What a weekend of golf! Before I get into my WM Phoenix Open betting tips it would be criminal not to congratulate Justin Rose on a record-breaking win and also acknowledge one of the strangest playoffs in our sport's history.
Despite plenty of evidence pointing towards a Justin Rose challenge, I decided to go in a different direction at the Farmers Insurance Open and this week I am doubling down with my top tip.
Scottie Scheffler headlines a stacked field at the WM Phoenix Open, and has a great chance considering he has won twice and come third in his four most recent tournament starts, but I think I'd rather hunt out some value down the board.
Despite a stone-cold putter, I believe this two-time winner of the WM Phoenix Open is on the cusp of yet another PGA Tour victory - but who do our expert panel of betting tipsters think will win at TPC Scottsdale? Let's find out...
WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips 2026
Top Tip: Hideki Matsuyama To Win (+2500) @ BetMGM
Yes - it's Hideki... for a second week in a row. Despite not challenging Rose, Matsuyama had a good tournament and now has two top-13 finishes to kick off in 2026.
The former Masters Champion has won at TPC Scottsdale twice, been runner-up once and finished in the top-5 a total of four times. He also won the Hero World Challenge in December (read into that what you will).
His Strokes Gained: Approach numbers were good at Torrey Pines, ranking 10th in the field, but his ball striking prowess was never really a concern for me as Matsuyama has proven season after season that he is an absolute flusher.
His work on the greens is concerning, ranking 58th for SG: Putting last week, but we know that Hideki always turns up with a win at the start of the season and often produces weeks where his putter is red hot... so, let's hope it warms up by Thursday.
Next Best: Maverick McNealy To Win (+2800) @ BetMGM
Maverick McNealy is an interesting option this week, having finished 10th at Torrey Pines and 24th tin Hawaii. He has started well in both events, with a 65 and 66 respectively, but closing tournaments is another matter.
With just one PGA Tour win, at the 2024 RSM Classic, I would suggest that McNealy should have won more based on his undeniable talent, however a runner-up and three third place finishes last season suggests he is often close on the right course.
That course could be TPC Scottsdale, as McNealy has finished T6 and T9 in his last two starts. If he can continue building on an impressive start to 2026, I think he challenges again at a reasonable price.
Value Bet: Sahith Theegala To Win (+4500) @ BetMGM
Sahith Theegala appears to have put a pretty dismal 2025 season behind him with a couple of impressive performances to kick off the new year.
A T31 in Hawaii was a modest start, but following that with a T8 and a T7 shows the improvement I was hoping to see as he heads into an event where he has typically played well in the past.
Theegala has a T3 and a 5th place finish at TPC Scottsdale in his last four appearances and has a T6 at Bay Hill which offers some correlation in terms of the profile of winners recently.
After gaining strokes on the field throughout the bag last week, I can't see how Theegala isn't in the mix at the WM Phoenix Open.
Value Bet 2: Hao Tong Li To Win (+8000) @ BetMGM
For anyone tuning in to Kick Point Tour Issue this week, you will already know that I have an unhealthy obsession with Hao Tong Li.
The DP World Tour graduate has started life on the PGA Tour in style, banking a T8 and T11 finish in his two most recent starts.
The four-time DP World Tour winner ranked 7th for SG: Tee To Green at the Farmers Insurance Open, on a tough golf course, so I'd expect him to relish the challenge posed by TPC Scottsdale.
Li competed valiantly at the Open Championship in 2025 when chasing Scottie Scheffler, so we know he won't be intimidated by a strong field, and at a venue with more personality than most I can see Hao Tong Li thriving.
Pick One: Maverick McNealy To Win (+2800) @ BetMGM
McNealy has had a good start to 2026 with a T24 at the Sony and a T10 last week at Torrey Pines.
The former World No.1 amateur has excellent form here with a T9 last year and a T6 in 2024, and with four top-threes on the PGA Tour last year he is a man who finds himself in contention a fair amount.
He hasn’t won since November 2024 so I feel he could be overdue, especially after going close a number of times last year.
