Thirty two teams have their sights set on a Super Bowl victory come February. Thirty one teams will have that dream smashed to various degrees.
This means, of course, that just under 97 percent of the league’s franchises will ultimately know heartbreak this winter. It’s significantly easier to lose an NFL title than to win it. Some teams already have their blueprint for failure laid out, using it as their vehicle to a high draft pick in a rebuilding era. Others aren’t even considering the possibility, keeping their vision solely on a Lombardi Trophy that odds suggest they won’t be holding at the end of the season.
Teams in the latter category have spent the last six months reflecting on their rosters and doing their damnedest to fix any flaws that could ultimately become fatal. Some clubs have hidden their weaknesses well enough that pointing them out feels like nitpicking. Others, well, they’ll have to cover up their problems with a fine layer of paint and duct tape and hope things don’t fall apart too thoroughly.
Let’s talk about those flaws today, from the obvious to the potentially obscure. Here’s the reason why all 32 NFL teams won’t win Super Bowl 58.
Arizona Cardinals: General lack of talent
The Cardinals aren’t designed to win in 2023. They’re meant to ease Kyler Murray back into the lineup, get a better understanding of which contributors can build the team up in the future, and bide their time before what promises to be a pair of top 10 draft selections in 2024 — their own and the one the Houston Texans traded away in April.
Their top two pass rushers from last year’s 24th-ranked defense are gone. The top wide receiver behind Hollywood Brown is Greg Dortch, who has 55 career receptions in three NFL seasons. Things won’t go well, but they aren’t supposed to.
Atlanta Falcons: Unproven quarterback play, defensive depth
Head coach Arthur Smith has devised a system to relieve the pressure from second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder’s shoulders. He’s surrounded by young targets with absurd catch radii (Kyle Pitts, Drake London) and running backs who can carry the offense for stretches (Tyler Allgeier, Bijan Robinson, Cordarrelle Patterson). But Ridder is going to have to show off NFL composure and playmaking to bring his team back from deficits — something that could happen often thanks to a thin defensive depth chart that may wind up relying heavily on former big names other teams discarded (Bud Dupree and Jeff Okudah, for example).
Baltimore Ravens: The passing defense
Marlon Humphrey is great, but he’ll miss the early stages of the season due to a foot injury and the cornerback rotation behind him may fall to Rock Ya-Sin, Arthur Maulet and Jalyn Armour-Davis — not exactly a lineup you’d trust in man coverage. Those good-not-great corners could be further tested thanks to a pass rush that will rely heavily on highly touted but unexperienced prospects like David Ojabo and Owafe Oweh or uneven veterans like Jadeveon Clowney and Tyus Bowser (four sacks between them in 2022). The Ravens defense ranked 11th against the pass last season; that number could slip in 2023.
Buffalo Bills: Receiving depth
Stefon Diggs may bear the weight of his passing offense once again after the Bills failed to add significant talent at wideout. First round tight end Dalton Kincaid could help, but the learning curve at his position is steep and could limit his impact in year one. In Buffalo’s last two playoff losses, Diggs had 16 targets but just seven catches for 42 yards. Without anyone else to carry the load, opponents may invest all their skill points in stopping him and daring someone else to step up.
Carolina Panthers: Offensive line play and wideout talent
Bryce Young’s adjustment from Saturdays to Sundays may rest heavily on his supporting cast. That means a receiving corps without a clear WR1 and an offensive line that’s struggled to clear space for him throughout the preseason. Adam Thielen and DJ Chark are nice complementary pieces, but could be Young’s top two targets this fall. Ikem Ekwonu’s disappointing camp has cast doubt on his ability to be a foundational left tackle and there are few standouts around him after to paper over those flaws. The former Heisman Trophy winner will have flashes of brilliance, but it may not amount to many wins in 2023.
