XRP limped out of June down roughly 20%, starting the month near $1.30 and closing around $1.04, its weakest level since late 2024.
Now, on July 2, it's grinding right at the $1.08 to $1.10 resistance band, the exact ceiling where bears have shown up over and over. For a token that traded near $3.65 last July, this is a long, grinding way down.
The strangest part is that nothing actually went wrong at Ripple. June was a busy, mostly positive month. The price fell anyway.
The News Wall That Should Have Sent XRP Flying
Look at what landed in just the past week. Ripple joined Open USD, a new dollar stablecoin backed by Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock, and more than 140 other companies. Mastercard separately named Ripple a settlement partner in its new AI-payments network. And the CLARITY Act heads to a New York hearing this month, one more step toward regulatory certainty.
Any one of those a year ago would have ripped XRP higher. Instead, the token shrugged. That disconnect is exactly the trap Ripple's own CEO keeps describing.
Digital assets are "close to zero percent" of Ripple's roughly $16 trillion in annual payments. — Brad Garlinghouse, CEO, Ripple
Translation: the rails are being adopted, but that adoption isn't landing on the token. Worse, stablecoins like Open USD can carry settlement value without ever needing XRP as the bridge.
Why the Price Ignores the Wins
The honest answer is macro, not Ripple. XRP got caught in a broad crypto selloff that dragged Bitcoin below $59,000 and pulled Ethereum and Solana down with it. XRP simply falls harder than most when the mood sours, given its high beta. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 12, deep in extreme fear, and the 200-day moving average has been falling since June 26.
The one bullish signal that directly buys the token also just cooled. XRP spot ETFs have pulled in roughly $1.48 billion since launch, but on June 30 they posted their first net outflow in weeks, right as the quarter closed.
The On-Chain Data Nobody's Talking About
Beneath the ugly candle, the plumbing for XRP looks healthier than the price. Daily active addresses jumped about 72% in two weeks, from roughly 23,000 to nearly 39,500, real network use rather than speculative noise. Open interest collapsed from a $1.3 billion peak to under $150 million, stripping out the leverage that amplified the drop. Long liquidations spiked more than 800% above their three-month average in a single flush.
That combination, cooled leverage plus rising usage plus an RSI near 32, is often how a bottom quietly starts to form. Emphasis on quietly, and on starts.
The Levels That Decide XRP's July
The map is clean. Support holds at $1.00 to $1.03, the zone buyers keep defending. Overhead, $1.08 to $1.10 is the first wall, then $1.13 to $1.15 at the 50-day average, then the one that matters, $1.18 to $1.20, the top of the falling channel that has caged XRP since May. Reclaim that and the year-long downtrend finally cracks.
For context on the upside, Standard Chartered has trimmed but kept a bullish house view near $2.80 under moderate conditions. Lose $1.00 on real volume, though, and $0.88 to $0.92 opens up fast.
So here's the question every XRP holder is staring at on July 2: if a Visa-and-BlackRock-backed stablecoin and a Mastercard AI deal can't move the price, what possibly can, and does the token even need to move for Ripple to win?
