You can expect a 25 bps cut from the Fed, says Wall Street, but little economic insight from Powell—after all, he doesn’t have much to go on

(Credit: Kent Nishimura—Getty Images)

With the government still shut down, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be making its decision about America’s base interest rate today without some key data. So when Chair Jerome Powell announces the outcome of the meeting in a press conference this afternoon, analysts are expecting him to deliver less insight than usual into the health of the economy.

Wall Street is largely expecting a cut to be confirmed today. Despite likely arguments from more dovish members of the FOMC that a cut of 50 basis points is appropriate, markets have priced in a 99.9% certainty that a 25 bps cut will be the outcome. Per CME’s FedWatch barometer, interest rate traders are pricing a 0% chance of a 50 bps cut, and a 0.1% chance of a hold.