Chicago Bears: Too many unprovens
Justin Fields is primed to make the leap from fantasy football stud to real life hero, but the Bears will be relying on several unknowns. How will D.J. Moore fit into the lineup and can Chase Claypool prove worthy of being traded for the 32nd overall pick? Are Darnell Wright and Nate Davis enough to improve an offensive line that allowed Fields to be sacked on nearly 15 percent of his dropbacks? Has enough work been put into a defense that ranked 32nd in overall DVOA last fall? There’s too much work to be done to clean this mess up in one offseason.
Cincinnati Bengals: Rebuilt young secondary
The Bengals are replacing both their starting safeties (which is bad) and also Eli Apple (… less bad) and hoping Chidobe Awuzie can not only return from a torn ACL but reclaim the borderline elite form he’d showcased early in 2022. A handful of recent highly touted draft picks are there to replace them, including Dax Hill, Cam Taylor-Britt and DJ Turner II. They’ll be asked to carry a heavy load against a conference stacked with impact quarterbacks, and any struggles could force Joe Burrow into more shootouts than he’d like.
Cleveland Browns: Perpetually less than the sum of their parts
Deshaun Watson — for whom the Browns traded three first-round picks and then handed a gargantuan fully-guaranteed contract despite more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the league itself described as “predatory behavior” — played six games last season and wasn’t even a top-30 quarterback. A defense with young studs like Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward ranked 23rd in overall DVOA. On paper this should be a good team; in execution, it looks like a tough bet to go over its 9.5-game win total.
Dallas Cowboys: Mike McCarthy
The pieces are in place for a long playoff run. But Dallas will be relying on an embatted head coach who’s gone 6-8 in the postseason since winning a Super Bowl with the Green Bay Packers in 2011 — and his only win since 2016 came against an overmatched Tampa Bay Buccaneers team who won the NFC South with an 8-9 record. McCarthy’s strategies and clock management are occasionally baffling. While there’s no doubt about his ability to win in the regular season, he still has to prove he can make the necessary adjustments to sustain a long run through the postseason.
Denver Broncos: Russell Wilson, still broken?
Sean Payton knows how to ease a superstar quarterback into the twilight of his career. He did so with Drew Brees, keeping the Saints a playoff contender despite the veteran’s waning arm strength. But that’s not the case with Wilson, who is only 34-years-old and showcased solid downfield skills in stretches throughout 2022’s lost season.
His 39 percent deep ball completion rate was roughly in line with his career average. So how is Payton going to fix a player whose mobility dropped (55 sacks in 2022) while his accuracy and read ability fell with it? An improved offensive line will help, but if Wilson’s game is relegated to the short targets that defined the latter stages of the Brees era, then Denver’s ceiling stops at “playoff team” instead of “Super Bowl contender.”
Detroit Lions: Defense needs to make *the leap*
The Lions added Aiden Hutchinson and Kerby Joseph to a broken defense and rose from 29th in DVOA to 28th. This year they’ve brought in C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Cameron Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley, Jack Campbell and Brian Branch to fix things.
There’s no doubt this unit will be better than the one that gave up more yards than anyone in the NFL, but asking this group of newcomers to transform a defense from “awful” to “elite” is a big ask. The Lions gave up at least 24 points in 10 games last season and went 2-8 in those games with the wins coming against the Bears and Commanders. While Ben Johnson’s offense is good, it’s not quite able to outdraw opponents in a shootout yet.
Green Bay Packers: QB/receiving corps made up of NFL toddlers
Jordan Love has 606 career NFL passing yards. His top wide receiver, Christian Watson, has 611 career receiving yards. No. 2 on that list is Romeo Doubs, who has 425 yards to his credit. Two of the team’s top three tight ends are rookies and the third, Josiah Deguara, has 39 career receptions. 2023 is going to ask a lot of players who, by their powers combined, have fewer total receiving yards than Cooper Kupp did in 2021.
Houston Texans: General Texans-ness
Hiring DeMeco Ryans was a signal this team is finally serious about rebuilding; trading a future first-round pick to secure pass rusher Will Anderson at this year’s draft doubled down on that effort. But make no mistake, 2023 will be a rough sled for a team with a rookie quarterback (and/or Davis Mills), low-wattage receiving corps and young, thin defense that ranked 22nd in overall efficiency last season. This year isn’t about contention, it’s about building a foundation.
