SUPPORT for independence remains stable as Yes takes a narrow lead as Scottish Labour suffered a major blow in a latest poll.
According to a poll for The Sunday Times by Norstat (formerly known as Panelbase), including the undecided voters in a weighted sample, support for independence sits at 47.4% against No on 46.9%.
With Don't Knows excluded, the two camps are neck and neck.
Males and females aged 16-25 have the highest percentage of Yes voters, with 74% and 63% respectively.
The independence figures were in the same poll which showed Labour's support in Scotland plunge after the Budget, with voters worried that Rachel Reeves’s tax hikes will make them worse off.
Backing for Anas Sarwar’s party has fallen to such an extent that it would be virtually impossible for him to form a government, if the numbers were replicated at the 2026 Holyrood elections.
The poll by Norstat, said that while voters supported many measures in Labour’s first Budget since coming to power, they felt it would leave them and Scotland as a whole worse off, The Sunday Times reported.
In the constituency ballot, Labour’s support has fallen seven points to 23%, which is the lowest level since Nicola Sturgeon resigned as first minister last March.
On the regional list, Labour’s support fell by six points to 22%.
If those numbers were replicated in the next Scottish Parliament election, Labour would have 29 MSPs, falling short of the level needed to form a government, according to polling expert Professor John Curtice (below) of Strathclyde University.
The poll put the SNP on 33% support in the constituency ballot, unchanged on the last survey in August and up one point to 29% on the regional list. This gives them a projected 51 MSPs, in a result which would likely see John Swinney hold on as First Minister.
Curtice said Labour’s popularity since the start of the summer “has now fallen as rapidly as the leaves in autumn”.
The poll found that under the new leadership of Russell Findlay (below), the Scottish Conservatives increased their constituency support by three points to 15%. There was no change on the regional list where they have 14%.
Those numbers would relegate the party to third place with just 16 MSPs.
And the survey showed Nigel Farage’s Reform could stand to do well in the next Scottish Parliament election in 18 months’ time, with 11% in both the constituency and regional ballot – putting them ahead of both the LibDems and the Greens.
Curtice said Reform could become the biggest of the smaller parties
