Revolutions are rarely successful. But although they are often thwarted by those they seek to overthrow, the energy created even by unsuccessful revolutionary protest can spark a process that builds momentum over weeks, months – and even years, as two women who led very different uprisings explain.
Belarus: the unexpected president
At last month’s Oslo Freedom Forum, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya took confidently to the stage.
Officially recognised by the US and many European nations as the winner of the Belarusian presidential election in 2020, she has lived in exile since Alexander Lukashenko, who has held the country in an iron grip for 28 years, claimed victory in the ballot.
Every inch the stateswoman in her suit and high heels, Tsikhanouskaya won a standing ovation from Oslo’s audience of human rights activists and journalists. Days later, she passed a painful milestone: two years since she last saw her husband, Sergei Tikhanovsky, a dissident blogger who was arrested after announcing plans to run in the 2020 election and sentenced to 18 years in prison. He left behind a stay-at-home mother looking after two children with hearing difficulties; she has no idea if he knows how much has changed in his absence.
“My husband was jailed and I haven’t had any communication with him since. We never discussed my participation in the election, in politics.
“It was unimaginable, because I was a housewife and we never discussed politics at home. I became interested only because my husband started his blog and began to oppose the dictator, so when he was jailed, my first thought was to support him, a step to show my love for him. It was not for freedom or democracy.
“But then, of course, so many people started to demonstrate and show their intention for change that I joined. In our country, everybody had thought you can’t change anything, you are in the minority.
“Then, in 2020, we saw there were millions of us who felt the same. ”
The sense of hope as huge numbers of people swelled pro-democracy rallies in Belarus was strengthened by Tsikhanouskaya and two other opposition leaders, Maria Kolesnikova and Veronika Tsepkalo standing for change – all women, all united.
“I think it was a unique moment because we are a post-Soviet country. In the Soviet Union, a woman knew where her place was – and her place was behind a man, always. Of course, times were changing and in Belarus we had a lot of women in business and some politicians, but not a lot. There were still rules that women were in the secondary roles, but in 2020 the regime underestimated the role of women.
“I was accepted as candidate. Lukashenko wanted to make a laughing stock of me – ‘Look who would vote for a woman? She’s a housewife’ – but he didn’t catch the mood. Belarusian people are so tired of politicians who care only about themselves, who don’t care about the people, and the fact that women were leading this uprising was attractive for people because they see women as normally kinder, more caring about children; they want people to be happy, to be in comfort. Lukashenko said, ‘Our constitution is not for a woman,’ that there would never be a woman president in our country, and it showed he’d lost connection.
“Now, of course, our win has shown that women have the same power as men and in future in Belarus there will be no debate about where the place of women is. She will be equal to men. I think we now will avoid this part of our history where women will have to fight for their rights, because we already proved everything.”
Lukashenko, keen to strengthen ties with Vladimir Putin, has supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“In Belarus, when the dictator became a collaborator and co-aggressor it was shocking for Belarusian people because we know that we are on the side of Ukranians,” she says.
“The regime of Lukashenko and the Belarusian people are two different things. Put Belarusian people and Ukrainians together when you are talking about the struggle for freedom.
“In the international arena we are managing to explain to people what is going on. Please punish the Belarusian regime, but please support the Belarusian people. When you mention punishment or sanctions, be precise.
“We are with Ukrainians. When Lukashenko dragged our country into the war, despite repressions, despite people realising they faced torture or being detained, hundreds of thousands took to the streets to protest. It’s extremely difficult to fight in a dictatorship when you are detained for a yellow ribbon in your hair or for an Instagram like, but this war wasn’t approved by Belarusian people.
“Many Belarusians are fighting with Ukrainians. The partisans in Belarus are working to stop equipment, to stop arms and food supplies getting through our territories to reach Russian troops. Belarusian people can claim two victories: that Russian troops didn’t feel safe in Belarus because of the disruptions, and that people are taking pictures of troops and missiles launching and troop movements and sending this information immediately to the Ukrainians,” she says.
“So, yes, for me, in two years I have changed. It’s not modest to say so, but I became a symbol of change. I addressed the UN and met Joe Biden and so on, but it will be a huge pleasure when my husband is released to give him back this role, to exchange roles, because I am so tired and exhausted. It is hard to hear all the time about people who are suffering, who are tortured. When he is released, I will give him this flag.
“On 29 May, it was two years of detention. I have heard his voice only on video. I’m a woman, I’m strong enough – I’m an adult, but its very hard to see children wait for their daddy. I have to make him stay in their memory, so I have pictures of my husband everywhere in our apartment. Every night, I hear, ‘When is my daddy coming back?’”
“I live with this hope that my children will see him soon, and it pushes you, it pushes you every day. There are so many political prisoners.”
“In 2020 we thought one more week, one more week, but two years have passed. It’s a big period of life, but people are not ready to say, ‘OK we didn’t achieve, we will give up,’ so that energy is underground. It’s in the people.