Indianapolis Colts: Rookie QB with unproven support system
Anthony Richardson is an unmoored Civil War cannon, capable of glorious destruction both for and against his own team. He’ll need help to reach his potential as a franchise quarterback, but his receiving corps coming into his rookie season is led by Michael Pittman Jr. (6.6 yards per target in 2022, 99th best among wideouts), Alec Pierce (41 catches as a rookie) and Isaiah McKenzie.
That group will improve with an offense capable of taking more — and better quality — shots downfield, but what Richardson could really use is a bellwether tailback who can move the chains, reduce congestion in the secondary and reduce the weight from his shoulders. At the moment that appears to be either Zack Moss or Evan Hull, since team owner Jim Irsay seems intent on alienating Jonathan Taylor whenever possible.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Finishing defensive plays
The Jaguars’ pass rush pressure rate was 25.1 percent — fourth-best in the NFL. Their 35 sacks, however, were tied for seventh-worst last season. They led the league in passes defensed, but ranked only 16th in interception rate. There’s undeniable talent on the defensive side of the ball, but converting talent into production was a problem for a unit that ranked 26th in total defensive DVOA last season.
Kansas City Chiefs: Rebuilt young secondary (and wideout depth)
Oh hey, it’s half of the same problem the Cincinnati Bengals — the team Kansas City has hosted in each of the last two AFC title games — faces in 2023. Major roles will be filled by 2022 draftees Bryan Cook (30 percent defensive snap share as a rookie), Jaylen Watson (53 percent) and Trent McDuffie (59 percent).
Those guys are all capable of shining (it’s the Chiefs, so we have to nitpick a little). On the other side of the ball, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the team’s most accomplished wideout. That’s going to lead to a lot of double teams for a 34-year-old Travis Kelce, who theoretically has to slow down at some point.
Las Vegas Raiders: A caretaker QB in a new environment
Jimmy Garoppolo won a buttload of games with the 49ers not because of a sterling deep ball, but because of a talented cast of playmakers who consistently led the league in team yards-after-catch and a defense capable of limiting the damage following his quarterly doofus throws to nowhere. The Raiders can’t fully replicate either of these things.
Throwing to Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Jakobi Meyers should keep his short-range passing intact, albeit without the dynamic post-catch runs of players like Deebo Samuel or George Kittle. Behind them stands 2022’s 31st-ranked defense. Oh, and Garoppolo may be more injured than he lets on and Josh Jacobs, 2022’s rushing leader, is in the middle of a holdout.
Los Angeles Chargers: Whatever complete nonsense the football gods throw their way
This team should be very good. The Chargers have a rising young quarterback, a cupboard stocked with playmakers and a defense tinged with stars. Justin Herbert’s offensive line is healthy again and new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has the chops to unlock his downfield prowess.
But it’s the Chargers. Something cursed and monumentally stupid is always lingering around the corner. Will J.C. Jackson prove to be a free agent bust? Will Derwin James or Rashawn Slater have All-Pro caliber seasons cut down by injury again? Will the Mon-stars steal Khalil Mack’s talent? I don’t know, but it always feels as though Los Angeles is continually operating with a never-ending supply of anvils dangling over its head.
Los Angeles Rams: A hollowed out defense (and iffy offensive line)
Only two players who started at least 10 games for last year’s defense return — Aaron Donald and Ernest Jones. Thirty seven of the 90 players on the team’s preseason roster — 41 percent! — are rookies, only one of whom was drafted before the 77th pick.
Additionally, Rams’ quarterbacks were sacked on 10 percent of their dropbacks last season, and while rookie Steve Avila can help (the lone prospect drafted before pick No. 77), there’s still plenty of work to be done. Getting everyone healthy again is a big step in the right direction, but there are no guarantees it’ll be enough.
