen had an inconsistent 2022; eight games with a passer rating over 100 (good!) and six where it was less than 80 (bad!). Most notable among them was his playoff loss to the Bengals, where Cincinnati bracketed Stefon Diggs and limited him to just 35 receiving yards on 10 targets. With no one else to pick up the slack downfield (tight end Dawson Knox and running back Devin Singletary pulled some weight), the Bills limped to a 27-10 loss.
Adding Dalton Kincaid to the passing attack helps, but it’s clear Buffalo needed another big time wideout to step up and create another viable option downfield. Now Allen have have to hope fifth round pick Justin Shorter (29 catches in 2022 while playing with Anthony Richardson) can be that guy.
Carolina Panthers: If Bryce Young isn't the guy, it's back to purgatory
Carolina cashed in some draft chips and made its move after three seasons of seeing what retread quarterbacks can do (notably: win 17 total games). Young is a worthy investment and the Panthers have the defense to back him through growing pains. But if he doesn’t pan out, there’s no light at the end of the tunnel.
The NFC South is weak and the rest of the Carolina roster is strong enough to get this team to seven-plus wins even with a malfunctioning robot behind center. If Young doesn’t pan out, a reset will be a long hard road that could lead the Panthers back to the retread veteran market thanks to either not having a first round pick (2024) or being just good enough to avoid a top five pick (2025 onward).
Chicago Bears: That's all they were able to turn four top 75 picks into?
The Bears’ draft is fine, just lacking. After dealing back from the top overall spot, Chicago was in prime position to take a handful of big name prospects and speed along its rebuild.
Instead, it landed some solid if unexciting line prospects on both sides of the ball and a second round cornerback. It’s sensible, but a team in need of star power layed low this draft. Well, there’s always next year — where the Bears have the Panthers’ first and second-round picks.
Cincinnati Bengals: If their young secondary doesn't come through, they're cooked
Myles Murphy was a solid addition at the back of the first round, but Cincinnati could regret selecting him over Joey Porter Jr. or not trading up for another cornerback after suffering significant losses in the secondary. Jessie Bates III, Vonn Bell and Eli Apple are no longer on the roster and Chidobe Awuzie has been limited to only eight games in two of the last three seasons. The Bengals invested significant capital in upgrading that group over the last two drafts — but that may not have been enough.
Cleveland Browns: There's probably a reason all these great values fell in their lap
Cleveland didn’t have a selection in the top 80 and still walked away with a draft haul of well-regarded talent. Cedric Tillman, Dawand Jones and Siaki Ika are all useful prospects drafted roughly one round later than expected.
So why did the rest of the league avoid them? Was it Jones’ lack of pro blocking technique? Ika’s below-average athleticism at defensive tackle? Tillman’s ankle injury and lack of explosion? It’s possible the Browns simply got lucky and had great players slip to them in a draft where they lacked top-line picks — but since when does this franchise get lucky?
Dallas Cowboys: Ah that's sensible. And boring.
Dallas built on a contender by filling gaping holes in its roster and adding reinforcements on both sides of the ball. But Jerry Jones’ most exciting pick was … a Michigan tight end? Deuce Vaughn? It’s all very good, but I wanted to hear Jerry Jones breathlessly extoll the virtues of his new first round running back or something equally iffy-and-entertaining after a long draft.
Denver Broncos: How's this going to help broken Russell Wilson?
Riley Moss and Drew Sanders were great value picks who can keep a good defense afloat (the Broncos notably backslid late in the season, though whether that’s from fatigue or just the rigors of losing behind a doofus quarterback aren’t clear). But Marvin Mims, as good as he may be, feels like treading water for an offense already stocked with young, solid wideouts who couldn’t save Wilson in 2022.
Sean Payton has a vision here and he worked wonders with late-stage Drew Brees. But without a selection in the top 60, it’s fair to wonder whether or not he’s got the personnel to execute it.
Detroit Lions: There were more pressing needs to fill than running back and inside linebacker
The Lions fielded 2022’s 28th-ranked defense and still nearly made the playoffs anyway. Maybe that’s why Detroit felt it could take a running back with the 12th overall pick (after fielding the league’s 14th-best rushing offense).
But 2023’s draft had plenty of talented mid-round tailback help — and the same goes for off-ball linebackers, a position the Lions reached for with the 18th selection. Jahmyr Gibbs and Jack Campbell are talented prospects but won’t return the kind of value over replacement (or salary cap savings) a pass rusher or cornerback would have in a similar slot.
Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love's going to be throwing to NFL toddlers
That’s hardly an exaggeration. His top two tight ends? Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, both rookies. His WR corps of Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jaylen Reed, Bo Melton, Dontayvion Wicks, Samori Toure and Grant DuBose has 39 games of NFL experience and 88 catches between them. Unless there’s a bunch of prodigies in that group, things are going to get tough when Love needs a reliable target on third-and-long.
Houston Texans: They traded away future first and third round picks despite (gestures to previous three seasons)
The Texans finally got serious this offseason, hiring a head coach with actual 2023 credentials (apologies to Lovie Smith and David Culley, but no) and cashing in their draft assets to secure the second and third overall picks. They got CJ Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. in the process, who are both very good.