Pick Two: Christiaan Bezuidenhout To Win (+6600) @ BetMGM
The solid South African is on a strong run of form right now, having made every single cut since he missed the weekend of the John Deere Classic in early July.
Bezuidenhout was T4th here last time out so I am hoping a return to TPC Scottsdale can be the catalyst for another go at winning his maiden PGA Tour title.
He has posted respectable T38 and T27 finishes on the PGA Tour to start the year so far after successive top-10s to finish 2025.
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Pick One: Cameron Young To Win (+2200) @ BetMGM
Finishing T22nd at the Farmers Insurance Open last week, Young comes into the WM Phoenix Open replicating his excellent 2025 form that featured a first PGA Tour title.
Possessing incredible distance off the tee, as well as excellent putting stats, I feel that the American is the nearest contender to Scheffler this week, especially as Young finished T12th here last year, as well T8th in 2024, showing consistent course form.
Pick Two: Sahith Theegala To Win (+4500) Or Top-5 Finish @ BetMGM
Like Young, Sahith Theegala possesses excellent course form at TPC Scottsdale, finishing solo fifth in 2024 and T3rd in 2022. In fact, he’s yet to miss a cut at the tournament.
What I like about the American is his recent results, which is showcased by a T8th at The American Express and a T7th at the Farmers Insurance Open. He seems to be re-finding his game in 2026 after struggles in 2025, making him a strong option this week.
Pick One: Scottie Scheffler To Win (+240) @ BetMGM
Who else? The man is a +240 favorite for a reason.
His short-game was out of this world when he won the American Express, and I don't expect it to drop off at a place he's already won at twice.
It might not be the most exciting choice, but there are literally no logical arguments to make against Scheffler winning again.
Plus, his odds remain in the positives for now so it makes sense to back the World No.1 early.
Pick Two: Michael Thorbjornsen To Win (+4500) @ BetMGM
If there is anyone who might be able to upset the applecart, I wonder if Thorbjornsen could be that guy.
He's played really well in two TGL starts, which tells me he's in full control of his game and should be building confidence, and his T18th at the Farmers Insurance Open was another positive sign.
The monster-hitting American has been slightly hit-and-miss in terms of putting a complete performance down each week, but if he can sew it all together at TPC Scottsdale then he has a great chance of nudging Scottie aside.
Golf Monthly Expert Betting Panel Winning Picks (Since Start Of 2025)
Player |
Event |
Price |
GM Staff Member |
Richard Mansell |
Porsche Singapore Classic 2025 |
+6000 |
Matt Cradock |
Sami Valimaki |
RSM Classic 2025 |
+5500 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Patrick Reed |
Dubai Desert Classic 2026 |
+4000 |
Elliott Heath |
Eugenio Chacarra |
Hero Indian Open 2025 |
+3500 |
Elliott Heath |
Sergio Garcia |
LIV Golf Hong Kong 2025 |
+2200 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Ludvig Aberg |
Genesis Invitational 2025 |
+2200 |
Matt Cradock |
Laurie Canter |
Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship 2025 |
+2200 |
Jonny Leighfield/Matt Cradock |
Matt Fitzpatrick |
DP World Tour Championship 2025 |
+1600 |
Matt Cradock |
David Puig |
BMW Australian PGA Championship 2025 |
+1400 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Tommy Fleetwood |
Tour Championship 2025 |
+1200 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Ben Griffin |
World Wide Technology Championship 2025 |
+1200 |
Baz Plummer/Jonny Leighfield |
Joaquin Niemann |
LIV Golf UK 2025 |
+900 |
Matt Cradock |
Tyrrell Hatton |
Hero Dubai Desert Classic 2025 |
+900 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Joaquin Niemann |
LIV Golf Virginia 2025 |
+750 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Rory McIlroy |
The Masters 2025 |
+650 |
Baz Plummer |
Tommy Fleetwood |
DP World India Championship 2025 |
+650 |
Baz Plummer/Jonny Leighfield |
Scottie Scheffler |
PGA Championship 2025 |
+400 |
Matt Cradock/Elliott Heath |
Rory McIlroy |
Amgen Irish Open 2025 |
+400 |
Jonny Leighfield |
