The sharp move in oil since early February, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has created one of the clearest macro-driven divergences in the market. In just a few weeks, Brent crude has surged around 60% to roughly $110 per barrel, while sectors exposed to fuel costs have taken a significant hit.
At the center of that trade sits American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ: AAL), currently trading just under $11 and down around 30% from early February alone. On the other side is Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM), which was up 50% year to date as March closed. It’s still holding onto gains, but has pulled back over 10% in recent sessions as hopes of a resolution have begun to emerge.
