The proportion of the world engulfed by conflict has grown 65% – equivalent to nearly double the size of India – over the past three years, according to a new report.
Ukraine, Myanmar, the Middle East and a “conflict corridor” around Africa’s Sahel region have seen wars and unrest spread and intensify since 2021, according to the latest Conflict Intensity Index (CII), published by risk analysts Verisk Maplecroft.
While there was a lull in the levels of conflict globally during the Covid-19 pandemic, experts say there has been a rising trend of violence for at least a decade, while many longstanding crises continue unabated.
Hugo Brennan, research director at Verisk Maplecroft, said recent conflicts have had far-reaching impacts on businesses, economic growth and food security, with supply chains disturbed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which endangered grain exports to the Middle East and Africa, and attacks by Houthi rebels from Yemen on Red Sea shipping.
“Conflict risks are increasing, they have for the last few years and global businesses need to think about that. You can look at international media and think: ‘I don’t have a factory in Sudan, it does not affect me,’ but because of the supply chain impacts, a conflict in a faraway place can impact you,” he said.
According to the report, the equivalent of 6.15m sq km (2.4m sq miles) is afflicted by fighting between or within states, meaning 4.6% of the world’s landmass is now affected by conflict compared with 2.8% in 2021, with the number of deaths in conflict rising by 29%. In total, 27 countries, including Ecuador, Colombia, India, Indonesia and Thailand, have experienced a significant increase in risk since on the CII since 2021.
The report identified a “conflict corridor” covering the Sahel and Horn of Africa, from Mali to Somalia, where it said violence had doubled in the past three years. It said 86% of Burkina Faso was now embroiled in conflict, while Sudan and Ethiopia have seen large-scale outbreaks of violence.
Angela Rosales, CEO of SOS Children’s Villages International, which helps children separated from their families, said 470 million children worldwide are affected by wars, including in Ukraine, Sudan, Gaza and Lebanon, with serious impacts that go beyond death and injury.
“Children in conflict-affected areas are at risk of losing family care if their homes are destroyed, parents are killed or if they become separated when fleeing violence,” she said. “They are especially vulnerable to exploitation, enslavement, trafficking and abuse.”
Prof Clionadh Raleigh, president of civilian harm monitor Acled (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data), said that while new conflicts were emerging, with a 27% rise in violent events since the Ukraine war, older conflicts were also persisting.
“There are far fewer conflicts ending or becoming less intense and there are far more of them cropping up,” she said, highlighting that in countries such as Myanmar, with numerous armed rebellions involving smaller groups, it was difficult to reach an all-encompassing peace settlement.
“These smaller conflicts, they tend to be able to evolve, and they’re very flexible to the political system they find themselves in. So they can be very difficult to end.”
Raleigh said she was concerned that violence would only increase, partly because of tensions between Iran and Israel but also because there is a trend of perpetrators of coups and assassinations, or militias using violence to impose power, being able to act without facing consequences.
Iain Overton, executive director of Action on Armed Violence, a charity that monitors civilian harm, said there are trends of rising violence if compared with 2010, which included highs during the middle of the decade in Syria and Iraq.
He noted that compared to the mid-2010s, when much of the violence involved non-state armed groups who relied on small arms and improvised explosives, there was a more recent rise in violence involving clashing states.
“The 2020s are going to be defined as the decade of the airstrike and particularly the drone strike,” said Overton.