“We don’t know how long the regime’s arms are, so I have to make sure my children have people who can take care of them.
“You think how you will be tortured, how you will be humiliated. You cannot be not scared, but you have to step over your fear. My husband was afraid; others were afraid. It is the price you pay. More and more people are involved in the pro-democracy movement and people understand that our country can be completely different after 27 wasted years when a dictator thought of nothing but himself.”
Yemen: after the revolution
Tawakkol Karman became known as “the lady of the Arab spring” in recognition of her role in the 2011 pro-democracy youth uprising in Yemen for which she won a Nobel peace prize. Now living in exile with her husband and baby son, she is an activist against corruption and authoritarianism and still works for the revolution that rolled across the Arab region but left Yemen behind – a country now gripped by war and hunger.
“The revolution is a continuous act. It doesn’t stop, especially when it faces challenges and obstacles. The age of the revolution is still here; it’s just 11 years, and in that time we have overthrown about seven dictators in the Arab spring, so that’s a big, big achievement. We will not lose our hope. We are so proud of what we did and the problem is now with the counter-revolution leaders and those who support authoritarian regimes.
“We will not give up and we will continue and we will achieve our goals of freedom and democracy.”
“The current ceasefire is very important and the food security situation is very important, but Yemen is bigger than that,” she says. “Stopping the war means stopping the Saudis and the influence of Iran … If the Saudis stop their missiles, that will stop the current situation. They have total hegemony; they forced the legitimate president to resign and gave the authority to a presidential council. Stopping the war means Yemen has to decide its own path, to sever from the Emirates; from Iran as well.
“The reason that Saudi waged the war was that they want to stop the wheel of change in Yemen. They want to stop a peaceful-transition revolution.
“Dictators think they will be allowed to control whatever they want to. The more a dictator is appeased and the more western governments make alliances with dictators, the stronger they are and the more their people suffer.
“Yemen and all the countries who chose to face the dictators, they will not stop their dream. Every great revolution is followed by the counter-revolution, but the future belongs to us and we are optimistic because we started this battle and knew we would face such obstacles.
“The thing that we didn’t expect during our struggle? It is that we didn’t expect western governments to let us down as they did. They make alliances with dictators and they encourage dictators to wage all kinds of wars against us – Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi in Egypt. They support these people by not putting pressure on them to stop. They are selling weapons to them.
“So that has really frustrated us,” she says. “And one of the results of that is we see now how Putin was encouraged in going into Ukraine. In Syria, his actions going without censure encouraged him.”
Russia has supported the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, in the ongoing conflict in Syria since the start of the uprising in 2011 and directly intervened militarily in 2015. Its bombing of civilian targets, hospitals and schools is widely recognised as causing hundreds of deaths and it holds a naval base in Syrian territory. The lack of censure of Russia’s actions, Karman believes, gave a green light to Putin’s warmongering ambitions.
“The situation in Syria encouraged Putin to invade Crimea and then Ukraine, so now all of our freedom is under threat.
“Our enemies should be one. It is one battle all around the world. It is so clear. Don’t trust these dictators; don’t think your alliance will help you – they are ruthless and united together. Authoritarian regimes are not friends to democratic regimes. Putin and those like him are the enemies of humanity.
“I feel deep sympathy for Ukraine, but I really expected this war.”
However, Karman insists she is an optimist. She believes the place of women at the forefront of politics in her region is too strong to ever be reversed.
“We change a lot. Women led the Arab spring; we led the revolution. The deep root of leading the political process and decision-making has changed things for women in society.
“Chaos and wars cause woman and children double the issues, but women are sacrificing, leading the struggle against coups in Libya, in Syria, in Sudan, in Yemen, and inside Saudi Arabia too. Women are paying the price for just daring to be an activist.
“Some people will say that women’s rights have gone backwards; some people lose hope, but this is the battle for freedom and democracy and we should remember that the people are there, underground, still sacrificing. The majority continue the struggle, dreaming to make change. They don’t give up but are willing and happy to sacrifice anything for their kids to have a future.
“When we raised the revolution, we knew the dictators and the kingdoms around us would do all they could do to stop this wheel of change. OK, we did not expect the western governments who claim to support democracy to let us down, but we believe in ourselves and we know that sooner or later we will win this battle. We are both so sad and so mad.
“I am optimistic. I know the west will wake up and correct their policies, because now they are under fire. Make alliances with freedom fighters and activists around the world.
“For Yemen, there needs to be a real will to stop the war. The Yemeni authorities need to have their political independence and make real alliances – not through the gate of Saudi Arabia.
“People are so scared of Saudi Arabia. The world takes no kind of action because of this dark, dark oil money.
“For politicians who still follow this strategy of believing dictators somehow guarantee stability, this will not work. Dictators pose the greatest risk to global peace. They are the ones who directly and indirectly support terrorism, poverty, corruption. We need peace, democracy and rule of law.”
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