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Politics
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Woeful Victorian poll for state Coalition; Victoria and NSW to lose federal seats as WA gains

James Ross/AAP

A Victorian state Resolve poll for The Age, conducted with the federal May and June Resolve polls from a sample of about 1,000, gave Labor 41% of the primary vote (down one since April), the Coalition just 26% (down four), the Greens 15% (up five), independents 12% (steady) and others 6% (up one).

Resolve does not give two party estimates until near elections, but The Poll Bludger estimated this would be 62-38 or 63-37 to Labor, a three or four point gain for Labor since April.

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