The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are set to meet in the World Series for the first time since 1981 to renew MLB’s most common Fall Classic matchup, and there is no shortage of story lines.
New York vs. Los Angeles. Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman vs. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton. 2004 Boston Red Sox postseason hero Dave Roberts facing off against 2003 Yankees postseason hero Aaron Boone in the managerial battle of wits. And plenty more talking points that will surely surface throughout the series.
The Dodgers took two of three from the Yankees when the teams met at Yankee Stadium in June, but both rosters have undergone significant changes since then. And of course, games are managed much differently in the World Series than they are in the summer.
Here’s your guide to the most anticipated Fall Classic in years, as the Sports Illustrated staff picks x-factors for both teams and predicts how it’ll all play out in the country’s two most populated cities.
1. What's the biggest x-factor for the Dodgers to win?
Tom Verducci: Blake Treinen. His sweeper is video-game crazy good. He is Dave Roberts’s best arm, which means he is someone Roberts will not be able to save for the ninth inning. Time to damn the Law of Exposure. Roberts has to put Treinen on Soto, Judge, Stanton in every meaningful spot from the seventh inning on. His stuff is so good you don’t worry about hitters seeing him multiple times in a series.
Stephanie Apstein: Whether Alex Vesia can pitch—effectively—after missing the NLCS with an intercostal injury. As the Dodgers' top lefthanded reliever, he is their best shot at navigating the pocket of lineup that includes Juan Soto. If he can't go, or if he struggles, that will ask a lot of Anthony Banda, their only other lefty.
Emma Baccellieri: Starting pitching. L.A. has an entire rotation's worth of starters on the IL. Having a great bullpen helps, of course, but only so much. The Dodgers will still need some quality work from the trio of Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Can Flaherty bounce back after his last disastrous outing against the Mets in the NLCS? Can they get any meaningful length from Buehler? The Dodgers don't need their starters to be outstanding. But they do need them to be at least adequate.
Will Laws: How will Freddie Freeman look in the wake of a sprained ankle that caused him to miss Games 4 and 6 of the NLCS? He’s 1-for-15 in his last three games while trying to gut through the injury. Los Angeles scored just fine without him against the Mets, but the Yankees’ pitching staff is a different beast, and the former NL MVP makes the Dodgers’ lineup much more fearsome when at full strength.
Nick Selbe: Can any starting pitcher step up? The Dodgers' bullpen was outstanding in the NLCS, but they'll need at least two serviceable starts from Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Walker Buehler. The Cleveland Guardians' vaunted bullpen was not enough to overcome lackluster starting pitching against the Yankees (Cleveland starters accounted for just 38% of innings during the ALCS). Los Angeles doesn't need Sandy Koufax 2.0 to show up, but it will need something from its starters.
2. What's the biggest x-factor for the Yankees to win?
TV: Gleyber Torres. He’s been terrific at getting on base in front of the thick of the lineup. You know he’s feeling good when he’s slashing fastballs for line-drive singles to right field. His defense and base running can be problematic, but the offense can make a difference.
SA: How deep the starting pitchers can go. The Yankees have a typically impressive bullpen assembled from other teams' castoffs, but it is less deep than it has been in previous years, and the Dodgers become vastly more dangerous each time they see a pitcher. New York needs to limit how many chances Los Angeles gets to see its leverage arms.
EB: Whether they can meaningfully attack the L.A. bullpen. The relief corps has generally been a huge strength in this playoff run for the Dodgers, but they've had to carry a pretty heavy workload, and it's not going to get any lighter in the World Series. They're virtually guaranteed to have at least one (more) bullpen game here. Will the Yankees be able to make adjustments and benefit from repeated exposure to this group? That's especially key if this series goes long.
WL: Carlos Rodón’s starts have an especially wide range of outcomes, as we’ve already seen this postseason. If New York’s likely Game 2 (and Game 6, if necessary) starter can pitch like he did in his first ALCS outing, New York will be in terrific shape. If he looks more like he did in the ALDS, that’ll put a lot of pressure on a bullpen that was already exposed a bit last round.