But both are rookies presiding over a roster with limited veteran talent. It’s not a stretch to envision another trying season — and if that results in a fourth-straight top three pick, it’s going to throw a wrench in DeMeco Ryans’ rebuild.
Indianapolis Colts: Josh Allen might be the only guy who can follow the Josh Allen blueprint
Remember the “Josh Allen apology form” that trended on Twitter a while back? That was a whole thing because, historically, Allen’s lack of accuracy and production was a harbinger of bad things to come in the NFL.
Anthony Richardson is on a similar track, an exceptional, massive athlete with a space shuttle arm but struggles at a higher profile program than Allen’s Wyoming Cowboys. Can the Colts turn it around? And if they do, how long will it take and who else will they need to add to the roster?
Jacksonville Jaguars: That's how you follow up 2022's breakthrough?
The Jags made big splashes in 2022 to prop up a run to the AFC’s Divisional Round. They spent big on Christian Kirk, hired Doug Pederson and drafted Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd in the first round to overhaul their defense (those first two worked out great, time will tell on the third).
To follow up on that, they added … a solid tackle prospect, a mid-tier tight end and a running back to round out their haul on the first two days. What about cornerback help? Another edge rusher? Sure, these guys all fill needs … it’s just a little boring is all. I wanted to see the Jacksonville hype train fire up to unsafe speeds this spring; instead, it’ll merely chug along steadily.
Kansas City Chiefs: Will a receiving corps filled with supporting actors keep this offense rolling?
The Chiefs didn’t have much chance to draft a wideout in the first round; a run in the early 20s meant the first tier of receivers was depleted by the time the 31st pick rolled around. Instead they landed on Rashee Rice in the second round despite the presence of pass catchers like Josh Downs, Jalin Hyatt, Marvin Mims and Cedric Tillman on the list of available players.
Rice is an explosive playmaker with a history of inconsistent performances — sort of like Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore, two other young players currently on the roster. With JuJu Smith-Schuster a Patriot, who’s gonna step up and be this team’s top receiving target?
Las Vegas Raiders: No secondary help until the fourth round?
Los Angeles Chargers: Daiyan Henley better not miss a tackle
Henley was a great value pickup in the third round — in fact, the Chargers had a wonderful draft in general. But LA’s rush defense ranked 29th in overall DVOA in 2022 even after some offseason signings designed to fortify it against the run. Henley and a 31-year-old Eric Kendricks are the latest solution to that problem. If they’re not enough opponents will be able to grind this team down late in games and keep the ball out of Justin Herbert’s hands.
Los Angeles Rams: Quantity is not quality
14 picks! That’s great! But only one came before the 77th pick, which is less great. Les Snead has drafted only two Pro Bowlers after round three in 12 seasons at the helm — kicker Greg Zuerlein and special teamer Pharoh Cooper.
Miami Dolphins: These guys better be good, because there's only four of them
Miami invested heavily in veterans thanks in part to Tua Tagovailoa’s inexpensive contract; its 2023 pick bank was depleted thanks to deals for Bradley Chubb, Jalen Ramsey, Jeff Wilson and Tyreek Hill. So while Devon Achane is cable-fiber fast and Cam Smith is a vicious lockdown corner who’d been undervalued, they’d better pay off or else there’s a decent chance the Dolphins don’t get a single rising, low-cost contributor from this year’s draft — and we’ve seen how a string of those can hamstring a franchise (what’s up, Rams).
Minnesota Vikings: Who here is gonna get the Vikings out of purgatory?
Jordan Addison is a great pickup and valuable running mate next to Justin Jefferson. But Kirk Cousins remains quarterback and coming off a season with the lowest passer rating of his career as a starter. The defense that ranked 27th in overall DVOA last season only looks marginally better on paper. This is a 13-win team that needed reinforcements like it was a seven-win squad. Instead, it got six picks — just one of which came in the top 100 selections.
New England Patriots: They traded up for a kicker who missed one in four field goals at Eastern Michigan
Nick Folk has been a pleasant addition in New England, but he’s 38 years old and leg strength has never been his selling point (though he’s 12 of 17 from 50-plus yards as a Patriot). That led Bill Belichick to move up in the fourth round for his second drafted kicker in four years.
But Chad Ryland doesn’t exactly have a fourth round pedigree. He was only a second-team All-Big Ten honoree last year and connected on only 10 of his 14 kicks from 40-plus yards out. He had a four-game stretch early in Big Ten play where he missed a field goal each week — all of which came from at least 45 yards away. Given how poorly the last drafted kicker worked out (Justin Rohrwasser, zero career NFL stats) it’s fair to be at least slightly concerned about Ryland.
New Orleans Saints: OK, so you can win the NFC South. Then what?
Bringing a bunch of win-now prospects into the fold will help a sorta-bad Saints team improve, just like giving Derek Carr a $150 million contract will as well. That can win the NFC South, but it’s not going to be enough to push this team to sustainable postseason success — especially with -$54 million in projected salary cap space coming up in 2024. New Orleans drafted players who can maintain the status quo, fight for a division title and fend off any rebuild — all at the cost of threatening no one come the playoffs.
