Could Changes To The H-1B Visa Discourage Foreign Tech Talent From Settling in the U.S.?

Changes to the employer-sponsored visa program, experts say, could complicate the application process and potentially discourage eager talent from settling in the US.

"Overall application numbers [to the H-1B program] are projected to be significantly lower this year," said Danielle Goldman, the CEO of the Build Fellowship by Open Avenues, a cap-exempt H-1B visa fellowship for foreign talent.

"The political optics right now are clearly meant to signal that the U.S. is closing the door to international talent", she explained, cautioning that, however, optics can be misleading.

"Most of the legal pathways haven't disappeared; they've just become more complicated and less widely understood," she said. "For example, many employers assume the proposed $100,000 H-1B fee would apply to all of their hires, when in fact it currently only applies to individuals entering through consular processing from abroad."

Indeed, the fee only applies to individuals outside the U.S. at the time of application. Foreigners who are already legally in the U.S. and eligible for "Change of Status" – a process which allows people to change from the F-1, L-1 or TN visas to a H-1B visa – are exempt.

Companies who understand those pathways and are willing to pursue them, she said, will keep hiring globally at a moment when many of their competitors "have stepped back."

According to an analysis by Technically, bids for the visa lottery decreased nearly 30% between FY 2025 and 2026. Companies including Amazon, Tata Consultancy Services, Microsoft and Meta had the most H-1B visas approved last year.

Reaction from abroad to the visa shake-up

The leaders of some of America's largest companies got their start in the U.S. thanks to the

H-1B visa, including Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, Tesla's Elon Musk, and IBM CEO Arvind Krishna.

But with the U.S. experiencing negative net migration for the first time in 50 years, some fear the new rules may discourage eager tech talent from coming and contributing to the entrepreneurial ecosystem.

Jesus Buenafuente, Managing Director of the Silicon Valley office of Catalonia Trade & Investment, a public agency that helps startups from Spain's Catalonia region expand into the U.S., warned that the visa measures "risk discouraging talented [European] founders and early-stage companies that operate with limited resources" from expanding into the U.S.

He said that while the U.S. market remains the most attractive for startups, the H-1B visa changes have driven more of the founders his agency works with to look towards Europe and Latin America, "where they perceive it may be easier to establish a long-term presence."

Semyon Dukach, founding partner of One Way Ventures, a U.S.-based venture capital fund that supports immigrant founders, said that "shrinking the talent pool at a time when the United States is fighting for global dominance in AI, space, security and more seems like an objectively bad idea."

Long term, he said, the current crackdown could "damage" the United States' "reputation as a nation that welcomes foreigners who want to enrich the country in pursuit of the American Dream."

However, Dukach hopes that there will be an upside when it comes to the American public's perception of immigration: the new obstacles, he suggested, "may force citizens to recognize the incredible value of immigrant builders."

"Immigrants won't just stop coming to the United States, and the ones that overcome today's barriers will prove their unique resilience first by moving here, and then by achieving their goals on U.S. soil," he said. "So while the new regulations are tough and will keep many people from making the move to the United States, it may actually shift some attention away from fear and towards a greater appreciation of immigrants."