Bank of Ayudhya (Krungsri) expects Thai importers to make greater use of Chinese yuan in international transactions, reflecting the growing volume of imports from China.
According to Hirotaka Kuroki, head of the global markets group at Krungsri, Thai importers and exporters have increasingly used currencies other than the US dollar, euro and yen, reflecting a shift towards multi-currency transactions. In particular, use of the yuan and Indian rupee has risen in line with Thailand's growing imports from China and expanding cross-border trade with the two countries.
However, the US dollar remains the primary currency used by Thai businesses for international transactions, accounting for around 80% of the country's total import and export volume. Meanwhile, the share of yuan-denominated transactions has risen to around 5%, surpassing that of the yen.
Despite steady growth in the use of the rupee, it accounts for less than 1% of total transactions, he said.
According to Bank of Thailand data, the value of Thai imports settled in currencies other than the US dollar, euro and yen increased from US$18.2 billion in 2015 to $42.2 billion in 2025, up 132%. For exports, the value of transactions settled in non-key global currencies rose from $31.8 billion in 2015 to $59.7 billion in 2025, an increase of 88%.
Mr Kuroki said the bank's trading and foreign exchange business has continued to expand over the past five years, supported by the steady growth of Thailand's cross-border trade. The annual growth rate of business transactions accelerated to 7.4% in 2025 from 6.7% in 2024, 5.7% in 2023, 4.7% in 2022 and 4.0% in 2021.
According to central bank data, Thailand's total import and export value tallied $646 billion in 2025, up 61.2% from 2015. Meanwhile, the value of foreign exchange transactions for trade in goods conducted through commercial banks was $292 billion in 2025, a gain of 5.7% from 2015.
Roong Sanguanruang, senior vice-president of the global markets planning division at Krungsri, said the baht is expected to remain volatile for the rest of the year amid heightened uncertainty, particularly over the monetary policy direction of the US Federal Reserve.
Under the Fed's new chairman Kevin Warsh, who wants to reform the central bank's communications by reducing reliance on forward guidance, investors have shifted their focus from the Middle East conflict to the future path of US monetary policy.
"Although the baht has weakened since the beginning of the year, we expect it could strengthen slightly in the final quarter, trading in a range of 32-34 baht per US dollar," she said.
This year the baht has depreciated 6.3% against the US dollar, mainly due to pressure from higher global oil prices. The currency has traded in a range of 30.90-33.80 baht per dollar, touching its weakest level in 15 months.