New York Giants: Can this WR corps be trusted to keep Daniel Jones from turning back into a pumpkin?
Jones dramatically sliced his turnover rate in 2022 because he wasn’t asked to do too much. His average throw distance fell to a career-low 6.4 yards (second-lowest in the NFL) and the Giants went from running the ball roughly 40 percent of the time to a 50/50 split. That was a smart fix, but it’s unlikely to be permanent. Jones needs to prove he can make big throws to make New York a legitimate threat to upend the NFC.
2023’s draft board kept the team from adding a stud first round wideout. Jalin Hyatt was a great pickup, but there’s going to be whiplash going from Tennessee’s wide-spread, air-it-out offense to Brian Daboll’s more conservative approach. Can he rise up to lead a WR corps that also features Darius Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson, Parris Campbell and Isaiah Hodgins?
New York Jets: Everything hinges on a 40-year-old quarterback coming off his worst season
New York had a solid, common sense draft and the understanding that average quarterback play could be the difference between a playoff bid and a high draft pick (this is the Zach Wilson effect). So it traded for a four-time MVP who happens to have been the league’s 20th-ranked starting passer last season.
Granted, that was as part of a depleted Packers offense, but as strong a bet as backing Aaron Rodgers is it still remains a gamble — especially with his play-extending scrambling on the decline and legitimate question marks at both tackle positions.
Philadelphia Eagles: Perhaps doubling down on the UGA-heavy portfolio was a mistake
Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith are both studs … but so were Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean. Davis played a limited role in stacked defensive front and Dean, after sliding down draft boards due to injury concerns, played in all 17 games but just three percent of Philly’s defensive snaps. That Bulldog pedigree is great, but it’s no guarantee — especially for a top three prospect who fell due to off-field concerns (Davis) and a ridiculous athlete who’s undersized as a pass rusher and whose collegiate season high for sacks was 4.5.
(that said, yeah, it’s a pretty great draft class and this is at least a little grasp-at-strawsy)
Pittsburgh Steelers: That might not be enough to upgrade Kenny Pickett to "trustable"
The leap from “capable of winning records” to “genuinely good” begins and ends with Pickett. The Steelers took a balanced approach to this year’s draft and added talent on both sides of the ball. But blocking help may not fix a quarterback whose 72.1 percent on-target throw rate ranked 26th among 33 qualified starters. It also may not be enough to spring Najee Harris, who has averaged fewer than four yards per carry in his NFL career and who net a league-worst -81 rushing yards over expected in 2022.
San Francisco 49ers: They had no picks before No. 99 (and used No. 101 on a kicker)
I get it; Robbie Gould was almost automatic and his departure leaves a big void to be filled. Without many glaring holes, San Francisco used one of three compensatory third round picks to bring in a kicker.
But spending a third-rounder on a kicker is a rough sled. It’s only happened three other times since Sebastian Janikowski was a first round pick in 2000. Sometimes that gets you Nate Kaeding (a two-time All-Pro who made 53 percent of his kicks in the postseason) and sometimes it brings Roberto Aguayo (one season in the NFL, 4-11 on kicks longer than 40 yards).
Seattle Seahawks: Another second round running back?
Pete Carroll announced his intention to throw the ball by selecting Jaxon Smith-Njigba with his second first round pick. Then he doubled back on his run game by drafting Zach Charbonnet in the second — one year after taking Kenneth Walker II (1,050 rushing yards, nine touchdowns as a rookie) in a similar spot. Seattle could have beefed up a lagging defensive line with guys like Gervon Dexter, Byron Young or Zacch Pickens. Instead it reinforced a strength and left opposing offenses with something to strike at.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Great picks that will not matter (in 2023)
There’s nothing wrong with bolstering both sides of the line this spring. Calijah Kancey, Cody Mauch and YaYa Diaby were great, high-upside picks. But that’s not going to matter in 2023 when your starting quarterbacks are Kyle Trask and the ghost of Baker Mayfield. Tampa Bay’s best case scenario is that those rookies thrive and this team still loses enough games to select a top five quarterback in next year’s draft.
Tennessee Titans: Will Levis might not be the guy (also, didn't we just do this?)
The Titans stand up on Day 2 to draft a player with first round buzz to be their quarterback of the future. This sentence describes both 2023 AND 2022. Malik Willis looked decidedly like “not the guy” in limited reps last year, but a litany of teams passing on Levis suggest he could be steeped in the same hot water. His closest comps at this point look like Drew Lock and Paxton Lynch — and probably some other guys who *didn’t* get drafted by the Denver Broncos.
Washington Commanders: Their top overall pick weighs less than most dads
Emmanuel Forbes is an electric playmaker. He’s also 6-foot-1 and weighs 166 pounds. Only two defensive players took the field listed at 170 pounds or fewer last season — Cordale Flott and Isaiah Rodgers. Neither played more than 40 percent of their team’s snaps and each gave up a passer rating of at least 96.4 in coverage.
