This weekend will see the start of a time-honored annual January tradition: The NFL playoffs. With the entire 14-team field set, we’ll soon know who is worthy of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl 57 in Arizona next month and who, well, should probably be trying harder in the NFL Draft.
The first stop on that winding postseason journey is Wild Card Weekend this Saturday, Sunday and Monday. And there’s an important question every team playing this weekend must consider and ask itself before potentially making it to the next round.
Take the Jaguars, for example.
They’re one of the brighter and younger teams in pro football. Will the face of the franchise in Trevor Lawrence shine or wilt under the playoff lights? In Baltimore, after the Ravens backed into the postseason — will Lamar Jackson even play, and do the Ravens even have a shot without him?
One thing’s for sure: The suspense of playoff football is terrible to some. I, meanwhile, hope it lasts. Let’s break down one burning question for every AFC Wild Card team (and check out our questions for the NFC side)
1
Miami Dolphins: Can Mike McDaniel rally his squad without Tua Tagovailoa?
By the literal skin of their teeth — a last-minute Jason Sanders field goal against an offensively-challenged Jets team — the Dolphins snuck into this year’s final postseason picture. But without a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, a.k.a. the quarterback who was formerly in the MVP conversation that had the Dolphins once sitting at 8-3, it’s hard to imagine the Dolphins go into Buffalo in frigid January and upset the rival Bills.
With Tagovailoa in the fold, in games he finished and started, the Dolphins averaged just about 24 points per matchup, as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle usually had their way with opposing defenses as top options. Without Tagovailoa, and with Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson filling in, Miami averaged a crisp 15 points a game. Hill and Waddle were still factors, but it was more about inferior QBs leaning on their safety valves at the expense of a diverse offense.
The Dolphins were able to push the Bills in both of their games this season, winning outright in the South Florida heat before coming up just short with snowflakes falling in Buffalo. Though that was with a healthy and capable Tagovailoa, who is still recovering from his second concussion suffered this season. Pro Football Talk has reported that Mike McDaniel won’t commit to playing Tagovailoa in the playoffs, leaving his status up in the air this weekend.
Anything can happen in the playoffs, so I wouldn’t rule out Thompson or Bridgewater pulling off the seemingly unfathomable entirely. But there’s a reason they’re the backups, and Tagovailoa is the starter. It’s hard to imagine the Bills losing to either. But if they do — don’t let McDaniel leave the field without the Coach of the Year Award.
2
Buffalo Bills: Can Josh Allen stay away from a game-changing mistake?
Fun fact: Josh Allen, the unquestioned second-best professional quarterback alive, finished the regular season tied for the second-most interceptions thrown (14). Some of this eye-opening penchant for mistakes was Allen entering hero-ball mode to compensate for an offense that lacks a genuinely reliable option outside of Stefon Diggs, which is understandable!
And some of it was just Allen inexplicably trying to test professional defenders — who get paid, too — like the gunslinger he is at heart:
WOAH – that Josh Allen interception was LITERALLY a Christmas gift. #bears #nfl #BillsMafia #buffalo #allen #Chiefs #buf #afc #throw pic.twitter.com/mtnNWjBnQb
— Matt Young (@MattYoungCTV) December 24, 2022
Did his controller get disconnected mid-throw? Did he not see a linebacker standing in the middle of the field? Does anyone know? I’m still thinking about this pick weeks later.
The Bills probably don’t have to worry about beating a potentially Tagovailoa-less Dolphins squad, and they probably don’t have to bring their A-game to do it. But in the event of a potentially close game (you never know in a divisional rivalry), it might be their best player in Allen who ironically keeps the door open for Miami. At the very least, if you’re Buffalo, you’re hoping for a walk-in-the-park game from your stud QB in a theoretical “gimme” game.
3
Baltimore Ravens: Will Lamar Jackson play?
The last time we saw Lamar Jackson throw a ball or run his patented QB Power for the Ravens, they were 8-4, leaders of the AFC North, and within screaming distance of a top-two seed in the AFC. Then Jackson suffered a PCL injury and hasn’t even practiced for about five weeks while the hated Bengals stormed to the division title.
Suffice it to say: John Harbaugh looks like he needs his talisman because he clearly doesn’t have the answers regarding the guy wearing the purple No. 8.
A time lapse of John Harbaugh discussing the Lamar Jackson situation over the last month pic.twitter.com/QjkziMCpxe
— Ronald Toothe (@_QuoththeRavens) January 5, 2023
Like Tagovailoa in Miami, no one in Baltimore seems really sure whether Jackson is ready to go. That’s a problem for a team and Greg Roman offense that arguably asks its quarterback to carry his teammates much more than most star signal-callers. The Ravens’ leading non-Mark Andrews receiver this year was Demarcus Robinson, who amassed a clearly monstrous 48 catches for 458 yards and two scores. Their leading rusher was … still Jackson (764 yards) despite him having played in only 12 games. (PAY THE MAN, you fools!)
An injury-riddled Baltimore going into the house of the defending AFC champions and leaving with a win was a longshot even with Jackson. Without him, I find it hard to believe the ghost of Sammy Watkins makes the Bengals’ defense sweat.
4
Cincinnati Bengals: How do they channel the energy of their playoff proposal "slight"?
I want to be clear that I fully agreed with the sacrifices every team made in the NFL’s original AFC playoff proposal/contingency plan. In the wake of Damar Hamlin’s collapse on the field, there was never going to be a perfect solution that made everyone happy after the canceled Bills-Bengals matchup.
