The internet has been flooded with NFL mock drafts each day in the past month, even though the season isn’t complete. That isn’t a complaint, but it is a reminder that the mocks could change significantly once teams begin to address needs in free agency.
There are plenty of unknowns when it comes to the Minnesota Vikings. What we do know is that Over The Cap has the team with $24.9 million in salary-cap space and $19.8 million in effective cap room. The latter figure is the most realistic because it’s based on the space a team will have after signing at least 51 players and its projected rookie class.
The Vikings have the ability to create more room with various moves to cut contracts or restructure them. Of course, that space could be eaten up by the potential return of free agents such as quarterback Kirk Cousins and defensive end Danielle Hunter.
But those possibilities aren’t going to stop us from examining some potential free agents the Vikings could target.
Miami Dolphins DT Christian Wilkins
Christian Wilkins is ranked seventh in Pro Football Focus’ Top 150 free agent list, so this would be a major investment, but considering the Vikings’ desperate need for help in the interior defensive line and Wilkins’ relationship with defensive coordinator Brian Flores, it makes sense.
Wilkins was the first pick the Dolphins made after Flores became their coach in 2019. He has been a dominant run defender for several seasons, and this year he stepped up his pass-rushing game. Wilkins, playing on his fifth-year option, had a career-high nine sacks and 23 quarterback hits.
The 28-year-old is listed at 6-foot-4, 310 pounds and has been durable, starting 77 of 81 career games and all 17 games each of the past three years.
The Dolphins and Wilkins were unable to get a contract extension done last offseason and the team already is significantly over the cap. Miami could attempt to place the franchise tag on Wilkins — the projected number for defensive tackles next season is $19.7 million, according to Over The Cap — but it’s no given that will happen.
If Wilkins does hit the market, he could be looking for in excess of $20 million a year, so he might be too rich for the Vikings as well. But the presence of the versatile Wilkins in the middle of the line would be a massive upgrade for Flores’ defense.
Los Angeles Rams OG Kevin Dotson
The Vikings traded left guard Ezra Cleveland to Jacksonville during the season after signing Dalton Risner. Risner started 11 of the 15 games in which he appeared, but is again set to become a free agent. Dotson would be an interesting replacement if the Vikings decide to upgrade.
Dotson, 27, spent this season at right guard with the Los Angeles Rams after playing his first three years at left guard with the Pittsburgh Steelers. He is ranked 23rd in the PFF Top 150 and played a big role in the Rams’ success shifting from a wide-zone rushing scheme to a heavy gap system.
The Rams and Vikings finished tied for 27th in rushing offense in 2022, averaging 97.7 yards per game. This season, the Rams moved to 11th (120.3 yards per game), while the Vikings fell to 29th (91.4).
Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell, a former Rams assistant, might want to consider taking a page from his good friend Sean McVay’s playbook and altering his run game as well.
Dotson could assist.
Dotson, listed at 6-4, 321 pounds, also is good in pass protection so there would be no sacrifice in that area. PFF’s Brad Spielberger projects Dotson’s next contract at four years, $69 million ($17.25 million per year) with $41.25 million in guarantees. The Rams have the cap space to retain Dotson, and Spielberger’s projected figure would make the veteran the third highest-paid guard in the NFL at $17.25 million.
It won’t be surprising if Dotson tests the open market, but recent history says the Vikings won’t be the team to meet his asking price. Still, it would be nice to upgrade one of the spots in the interior offensive line.
Houston Texans CB Steven Nelson
Steven Nelson just turned 31 and is ranked 35th in the PFF Top 150, making him the sixth corner on the list. We are trying to be at least a little realistic here and the Vikings aren’t going to be pursuing several of the Top 20 free agents, especially if they retain some of their own expensive ones.
But the Vikings need veteran depth at corner and there has to be concern about Akayleb Evans’ late-season struggles and Andrew Booth Jr.’s inability to get on the field for much of his first two seasons. The Vikings made an investment in Cardinals free agent corner Byron Murphy Jr. last offseason when they signed him to a two-year, $17.5 million contract that included $12.6 million in guarantees.
Murphy, who played both outside and inside in the nickel, suffered a Grade 3 MCL sprain late in the season against the Bengals and his absence created issues. Mehki Blackmon, drafted in the third round last April by the Vikings, started three of the 15 games in which he played as a rookie and showed promise.
But another reliable veteran wouldn’t hurt.
Nelson began his NFL career in 2015 with Kansas City and also has played for Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. He started 16 of the 17 games in which he played for the Texans this season, totaling more than 1,000 snaps on defense, and tied his career-high with four interceptions.
Nelson added an 82-yard interception return for a touchdown and broke up three passes in the Texans’ 45-14 victory over the Cleveland Browns in the opening round of the playoffs. That came after he broke up 12 passes in the regular season.
His one-year contract with the Texans this season carried only a $5.4 million salary-cap hit but so isn’t breaking the bank. Considering his production, a one-year investment by the Vikings might be wise.
Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard
The Vikings could try to solve their issues at running back by making Ty Chandler the No. 1 guy next season, but it’s not a given that will happen and the team is in need of depth at this spot.
Alexander Mattison, who signed a two-year, $7 million extension last offseason, figures to be back but he failed to take control of the top role. Mattison, who had spent his first four seasons with the Vikings as the backup to Dalvin Cook, averaged 3.9 yards per carry and had no touchdowns on a team-leading 180 attempts. Chandler’s playing time increased later in the season and he averaged 4.5 yards and had three touchdowns on 102 carries.
Pollard, 26, could be an interesting fit sharing time in the backfield. He saw his per carry average dip from 5.2 to 4.0 yards this season, but he had six touchdowns and caught 55 passes for 311 yards (5.7 average). Mattison and Chandler caught 51 passes combined.
The other thing that separates Pollard from the Vikings’ duo is that he’s very good in pass protection and, thus, can be trusted on third down.
Pollard played this season on the franchise tag and had to carry far more of the workload with Ezekiel Elliott no longer in Dallas. Just as Mattison didn’t live up to expectations with Cook gone in Minnesota, Pollard fell short in Dallas when he carried the ball.
That decrease in production figures to drop his value and, at the right price, giving him an opportunity to compete for a job with the Vikings could make everyone better.