Miami Dolphins: Keeping Tua Tagovailoa healthy
I’m on board the Tua train; he was one of the league’s most efficient quarterbacks in 2022 and still gets to lob passes to Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, after all. But that season was cut short by multiple head injuries that threw his future into question. Now he returns at something resembling full strength, but the offensive line in front of him provides its own questions.
Will Terron Armstead be 100 percent after a preseason injury? Is fellow tackle Austin Johnson capable of fulfilling his first-round draft pick potential? Will the interior of the line clear enough space to facilitate a running game and provide the breathing room that keeps defenses from suffocating Tagovailoa’s passing game?
Minnesota Vikings: A declining (?) Kirk Cousins
Cousins has a new toy to play with in rookie first-round pick Jordan Addison. The Pitt, then USC star is capable of thriving in the single coverage Justin Jefferson creates for him. But, it’s reasonable to ask if Cousins’ 2022 backslide was the beginning of a trend for a 35-year-old quarterback coming off his least efficient season as a starter.
His deep ball IQR, a metric developed by Sports Information Solutions to measure a passer’s impact independent of outside factors, fell from 87 to 65 — 25th best among qualified QBs last season and one spot behind Garoppolo. Cousins’ legacy has been as a player whose stats outshined his postseason success; now those numbers are fading and could draw the curtain on his time in Minnesota.
New England Patriots: The passing attack
Mac Jones regressed hard as a second-year NFL quarterback. He also wasn’t given many opportunities for success, with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge serving as the team’s top two offensive assistants and a lackluster receiving corps around him.
Bill O’Brien arrived to fix the former problem, but the latter remains. Jakobi Meyers has been swapped out for JuJu Smith-Schuster, but the wideouts behind him — DeVante Parker, Tyquan Thornton, Kendrick Bourne and Day 3 draft picks Kayshon Boutte and Demario Douglas — remain a motley crew of inconsistent performers. Even if Jones can reclaim his rookie form, New England may need more from him to stay afloat in a deep and dangerous AFC East.
New Orleans Saints: Aging stars on a top-heavy roster
The Saints have an opportunity to win in a weak NFC South. Getting there will hinge on several big name veterans who bring their own baggage into 2023.
Derek Carr will have to prove he can still be an effective quarterback outside the Raiders’ organization. Michael Thomas has to stay healthy. Alvin Kamara will sit out a three-game suspension for his role in an assault investigation and is coming off a two-year stretch in which he’s averaged fewer than four yards per carry. A top-10 defense will need aging stars like Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis and Tyrann Mathieu to continue playing at a high level in their 30s. And if things go wrong, a shallow depth chart could prove disastrous.
New York Giants: Downfield passing
Brian Daboll worked with what he was given and turned Daniel Jones into a $40 million quarterback through a run-heavy offense featuring plenty of short, high percentage targets for his QB — his average target distance of 6.4 yards downfield was second-lowest in the NFL. This worked until it didn’t.
Jones had to dial up his downfield distance in a playoff loss to the Eagles (7.9 yards) and promptly fell on his face, needing 27 passes to throw for 135 yards in a 38-7 loss. This problem could persist in 2023 thanks to a receiving corps that’s gotten deeper but will still rely on a cache of players better off as depth options than WR1 types — namely Darius Slayton, Parris Campbell, Sterling Shepard, Isaiah Hodges and Wan’Dale Robinson.
New York Jets: Aaron Rodgers' protection
Rodgers no longer has the wheels that kept plays alive and allowed him to access the magic in his arm; his 13 scrambles in 2022 were a career low, per Pro Football Reference. He’s now going from the league’s best pass protection unit to one that ranked 24th last season. Getting Mekhi Becton back to full strength would be a boon, but he’s no sure thing. Same goes for a 38-year-old Duane Brown or backups Max Mitchell and Billy Turner. If Rodgers isn’t given space, he may finally look like a 40-year-old quarterback.
