Picking a winner in the first game of the World Series is a bit tricky when the teams at hand haven’t seen much of the pitchers they’re about to face, which is the case when it comes to the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies.
Very few Phillies have had more than a couple at-bats in their careers against Astros ace Justin Verlander. The ones who have, had very marginal success. As a team, Philadelphia’s hitters are a career .184 against the likely AL Cy Young winner.
Likewise, there isn’t a single Astros player with more than eight at-bats against Phillies starter Aaron Nola. They’ve hit just .130 against in him in their careers.
Batters will get very familiar with these two over the course of the series and maybe even get a read on their stuff. But in Game 1, after a five-day layoff since the end of the league championship series, I give the advantage to the pitchers and expect more of the same.
When these teams met in the final series of the regular season, Nola pitched a shutout through 6 2/3 innings of the first game with nine strikeouts and just two hits allowed. Verlander pitched a hitless five innings with 10 strikeouts in the second game. Each bullpen completed the shutouts.
If these staffs bring that type of stuff into Game 1, a winner might not be decided until the final innings. And though Nola — a full decade younger than Verlander — could potentially take his start deeper into the game, I expect Philadelphia’s bullpen to crack before Houston’s.
If the game is decided by the starters, I still expect it to be Houston’s lineup to come through first. Though Nola was terrific through his first two starts of the postseason, he allowed six runs and two homers through 4 2/3 innings of his last start in Game 2 of their series against the Padres. Verlander, on the other hand, allowed just one run and three hits in six innings against the Yankees in his last start.
Both offenses pack plenty of power, so all of this could very easily and quickly go out of the window once the game starts. And not since 2017 has Game 1 of the World Series seen fewer than eight runs scored, but I’ll lean on the recent trends and plus money for my favorite pick in this one, which is under 6.5 runs at +100 odds.
Prince’s Pick: Astros win 4-2
Prince’s Prop: Justin Verlander over 5.5 strikeouts (-160)
