The Vikings’ move to the offensive-minded Kevin O’Connell last season brought many of the desired results for what turned into a 13-win team. Minnesota went from 14th in points and 12th in yards in 2021 to eighth and seventh, respectively.
But a closer examination of the numbers reveals why general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell were far from satisfied. In part because of a porous defense but also an inconsistent offense, the Vikings were outscored by a staggering 87 points in the first three quarters.
In the fourth quarter, the Vikings outscored opponents by 84 points as quarterback Kirk Cousins tied an NFL record by leading eight fourth-quarter comebacks.
You don’t have to be an analytics guru to know that formula isn’t sustainable, nor is it desired when planning for the season.
The Vikings will be far more of a threat than the team that was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by the Giants, if their offense can sustain drives for all four quarters and aren’t often looking at deficits that must be overcome with 15 minutes remaining.
There are some who believe the offseason subtractions of veterans such as running back Dalvin Cook and wide receiver Adam Thielen means the Vikings are hitting some type of reset button. That would be wrong.
What the Vikings are doing is moving on from highly-paid, aging veterans and turning to younger players who are better fits for what O’Connell wants to do from a scheme standpoint.
The Vikings surprised some when they signed free agent tight end Josh Oliver to a three-year, $21 million contract in March. The Vikings already had T.J. Hockenson and Oliver isn’t known as much of a receiving threat.
Oliver, however, proved to be a very capable receiver at San Jose State and his combination of skills will enable the Vikings to use 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) more frequently. Last season, the Vikings used 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end) 76.3 percent of the time, according to Next Gen Stats.
This is being done largely so O’Connell can find ways to get Pro Bowl wide receiver Justin Jefferson in favorable coverages more often.
That’s also why the Vikings used their first-round pick on wide receiver Jordan Addison. The use of 12 personnel figures to put Jefferson and Addison on the field together and utilize Addison’s ability to beat defenders in the vertical passing game. Thielen’s inability to gain separation from defenders — he averaged 2.7 yards of separation in 2022 after being at 3.1 yards in 2021 — made it easier for teams to focus on Jefferson.
Alexander Mattison, who will graduate from Cook’s backup to the starting spot, could find himself as part of a running back by committee that uses Kene Nwangwu, Ty Chandler or even seventh-round pick DeWayne McBride. What O’Connell wants to reverse is the number of negative runs his team had in 2022. The Vikings went for zero or negative yards rushing 25.5 percent of the time, placing them last in the NFL.
O’Connell is aware that Cook also had some impressive gains, but what he really needs is a backfield that will put the Vikings in second-and-5 and third-and-short situations in order to create more options for him as a play caller.
The more O’Connell can use different formations and personnel packages, the more he can utilize the “illusion of complexity” that he’s talked about since the day he arrived from the Los Angeles Rams.
“I think anytime you have personnel versatility, it’s a way you can apply pressure,” O’Connell said during the Vikings’ minicamp. “And what I mean by that is, how many different guys in different roles, in the run and pass game, can we apply pressure to the defense in different types of ways that you’ve gotta defend us?
“Meaning, there’s no rule that you can’t put three tight ends out there; there’s no rule that (fullback) C.J. Ham can’t be aligned in the backfield one play and extended out in the formation on the next.”
O’Connell wants to force opposing defenses to give him as much information as possible and he wants the same for Cousins, knowing the veteran quarterback will have an advantage if the opponent is forced to reveal answers to the test before the ball is snapped.
“A lot goes into it,” O’Connell said.
But the payoff would be worth it.
It also comes entering O’Connell’s second season as head coach and play caller, giving him a better idea of what he wants and what will work. If the Vikings’ altered offense can achieve what O’Connell expects, no one will be lamenting the departure of Cook and Thielen and the consistency issues of 2022 should be long gone.
