YES would easily win a new independence referendum if it was certain that Scotland would rejoin the European Union, a new poll has found.
A YouGov survey, published on Tuesday, found that 56% of people would vote for independence if it meant EU membership, while just 32% would vote No.
However, the poll also found that 53% of people would vote No if independence meant leaving the pound for a new currency, while 33% would vote Yes.
The poll was published to mark 10 years since the 2014 independence referendum. With a neutral question, it found support for the Union “stands at effectively the same level as a decade ago” – with 56% of Scots backing No against 44% for Yes.
With the 10 year anniversary of the Scottish independence referendum tomorrow, support for 'Yes' and 'No' among voters stands at effectively the same level as a decade ago No: 56% (+1 from 2014) Yes: 44% (-1)https://t.co/yIsrOwaIqc pic.twitter.com/h3eJo94Mm4
— YouGov (@YouGov) September 17, 2024
In the 2014 vote, Scotland voted by 55% to 45% to remain a part of the United Kingdom.
The YouGov survey found that the majority of Scots (52%) were happy that the referendum happened, while 33% said it was a bad idea to hold it.
Further, the survey found that support for No may be softer than support for Yes. YouGov junior data journalist Dylan Difford wrote: “Notably, one in five hypothetical ‘No’ voters (21%) say their view on independence is not strong, compared to only 8% of hypothetical ‘Yes’ voters.
“Whether the pro-independence side can win over these currently disproportionately softer ‘No’ voters, as well as those who currently ‘don’t know’, could be key in deciding any future referendum.”
However, the YouGov poll also found that 18% of 2014 Yes voters have since changed their minds, a higher proportion that the 11% of No voters who have also done so.
However, Difford noted: “While ‘No’ might have been more successful at converting those who voted in 2014, younger voters who have entered the electorate in the last decade lean towards independence.
“Four in 10 16-24 year olds (39%) say they would vote ‘Yes’ in a future referendum, against three in ten (31%) saying they would vote ‘No’. Also leaning towards independence are 25-49 year olds, with 42% saying they support it, compared to 37% who are opposed.”
On the issue of whether there should be a second referendum, a plurality of Scots (43% vs 40%) believe one should take place in the next decade.
However, just 18% (against 70%) want a new vote in the next year, and 37% (against 51%) want to see one in the next five years.
Long-term, the plurality of Scots think the country will be independent. A total of 45% said they think it is likely to happen in the next half a century, while 31% said it was not.
In shorter time scales, most Scots think it is unlikely the country will vote Yes. A total of 80% of people said it was unlikely within five years, while 10% said it was, and 51% said it was unlikely over the next 20 years, while 34% said it was likely.
YouGov surveyed 1063 adults in Scotland (aged 16 and above) from August 29 till September 3. You can find the full results here.
