As the war in Ukraine continues and that country's allies ramp up sanctions against Russia, the world is waiting to see whether China will offer a hand to an old friend which is becoming increasingly isolated by the West.
China has been trying to remain neutral during the war, but joined Russia in condemning Western sanctions as "illegal" and "counter-productive" in the latest in-person meeting between the two countries' foreign ministers this week.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the two countries were now "more determined" to develop bilateral relationships and boost cooperation after meeting his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in China.
The announcement came weeks after the US warned China of economic sanctions and global isolation if it provides aid to Russia.
With shared borders, communist history and a common adversary in the West, many have assumed China and Russia will stand together on the war in Ukraine as long-lasting friends.
But for China, is Russia really the loyal friend that deserves this support if it means putting everything on the line?
Russia and China have not always been allies
In 2019, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced they were upgrading their countries' partnership to a special new tier.
Under the agreement, they would not only strengthen economic, strategic, and cultural ties, but would also "firmly support each other" in issues regarding sovereignty, territory, and security.
While China describes its relationship with Russia as "at its peak", the two countries are not in any form of political or military alliance such as NATO, or the Five Eyes arrangement between the US, UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand.
According to Bobo Lo, Sino-Russian relations expert and non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute, China and Russia's relationship is based fundamentally on self-interest, rather than shared values.
"It's important to emphasise also that while China and Russia agree on many things in international politics — for example, they oppose a dominant America — they have very different attitudes towards the international order," Mr Lo said.
Professor Mark Edele, a historian of Russia at the University of Melbourne, said China and Russia's relationship throughout history had been more of a marriage of convenience than a love match.
He said even after the Chinese Communist Party was founded in 1921, the Soviet Union continued to back the CCP's domestic rival, the Kuomintang, which the Soviets thought was much stronger.
"With the outbreak of World War II in Asia, the Soviet Union again supported the Kuomintang, and basically forced Mao and the communists into an alliance with them," Professor Edele said.
The relationship declined in the 1960s, and the the two nuclear-armed neighbours nearly went to war over the Zhenbao island territorial dispute in 1969.
China turned to the US to develop ties, with then-president Richard Nixon meeting Chairman Mao in Beijing in 1972 for historic talks. It wasn't until the 1980s that China-Soviet relations started to recover.
Today, Russia's interest in China is based on a goal for rapid economic growth while retaining a non-liberal political system, in contrast with the West's claim that liberty and economic growth must go together.
"It's a useful partnership from the Russian side," Professor Edele said.
Russia is more dependent on China
Before relations with the Soviet Union deteriorated in the 1960s, China and Chinese people had addressed the Soviet regime as "big old brother" because of the huge military and economic support the Soviet Union had offered China amid isolation from the West.
Russia is still a key security partner for China given its military capability, while China has been learning from Russia about how to play its diplomatic rhetoric to the West, said Alexey Muraviev, associate professor of strategic studies at Curtin University.
But economically, it is the West rather than Russia that is China's major partner. According to the World Bank, the United States ranked first amongst China's trading partners in 2019, Australia ranked 10th, while Russia did not make the top 10.
The war in Ukraine has pushed Russia to become even more dependent on China because of the sanctions imposed by the West, Dr Muraviev said.
Russia has already turned to China, including considering using China's payment system after Visa, Mastercard and American Express cut their services.
"This relationship may then become more and more unequal in China's favour," Dr Muraviev said.
On the other hand, China is not thrilled about Russia's performance during the war in Ukraine, according to Helena Legarda, an analyst at the Germany-based Mercator Institute for China Studies.
"China's clearly not particularly happy with the current situation with the war in Ukraine, the deaths of civilians and the humanitarian catastrophe that's emerging and escalating fairly quickly," she said, adding that China wanted to keep its image as a responsible global power that only seeks peace.
She also said China had no interest in being hit by sanctions or globally isolated, but agreed that China would not walk away from Russia.
"China wants to keep its relationship," she said.
"They have a lot in common, and Russia is very useful and a good partner in terms of pushing back against the West."
Putin and Xi are friends, so can Xi tell Putin to stop the war?
While Vladimir Putin is known as a man who walks alone, he has developed a personal chemistry with China's Xi Jinping, who has described the Russian President as his "best bosom friend".
But Bobo Lo said despite the strong personal relationship, Mr Xi 's influence over Mr Putin's decisions on Ukraine could be limited.
"When Xi Jinping acts in relation to Taiwan or in the South China Sea, he does not consult Vladimir Putin," Mr Lo said.
"Equally, when Vladimir Putin acts in Ukraine, he does not ask Xi Jinping permission.
"He may delay the invasion for a few days so that Xi Jinping can have his Beijing Winter Olympics without interruption. But he's not asking Xi Jinping for permission."
Mr Lo also noted that Mr Xi, who is seeking his third term in the upcoming 20th Party Congress, would have to consider the domestic cost of supporting Mr Putin.
"And at a certain time, Xi Jinping may decide the cost is too expensive," he said.
Ms Legarda said as Russia becomes increasingly isolated from the world and more dependent on China, Beijing might have more leverage over the relationship, but it would be unlikely to push the friendship.
"China doesn't have that much influence over Russia, precisely because they are both operating as these regional powers, and they are quite careful with the positions they take with each other," she said.
"They are quite careful not to encroach on each other's space."