Philadelphia Eagles: Over-the-top safety help
Gardner-Johnson is a Lion. Marcus Epps is a Raider. That leaves the team’s starting safety spots to 2022 undrafted free agent Reed Blankenship, former Steeler Terrell Edmunds (who allowed a 116.2 passer rating in coverage last season) and third-round rookie Sydney Brown (who, if we’re being honest, is fun as hell to watch). Fortunately, Darius Slay and James Bradberry are studs, so that over-the-top help won’t loom as large as it could have, but there’s reason for concern amidst a stacked roster from the defensive NFC champions.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Pickett's lack of fireworks
Pittsburgh again seems primed to boast a solid defense and roll toward yet another winning season under Mike Tomlin. The fly in the ointment may be Pickett, the second-year quarterback who went 7-5 as a rookie starter but generally underwhelmed in the passing game.
Pickett threw only seven touchdowns in 13 appearances (against nine interceptions) and mostly struggled in the intermediate range; he was the second-worst player in the league when it came to throws between 11 and 20 yards downfield, per SIS. Pickett only threw for 200-plus yards four times last year and has yet to record a game with multiple passing touchdowns as a pro. He’ll get help from a revamped offensive line and a productive receiving corps, but he has to be better if the Steelers are going to scare any of the AFC’s contenders.
San Francisco 49ers: Low wattage quarterbacking (again)
There’s a reason why the 49ers were willing to trade three first round picks to take a chance on Trey Lance; Kyle Shanahan’s offense works in the right circumstances, but lacks a vertical dimension that could truly unlock its potential. That gamble failed, leaving the reins to 2022 Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy.
Purdy is a fast-processing and efficient quarterback, but his deep strikes tend to float and were few and far between as a rookie. Only 30 percent of his throws last season traveled more than 10 yards downfield and his 6.6 air yards per throw wouldn’t crack the top 30 among last year’s starting quarterbacks. This has limited the Niners’ comeback efforts and created problems when the team is forced to play off-schedule — and could again be an issue if Purdy’s growth was stunted by last winter’s UCL injury.
Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith's 2022 late-season slide
Smith’s emergence as an upper tier, full-time quarterback at age 32 was inspiring. While he finished the season as one of the league’s top 10 most efficient passers (seventh, per RBSDM.com), his solid numbers gloss over the fact his effectiveness waned as the season wore on.
Smith began the year with a 107.2 passer rating in Seattle’s 6-3 start and wound up with a 94.7 rating in the team’s 3-5 finish. He ranked seventh among starting QBs in expected points added (EPA) per play in that hot start to 19th in his final nine games, including a Wild Card loss against the 49ers. Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s presence will help, but it’s possible opposing defenses have learned how to contain Smith.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (Gestures broadly)
Oh, this is a mess. But maybe Caleb Williams can fix it. Assuming neither Baker Mayfield nor Kyle Trask emerge as franchise quarterbacks, of course.
Tennessee Titans: Mike Vrabel's blueprint may no longer be viable
The Titans’ resurgence at the end of the 2010s followed a simple plan; efficient passing, clock-grinding and inevitable running gains and an occasionally stout defense. The 2023 season might not have any of those things.
Ryan Tannehill has failed to regain the eye-opening form of his first two seasons in Nashville. Derrick Henry’s 0.26 rush yards over expected (RYOE) per carry were a rebound from an injury shortened 2021 but still significantly lower than his 2020 RYOE (0.96 per handoff). And, importantly, a 28th-ranked passing defense added little in the way of reliable coverage help. Tennessee may have passed the AFC South’s torch to the Jacksonville Jaguars for longer than Vrabel hoped.
Washington Commanders: Sam Howell has to outrun history
Howell, who’ll start in front of Jacoby Brissett this season, was drafted in the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. These are the other fifth-round quarterbacks who’ve been drafted since 2015: Jake Fromm, Easton Stick, Clayton Thorson, Mike White, Nathan Peterman, Kevin Hogan and Brett Hundley.
Granted, Howell was once regarded as a Day 1 selection before backsliding in his final year at North Carolina, but that’s grim company to keep when your best case scenario is Mike White.
