France is miles ahead of the other semifinalists to win its third World Cup title. France entered as the pre-tournament favorite on Kalshi and has stayed there.
There is a near 20% margin on Kalshi’s World Cup market between France and England, which sits with the second strongest price.
2026 World Cup Winner - Kalshi
- France 39.6%
- England 21.7 %
- Spain 21.4%
- Argentina 17.4%
Trading $10 offers a plus money return across the board, with France profiting $14.21 if they win, England at $33.68, Spain at $34.25, and Argentina with $44.31.
France’s domination
France has won all six matches outright and posted the second-highest goal total of the tournament with 16 while conceding just two. They average 60% possession, took 110 shots (47 on target), which is in line with their offensive pressure. France won all but one game by multiple scores.
Could this finally be England’s year?
England generates most of its threat inside the box, with 71 of its 94 shot attempts coming from inside the penalty area and 39 of them being on goal. England won all but one match outright except for a 0-0 draw vs. Ghana in the group stage.
Spain locking down opponents
Spain boasts the tournament’s best defense by a wide margin. Spain has conceded only one goal and has applied significant pressure by forcing 289 turnovers. While the 11-goal total sits at the bottom of the semifinal field, its 110 shot total is in line with France at the top. Accuracy is the main issue with those attempts, with just 40 (36.36%) of them being on target. If it beats France, it will be the favorite to win the title.
Can los campeones del mundo overcome one more hurdle?
Argentina has fought an uphill battle since coming out of the group stage. Argentina flew through its opening three matches with an 8-1 margin. It's been scare after scare since, needing comeback wins and extra time goals to move on to the next round.
By the numbers, Argentina has still produced powerhouse numbers with 98 shots, with 41 on goal, and leading the field with 17 goals. Defensively, they are second to Spain in the semifinal with 258 forced turnovers and lead the field with 1,421 defensive pressures applied.
Use the Kalshi promo code SIBONUS when you sign up to unlock a $20 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $10 in trades.
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