Zach Wilson returned to the starting lineup for the New York Jets in Week 15. It wasn’t a matter of merit for 2021’s second overall draft pick. He was head coach Robert Saleh’s begrudging choice to replace an injured Mike White.
His rise back up the depth chart ended a three-game streak in which he’d been inactive after inefficient passing and ineffective leadership threatened to tank the Jets’ 2022 season. And over the course of 60 minutes in a 20-17 loss to the Detroit Lions, Wilson tantalized his head coach with reasons to believe in his talent. He also gave Saleh reasons to bury him on the depth chart.
Amazingly, he managed to pull these emotions off within seconds of each other. Like when he balanced out this composed strike under pressure to convert third-and-five:
With this completely avoidable interception exactly one play later.
Picked! @Lions are deep into Jets territory following the turnover. #OnePride
📺: #DETvsNYJ on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/nW0d7KOLXR pic.twitter.com/bWg1ZQV9UJ— NFL (@NFL) December 18, 2022
That turnover showcases the worst aspects of Wilson’s game. Not only did he completely blank the relatively simple safety help sliding toward the sideline, but he also stared down Elijah Moore from the moment he executed his play-action fake. Combine that with an underthrown ball and it’s disaster.
Zach Wilson INT dots, via @NextGenStats pic.twitter.com/Fwwc0fyUPj
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 18, 2022
This was a turning point for Wilson, who didn’t play as well as his first half numbers — 185 yards on 14 passes, one touchdown and a 125.6 passer rating — would indicate, but remained solid behind center early in northern New Jersey. There was an early composure to the second-year quarterback’s game that suggested he wasn’t going to waste the opportunity he’d been given. He stood up against pressure and, just as importantly, made the right reads downfield.
This, for example, was exactly the kind of throw Wilson made at his pro day in 2021 that convinced the Jets to draft him. It was his first touchdown pass since November 6.
BOOM!@ZachWilson to @cj_uzomah for six!!#DETvsNYJ on CBS pic.twitter.com/An1VAViD4m
— New York Jets (@nyjets) December 18, 2022
But even his big throws showcased the hitch in his game. Those long tosses teetered on underthrows. Uzomah was a little lucky to haul in his pass. And what should have been a touchdown to Jeff Smith if Wilson could hit him in stride instead turned out to be a meager 50-yard gain:
The confidence he showed on these throws — passes that would likely be 50/50 balls against a secondary better than the Lions’ 21st-ranked passing defense — evaporated for a long stretch in the second half after getting pantsed by Jerry Jacobs’ too-easy interception. Pressure began to pile up and have a clear effect on Wilson’s throws even when he still had room in the pocket. Here’s a skipped screen to Braxton Berrios:
And here’s a potential pick-six rescued by Michael Carter in a clip the Jets’ social media team absolutely should not be highlighting on their own accounts.
Air Carter!!#DETvsNYJ on CBS pic.twitter.com/UecVMiUwvs
— New York Jets (@nyjets) December 18, 2022
This was the Wilson New York got with a chance to take control of the game. When faced with static in the pocket, the second-year QB shrank. Downfield accuracy was a coin toss. The wideouts who’d thrived with White at quarterback were thrust into unwinnable situations.
Zach Wilson leads Garrett Wilson too far on third down and Garrett is … unhappy with the result (though if he catches this, he gets immediately splattered) pic.twitter.com/1v2muhwdUW
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) December 18, 2022
This was at times brutal to watch and at times encouraging. Saleh has done a wonderful job emulating former boss Kyle Shanahan’s roster building in San Francisco by surrounding his shaky quarterback with playmakers. Those young stars struggled in stretches but Garrett Wilson also shined on a day where Corey Davis and Denzel Mims hardly played due to injury.
This was especially true late in the fourth quarter. The WR Wilson’s playmaking proved contagious. He could get things done on his own:
Yes, @GarrettWilson_V is different.#DETvsNYJ on CBS pic.twitter.com/oJs2wUw5vy
— New York Jets (@nyjets) December 18, 2022
But the Wilson-to-Wilson connection was also buoyed by the QB reclaiming his stroke when it mattered most. This third-and-19 pass, for example, was exactly where it needed to be:
Over the final two minutes, Wilson was sacked twice for negative-17 yards. He also threaded the needle on third and a mile (seen above) and conjured up this borderline wizardry on fourth-and-18 moments later:
WHAT A PLAY! WE HAVE A SHOT!#DETvsNYJ on CBS pic.twitter.com/XksCEMln4n
— New York Jets (@nyjets) December 18, 2022
This is the glass engine that is Zach Wilson. He’s capable of great things, just not for very long. He has the recognition to escape pressure, but also can lose double-digit yards to sacks in the middle of a two-minute drill. He can find open targets downfield, but can’t quite get the ball to them in stride. Every great play exists on a cantilever whose base is unable to support meaningful weight for more than a few seconds at a time.
Wilson finished his day with 317 passing yards and two touchdowns. He also threw an interception and was lucky to be limited to one. He barely completed better than 50 percent of his passes (18 of 35). He was sacked four times and hit 10 more against a defense that ranked a middling 16th in pressure rate coming into Week 15.
This is a player who steers into trouble and ultimately lacks the horsepower to pull himself out of it. Wilson is maddening to watch because the glimpses of a good quarterback are there, but prove to be empty calories in the long run.
This leaves Saleh with a decision left to be made. Wilson’s overall body of work suggests he’s due another shot in the lineup, but his long stretches of awful play threaten to further tank a shaky offense. The former No. 2 pick couldn’t consistently find daylight against a not-great Lions defense but favorable matchups against the Jacksonville Jaguars (28th in overall DVOA) and Seattle Seahawks (21st) loom. Is this the runway Wilson needs to reclaim his starting job and status as a potential franchise cornerstone? Or would starting him be laying more asphalt on a road to nowhere?
If Sunday’s game is any indication, it’ll be a combination of both. Wilson looked like he’d learned from his benching in stretches against Detroit. He also looked like the same ineffective, shrinking-from-pressure detriment who’d earned that demotion in the first place. Sometimes there was hardly room to take a breath between those extremes.
