Leeds United were among European football’s best in terms of xG this weekend - despite losing the game. Expected goals is a relatively new phenomenon that evaluates the probability of scoring a chance.
For example, a tap-in from six yards would register higher on the xG scale than a 30-yard free-kick. The Whites, according to the metric, should have scored 2.84 goals against Aston Villa on Friday.
Just one goal highlights the wastefulness - and frustration - attributed to Leeds this season. Rodrigo missed a golden opportunity to pull United level after rounding Emiliano Martinez in the first half.
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Jack Harrison, too, missed a sitter from point-blank range to sum up Leeds’ disastrous evening. Patrick Bamford’s long-awaited return was soon followed by a consolation goal from six yards in the Whites only goal of the evening.
Marsch has been without his most natural goalscorer for most of his tenure in the Elland Road dugout. A poacher’s finish after some brilliant wide play from Wilfried Gnonto offered a rare moment of optimism for the future.
A lack of cutting-edge meant Leeds had the unfortunate honour of boasting the fourth-best xG in Europe… while finishing on the losing side. For context, Lille, Monaco and Atalanta, who also placed in the top seven, won 5-1, 7-1 and 8-2 respectively.
Marsch must address this issue if he is to remain in the hot seat for much longer. Just two wins in 17 games caused a section of travelling supporters to turn on the American at the full-time whistle.
Bamford is back, which is good news for the Whites’ impotent frontline. Signing Hoffenheim forward Georginio Rutter could also provide the impetus to get Leeds firing on all cylinders again.
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