NS: Base running might seem like a boring answer, but it could prove to be the difference. The Yankees ranked last in FanGraphs' base running metric, 24th in stolen bases and 29th in speed score. They had so many gaffes against Cleveland that radio broadcaster John Sterling exclaimed they ran the bases “like drunks.” In a series that looks like it will be tight, the little things could determine who comes out on top.
3. Which manager is under more pressure to win?
TV: Dave Roberts. It’s got nothing to do with “narratives” and the worthless psychobabble that dominates “analysis” this time of year. Roberts gets less innings out of his starting pitchers than does Boone. He must run one or two more bullpen games, having already run three of them. The more buttons need to be pushed, the more likely you’ll be wrong. That’s pressure.
SA: I actually don't think either is under terrible pressure personally at this point—by getting here, they've almost certainly both secured their jobs moving forward—but organizationally, the Yankees' window seems shorter, since Soto hits free agency as soon as the World Series ends.
EB: Dave Roberts. The fact that he's yet to win a World Series in a full season is still a mark on his record with the Dodgers. Yes, much of that has been out of his control, but it's nonetheless a piece of his legacy. This group was always expected to play for a championship this year. (That standard was complicated by injuries but certainly not compromised by them.) Making it to the World Series was always the goal. To satisfy the pressure, then, Roberts will have to actually win.
WL: Dave Roberts has the readymade excuse of having a terribly depleted pitching staff, which he’s managed magnificently just to get here. This may be Aaron Boone’s best shot at getting a championship in the Bronx, especially considering Juan Soto might head south to Queens in the offseason.
NS: Aaron Boone. It came in a pandemic-shortened season at a neutral site with limited fan attendance, but Roberts still gets (and deserves) credit for guiding Los Angeles to the 2020 title. While Dodgers fans have grown antsy at having so many great seasons fall short during this decade-plus long run, the Yankees have more urgency to end their 15-year championship drought.
4. What's your World Series prediction?
TV: Yankees in 7. Flip a coin. There is no obvious edge here. (The Dodgers are the better base running team, but I don’t see that as a deciding factor.) Both offenses can be relentless—the two most disciplined lineups in baseball. Both bullpens are excellent—where most of these series are decided. The difference? Read below.
SA: Dodgers in 6. I think their lineup and bullpen are a bit deeper, which will make up for a more tattered rotation.
EB: Dodgers in 6. These clubs are so closely matched that it can easily go either way, but while the Yankees do have some clear advantages over the Dodgers, L.A.'s bullpen, slugging and base running push it over the edge for me.
WL: Yankees in 6. In a postseason that’s been dominated by bullpen talk, Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón have the talent to get through Los Angeles’s lineup a couple of times mostly unscathed. And if New York’s big three sluggers can get support from the rest of the lineup, the Dodgers’ bullpen will be hard-pressed to continue its dominance.
NS: Dodgers in 7. Yamamoto has been sharp his last two times out, and threw 73 pitches in his most recent start. He'll provide the boost this starting rotation needs to save the bullpen some extra wear-and-tear, making Roberts's life much easier in the late innings.
5. Who do you think will win World Series MVP?
TV: Giancarlo Stanton. It’s his time. He had the fourth longest wait among active players to get to the World Series, and now it begins in the ballpark where he went to games as a kid, where he won the All-Star MVP and where he has the second-highest slugging percentage of anyone in Dodger Stadium history. He’s not chasing. He looks like he’s on a Corey Seager-type run.
SA: Shohei Ohtani. In his worst NLCS game, he reached base twice.
EB: Sometimes the most obvious choice is the best one. Come on: Shohei Ohtani. And I'm still holding out hope that we'll get to see him make a miracle bullpen appearance.
WL: I’m going to go down the board and pick Jazz Chisholm Jr. Is this because I’m foolishly sticking with a bold prediction I made at the start of the playoffs? Perhaps. But his poor postseason showing to this point would only greater accentuate a strong World Series where he’s the most likely Yankee to make a difference with his bat and his speed.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as World Series Roundtable: Expert Predictions, MVP Picks, X-Factors.
