As Xi Jinping embarks on an unprecedented third term as China’s leader, the world waits with bated breath to see how his growing power will affect the country’s path – and New Zealand will not be immune to the effects of a further slide into authoritarian rule, Sam Sachdeva writes
Comment: As Xi Jinping opened the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th national congress last week, he offered a grim warning to those gathered at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People.
The country must be “ready to withstand high winds, choppy waters, and even dangerous storms”, Xi said, with deep-seated problems at home and “a new period of turbulence and change” across the world.
At first glance, the reappointment of China’s leader to serve another five-year term might seem like a welcome step towards stability in such a turbulent world - but there are many who fear the nature of his renewed rule is a sign of further storm clouds to come.
When Xi’s third term as CCP general secretary was confirmed, the Chinese government officially broke with decades of precedent which had limited the duration of any one person’s leadership.
Xi must wait until next year to be confirmed as president by the National People’s Congress, the position that had formal term limits until their removal in 2018, but that’s merely a fait accompli given his reappointment as party secretary and head of the military.
While the decision to grant Xi a third term would be significant enough in isolation, China’s leader has also succeeded in further consolidating power into his own hands.
Chinese premier Li Keqiang, seen by some as a moderating influence on Xi’s rule, has in effect been shunted into retirement, while the Politburo standing committee - the country’s top governing body - is now made up entirely of loyalists with longstanding ties to their leader.
Xi Jinping Thought has been embedded more firmly into the country’s constitution, with amendments establishing Xi and his policies as “the core of the Party’s Central Committee and of the whole Party".
The changes provide further fuel to those who fear the leader is establishing a cult of personality similar to that on display during Mao Zedong’s disastrous rule, and setting himself up to rule for life regardless of the consequences.
Those anxieties were hardly eased by astonishing images of Hu Jintao, one of Xi’s predecessors, being escorted out of the congress hall despite appearing visibly reluctant to go. Chinese state media eventually reported Hu’s departure was due to health concerns, but the initial period of silence - as well as apparent censorship of comments about the incident on China’s social media platforms - has led to speculation about a potential ‘purge’, the truth or otherwise of which may remain unclear for some time.
“The New Zealand relationship will continue to be strong because trade is important, but let's also be clear that he's an autocratic ruler of a Communist state, and he's entrenching his power further." - National MP Simon O'Connor
Of course, concerns about China’s growing assertiveness on the global stage and the challenges it poses to the rules-based order are hardly new. Increased repression of dissenting voices and minority groups within China - most strikingly, of Uyghur Muslims in its Xinjiang province - has led to international condemnation, while the country’s attempts to use its economic might against smaller nations like Australia and Lithuania has also proved controversial.
The fear is that what little handbrake has remained in place will be released entirely, with potentially disastrous results both for the wider world and those who call China home.
“Xi now truly owns the system, but any mistakes will also be his - unmistakably,” University of Chicago professor Dali Yang told the New York Times. “Until now, if there were some problems in the economy, he could blame it on others.”
Speaking about Xi’s reappointment, Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta acknowledged its “precedent-breaking” nature but shied away from expressing any concern about China’s potential trajectory.
“What the world needs now is greater stability and leadership, and we all need to play our part in trying to minimise the harmful impacts of conflict.”
National Party foreign affairs spokesman Gerry Brownlee was similarly diplomatic, suggesting little would change in the New Zealand-China relationship as a result of the decision.
“President Xi is very aware of New Zealand and what we stand for: we will continue to speak with Chinese counterparts the way we always have, making it clear that while we appreciate the trading relationship we have some significant differences when it comes to human rights,” Brownlee said.
But his National colleague Simon O’Connor, a member of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, offered a more steely view of what may be to come.
“The New Zealand relationship will continue to be strong because trade is important, but let's also be clear that he's an autocratic ruler of a communist state, and he's entrenching his power further ... it certainly has some considerations around our national security and our cooperation with partners throughout the Pacific.”
'All measures' on table for Taiwan
While O’Connor said it would be hard for China to backslide much further when it came to human rights abuses, he expressed concern about an area of great uncertainty - Xi’s plans for Taiwan.
Although Xi placed an emphasis on peaceful reunification in his speech to congress, it came with a crucial caveat: “We will never promise to renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessarily.”
The head of the US Navy has warned a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could take place by 2024, and while that timeline has been dismissed by some as overly pessimistic, the reality is that tensions in the Taiwan Strait seem unlikely to dissipate in the foreseeable future.
Any such conflict would be almost certain to draw an American response, leaving New Zealand in a difficult position were either superpower to ask for its support.
Then there is the long-running issue of Aotearoa’s economic dependence on China, which presents a risk not just in terms of potential geopolitical retaliation but the consequences of an economic slowdown involving our top export destination.
The country’s ongoing adherence to a Zero Covid policy has put strain on its businesses dealing with ongoing lockdowns. And with no signs the Chinese government plans to abandon its elimination approach, the economic effects seem likely to endure for some time.
Making predictions about what the next five years holds in store for Xi’s China is arguably a fool’s errand, given the difficulty of reading tea leaves in the Chinese system.
But one thing is for sure - the concerns about China’s rise that have taken root in New Zealand and elsewhere in the world will only grow as its leader gathers more and more power.
