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Fortune
Fortune
Eleanor Pringle

Yet another recession indicator is flashing as consumer confidence declines sharply in September

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell arrives to speak during a news conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the Federal Reserve on September 17, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Credit: Chip Somodevilla—Getty Images)
  • Wall Street remains optimistic about avoiding recession, but consumer confidence is sliding, with the Conference Board’s Expectations Index falling further into recessionary territory in September. Confidence in business conditions and job availability has weakened sharply, raising concerns that the spending power underpinning corporate growth could falter. While inflation expectations eased slightly, they remain elevated, and economists warn the looming government shutdown could further obscure the economic picture by halting key data releases.

Wall Street is largely convinced that the American economy will avoid a recession, with stocks climbing higher week after week thanks to this optimism. Yet consumers on the ground are looking increasingly shaky, pushing confidence barometers into unhealthy territory. 

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