The Ukrainian people would reject a peace deal that involves Ukraine unilaterally withdrawing from the eastern Donbas region and turning it over to Russia, President Volodymyr Zelensky told Axios in an interview Tuesday.
Why it matters: As Zelensky was speaking to Axios, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators were meeting for a third round of direct talks in Geneva. The main sticking point is control of the Donbas, around 10% of which is still in Ukrainian hands.
- Zelensky said U.S. mediators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have told him Russia genuinely wants to end the war, and that he should coordinate with his own negotiating team on that basis ahead of the talks.
- But Zelensky made clear he's much more pessimistic. He also advised Witkoff and Kushner that they shouldn't try to force him to sell a vision of peace his own people would see as an "unsuccessful story."
Friction point: Zelensky said it was "not fair" that President Trump kept publicly calling on Ukraine, not Russia, to make concessions for peace.
- He contended that, while it might be easier for Trump to pressure Ukraine than the much larger Russia, the way to create a lasting peace is not "to give victory" to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
- Trump said twice in recent days that the onus was on Zelensky to make concessions. "I hope it is just his tactics and not the decision," Zelensky told Axios.
- He also thanked Trump for his peacemaking efforts, and said his conversations with Kushner and Witkoff don't involve the kind of pressure Trump uses in public. "We respect each other," he said, adding that he was "not such a person" who folds easily under pressure.
- Zelensky reiterated that the best way to find a breakthrough on territory is for Putin to meet him face to face. He said he'd told his team to raise a future leader-level meeting in Geneva.
Driving the news: The U.S. mediators have proposed that Ukrainian forces withdraw from the parts of the Donbas they currently hold and allow that area to become a demilitarized "free economic zone." Washington has not taken a position on which country would hold sovereignty there.
- Zelensky is prepared to discuss a troop withdrawal, but has called for Moscow to pull its troops back an equivalent distance — and has rejected Russia's claim to sovereignty over the zone.
- Zelensky claimed that in the second round of talks, Russian officials promised to consult with Moscow and return with a detailed position on the territorial question.
What he's saying: In his 37-minute phone interview with Axios, Zelensky noted that Washington and Kyiv have agreed that any deal must be put to the Ukrainian people in a referendum.
- If that deal involves the Ukrainian side simply pulling out of Donbas — sacrificing sovereignty and the citizenship of the people who live there — he believes it would be voted down.
- "Emotionally, people will never forgive this. Never. They will not forgive... me, they will not forgive [the U.S.]," Zelensky said, adding that Ukrainians "can't understand why" they would be asked to give up additional land.
- "This is part of our country, all these citizens, the flag, the land," Zelensky said.
The flipside: If the deal simply freezes the current battle lines in the Donbas, as is the plan in two other regions where Russia holds territory, Zelensky thinks the Ukrainian people would accept it.
- "I think that if we will put in the document ... that we stay where we stay on the contact line, I think that people will support this [in a] referendum. That is my opinion."
- But Russia insists it will take the full Donbas either through talks or by force.
- Addressing the dispute in a way that both sides can accept is the primary focus for Witkoff and Kushner in this week's talks.
The intrigue: The Russian delegation has a new leader: Putin adviser Vladimir Medinsky.
- Given the change in leadership, Zelensky worries the Russian delegation will try to turn the talks into a meet and greet, or return to square one to buy more time for Russia on the battlefield.
- He also noted that, like Putin, Medinsky likes to philosophize about the "historical roots" of the war. "We don't have time for all this shit. So we have to decide, and have to finish the war," Zelensky said.
State of play: While the political dialogue has been slow-going, Zelensky said military-to-military talks with Russia in Abu Dhabi were more productive.
- The sides largely agreed on a U.S.-led mechanism to monitor a ceasefire using drones, should one be reached, he said.
- But while Ukraine also wants European countries involved, the Russians are opposed.
Update: While the Russia-Ukraine military group continued making progress in the talks in Geneva on Tuesday, the negotiations in the political group were "stuck," two sources with knowledge said.
- The sources said that was due to positions presented by Medinsky.
- One of the sources also said the Russians complained about Zelensky's recent public statements and claimed the Ukrainian president wasn't seriously negotiating, but rather trying to boost his popularity domestically ahead of possible elections.
What to watch: Zelensky said nothing is settled, but it is possible new presidential elections will be held alongside a referendum.
- Zelensky told Axios in September that once the war was over, he would step away from politics.
- But in Tuesday's interview, he suggested that any election may have to take place during a fragile ceasefire, and that he may be a candidate in such a scenario. "It will depend on the people. We will see what they want."
- He also noted that, for now, Russia has only agreed on a one-day ceasefire for Ukraine to organize and hold a national vote, rather than the 60 days Zelensky thinks are needed.
- He saw the Russian position as absurd, and a possible indication that Moscow is not prepared for genuine peace.
What's next: Trilateral talks in Geneva are expected to continue on Wednesday.