That said, Cincinnati definitely drew the short straw, and it seemed like that (understandably!) bothered the organization to its core.
Zac Taylor: "Let us play 7 home games and 9 road games and then try to take a home playoff game away… that's what this team is built for."
Wooooooooooooooooooooo
— Mark Slaughter (@MarkVSlaughter) January 6, 2023
The Bengals eventually made the central portion of the proposal where they were involved irrelevant because their win outright over the Ravens on Sunday eliminated the prospects of a controversial coin toss to decide home-field advantage. But I have to think the locked-in No. 3 seed in the AFC is still stewing over the perception of the NFL “screwing” them over.
Cincinnati is more than capable of going on another long playoff run through the rest of this month. There might not be a true weakness for the arguably most complete team of anyone playing on Wild Card Weekend. From that perspective, the Bengals being their own worst enemy would be letting their emotions get the best of them with a terrible penalty or two in a clutch situation. If they’re already voicing their displeasure with “coin-flip” TD celebrations, they might be too far gone on this front.
The Bengals haven’t lost a football game since Halloween and are otherwise too talented across the board for a likely shorthanded Ravens squad to topple them.
5
Los Angeles Chargers: Will Joe Lombardi play it safe against a playmaking defense?
By now, it’s hard to argue that Justin Herbert is both the straw that stirs and the drink for the Chargers. The former top-six pick will be making his playoff debut against Jacksonville riding a wave of success in meaningful games. Thanks to Herbert’s sparkling, impeccably timed clutch play, L.A. won five of its last seven games to clinch a playoff spot, with the final matchup/defeat being a meaningless Week 18 bout against the Broncos.
The man who was derided as a “Social Media Quarterback” because he had the gaudy statistics, but not even one playoff appearance did everything for the Chargers when they needed him to in this regular season.
Herbert was their hero:
mike said throw it up to me, herbo@darealmike_dub | @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/mcya2K9pj6
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) December 19, 2022
What the Chargers have to ask themselves as their superstar quarterback tries to make it a fruitful January for the organization is whether they’re content on playing timid offense. Herbert’s average depth of target (aDOT) this year was 6.4, and his yards-per-pass attempt was 6.8. The former puts him in such illustrious company as washed-up Matt Ryan (6.03 aDOT), while the latter has Herbert hanging around with Mac Jones and Daniel Jones. I don’t think anyone in their right mind would or should be confusing Herbert’s natural abilities with that pair. This is decidedly not how you use a player of his caliber.
If offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi doesn’t let the dragon loose — there is little indication he would change what isn’t “broken” for a playoff team — the Jaguars’ defense has to be salivating. Jacksonville allowed just 22 total points and forced five turnovers over its last three games in a sterling close to the season. Josh Allen (the other Josh Allen) and Rayshawn Jenkins and Co. are arguably more of a galvanizing defensive catalyst for the Jaguars’ AFC South title than their Golden Boy quarterback.
A cyborg of a field processor, Herbert does not usually make a bevy of mistakes. But asking him to dink and dunk his way against an athletic unit starting to feel itself is playing with fire. You can’t execute 10-12 play-scoring drives all the time and expect that to last. Eventually, the explosive chunks must come in spades in a postseason matchup to keep up the pretenses of a dangerous offense. And the Chargers have the quarterback to do it! There is, quite literally, no excuse!
If those big plays don’t arrive, the more time you spend on the field, the more opportunity one check-down inevitably flips against your fortunes. Let me tell you: Having it happen in January instead of a mid-October regular season game hurts a lot more.
6
Jacksonville Jaguars: Is Trevor Lawrence ready to complete his ascent?
He’s been anointed the “Next Big Thing” since high school in Tennessee. When he declared for the 2021 NFL Draft, he was considered a quarterback prospect on the level of Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning. And now, in Year 2 of his professional football career, former No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence is set to make his postseason debut.
I have little doubt he’ll be a mainstay amongst the big dogs of the AFC in the years to come, but first playoff appearances can be a challenging gauntlet. Not every gifted young quarterback enjoys a lights-out performance when the prospect of win-or-go-home is on the table. Sometimes, the pressure gets to you before you’ve even had the chance to dip your toes in the water.
Take some of the playoff debuts of some of Lawrence’s peers into context:
- Kyler Murray in the NFC Wild Card Game last winter against the Rams: 19-of-34, 137 yards, and two interceptions
- Josh Allen in the AFC Wild Card Game against the Texans in 2020: 24-of-46 (less than 50 percent completed passes in a playoff game!), 264 yards
- Lamar Jackson in an AFC Wild Card Game in 2019 against the Chargers: 14-of-29, 194 yards, two touchdowns, one pick, and 54 rushing yards
Of course, football is not played in a vacuum, and every quarterback and their team’s roster situation is inherently different. I, for one, think Lawrence is in a more polished and comfortable spot — thanks mainly to Doug Pederson — than any of these big names were when they had to first try and win in January.
We don’t know how Lawrence will respond under the lights. (Frankly, we don’t know how the quarterback on the Chargers’ sideline will react, either.) But the Jaguars have a winnable game on the slate in front of what will likely be a raucous crowd in Jacksonville. They’ll probably be OK if Lawrence plays to his potential. And if it’s any comfort, here’s how another recent No. 1 overall pick — Joe Burrow for the Bengals — fared in his playoff debut against the Raiders last year:
24-of-34, 244 yards, and two touchdowns.
Win or not, that kind of clean sheet, point-guard performance from the most important person to the Jaguars would be what I’d call a successful first-playoff romp.
