282 NFL games have been played this season. Three remain, along with four teams with dreams of a Super Bowl 58 victory still intact.
That means the winter will conclude with disappointment for 75 percent of the teams still in the hunt for the Vince Lombardi Trophy. With 20 weeks of regular season and playoff data from which to work, we have a reasonable idea of how things might end.
All of our final four teams — the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers — have flaws that could finish their seasons, loose strings that could unravel everything for which they’ve worked. In some cases, it’s clear. In others it takes a little digging to find.
Let’s talk about these flaws, moving from least serious to most.
4
Baltimore Ravens: A defense that can be vulnerable late
This is a tough one. The Ravens rank sixth in offensive efficiency and may have All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews back in their lineup for the AFC title game. They rank second in defensive efficiency. Their quarterback is the presumptive MVP and their kicker has hit the point in his career where it’s shocking if he misses from 55-plus yards.
They’ve beaten the two remaining teams on the NFC side of the bracket in regular season routs. They’ve given up more than 300 passing yards just once this season, and it was in one of those blowouts (against the San Francisco 49ers). They haven’t lost a game in which most of their starters played since before Thanksgiving.
There are few cracks, but one that could be particularly troubling against a Kansas City team that’s made fourth quarter comebacks a staple of its playoff success. All three of Baltimore’s legitimate losses this year came after holding fourth quarter leads:
- three points with one minute to play vs. the Indianapolis Colts (lost 22-19 in overtime)
- two points with two minutes to play vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers (lost 17-10)
- 14 points with nine minutes to play vs. the Cleveland Browns (lost 33-31)
In those three games, the Ravens were outscored 36-12 in the final frame. Granted, you can’t blow fourth quarter leads without taking them in the first place, so this is a minor flaw from a team that’s 14-3 in games it cares about. Even so, these come-from-ahead losses came against teams with significantly worse quarterbacks than Patrick Mahomes. It’s fair to be worried if Baltimore’s up 21-17 with five minutes to play and punting the ball back to the Chiefs in the AFC title game.
3
San Francisco 49ers: Lingering questions about Brock Purdy's seaworthiness
Cards on the table; Purdy led the 49ers to a win after trailing by more than four points in the fourth quarter for the first time in the Kyle Shanahan era. When his offense needed him the most, he adhered to the road map laid out for him and never veered off course.
Plus, this touchdown pass was (chef’s kiss).
KITTLE OVER THE MIDDLE. #GBvsSF on FOX
📱 NFL+ // https://t.co/KTh0i4oaLh pic.twitter.com/0ePKDPeazc— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) January 21, 2024
It doesn’t mean there isn’t reason for concern regarding the second-year passer who could be without one of the impact players who helped guide his rise to Pro Bowl quarterback. Deebo Samuel will be, at the very least, playing hurt in the NFC title game. He may not play at all. Jauan Jennings is a useful replacement, but when opponents know he’s going to be a featured part of the offense his efficiency dips, making him a solid WR3 and a lesser WR2.
Purdy overcame this in the divisional round thanks to a few great throws, a few lucky drops and the brilliance of Christian McCaffrey. The All-Pro running back roasted the league’s 23rd-ranked rush defense and should thrive against the Detroit Lions’ 21st-ranked unit. But after that either the Ravens (No. 2 run D) or the Chiefs (No. 6) await, reducing the capacity for the ground game to make life easier through the air. The pressure will be on a young quarterback with a penchant for brain fart throws to play precise, nearly perfect football.
So, you know, none of this:
Savage drop píck 6. Purdy isnt looking good. pic.twitter.com/75S7hEZkBl
— FootballSZN (@FtballSZN) January 21, 2024
2
Detroit Lions: The secondary is still all slopped up
Brian Branch’s impact as a rookie safety has been palpable. Unfortunately, the Lions’ other offseason additions in the secondary haven’t been as promising.
Cameron Sutton has allowed a 112.3 passer rating in coverage this season, notching just one interception and six passes defensed against five touchdowns allowed in 91 targets. Emmanuel Moseley played just two snaps in 2023. Tracy Walker, re-signed in 2022, has added little consistent help in over-the-top coverage and Kerby Joseph is still growing into his role as a boom-or-bust safety.
This hasn’t mattered in the postseason thus far because the Detroit offense has scored enough to create, then hang on to, early leads. But that came against two bottom-half defenses in the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now only top 10 units await and there’s no guarantee the Lions can put up 24-plus points from here.
The issue with the Lions’ secondary isn’t that it will get crushed by one singular wideout, but by a combination of them. In Detroit’s five losses it gave up at least 130 receiving yards and a touchdown to combinations like:
- DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett (134 yards, two TDs)
- Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews (138 yards, two TDs)
- Christian Watson and Malik Heath (!) (140 yards, one TD)
- DJ Moore and Cole Kmet (138 yards, one TD)
- CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks (287 yards, two TDs) (!!!)
There’s room to get worked downfield and now a pair of two-time MVP quarterbacks (assuming Jackson wins in 2023, which he almost certainly will) and the regular season’s most efficient passer await. This could be a rough scene for the Lions’ cornerbacks.
1
Kansas City Chiefs: Their receiving corps remain paper thin and the run defense can be gotten to
Here’s a problem: the Chiefs have one wide receiver who had more than 27 receptions this season and he’s working through a minor hamstring injury. Their 44 regular season drops were the most in the league and have seven more through two playoff games. They’re also about to face the secondary that led the NFL in passer rating allowed (74.7). Travis Kelce may feast, or he may be limited by a defense that finished the year tied for second place when it came to fewest touchdown passes allowed to tight ends (three).
But let’s assume Kelce, Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco thrive against the league’s No. 2 defense. That may not be enough to punch another Super Bowl ticket.
The Chiefs have a run defense that can be gashed. Kansas City held up against the Miami Dolphins’ potent ground attack, but were aided by the fact Miami trailed most of the game and only handed the ball off 15 times. One week later, Josh Allen, James Cook and Ty Johnson combined for 173 yards on the ground. As a result, the Chiefs rank third among playoff teams in EPA allowed on dropbacks and just 10th when it comes to rushing plays.
It gets worse. Both Buffalo’s rushing touchdowns came from Allen, one of the most dynamic dual-threat passers in the game. His ground game chops are only exceeded by … Lamar Jackson, the guy Kansas City has to face Sunday afternoon.
