It was purely coincidence that on Friday morning two ministers in the New South Wales government appeared at the opening of a new $341m hospital in Concord alongside the Drummoyne MP John Sidoti.
But the timing was fascinating.
Sidoti is currently under investigation by the state’s Independent Commission Against Corruption. A former minister in Gladys Berejiklian’s government, he moved to the crossbench when the watchdog revealed the terms of its investigation in March last year.
In a normal parliamentary term, it would have been a death knell. Sidoti maintains his innocence, of course, but as a host of former MPs will tell you (often while privately advocating for the watchdog to be brought to heel) an Icac investigation rarely bodes well for the target’s career prospects.
But into the fourth year of the third term of this Coalition government, Sidoti’s star is rising once again.
Why? Because this week another of Berejiklian’s former ministers, Gareth Ward, was charged by NSW police over allegations of sexual abuse against a man and a 17-year-old boy dating back several years.
Ward moved to the crossbench in May after he revealed he was the subject of a police investigation. He has denied the allegations and indicated he will be fighting the charges.
But after the charges were laid on Tuesday he was quickly given an ultimatum by premier Dominic Perrottet: resign or face a motion that would “remove him from the parliament”.
What exactly he meant by “remove” became the subject of some dispute. By the next day the government was making a half-hearted attempt to claim the premier had not been suggesting Ward would be expelled from the parliament.
That isn’t true. Legal advice sought on Tuesday night makes clear the government had been considering expelling the MP, but was warned doing so posed a “significant risk” to the criminal case against him. It’s also understood significant angst was emanating from the Coalition backbench over the precedent that an expulsion motion would be set in circumstances where an MP had not been convicted of a crime.
So, Ward was suspended, meaning he can no longer attend the parliamentary precinct or visit schools. The government argues the suspension means Ward effectively stops acting as an MP for his electorate of Kiama.
He disagrees, and issued a statement shortly after the motion passed saying he would “continue to represent and lobby for my local community”.
In any case, he can no longer attend parliament to vote on bills, which matters for the premier as he attempts to guide his minority government to an election in 12 months.
Although the premier has a supply deal with three independent MPs, the government has often relied on both Ward and Sidoti to pass its legislation. The former voted with the government 23 times in divisions after he stood aside in May, and the government had been cautious about alienating him before the charges were laid this week.
Their unofficial buffer became more crucial after the government lost the seat of Bega in February’s byelection.
In February, the health minister, Brad Hazzard, responding to a question from Ward in parliament, called him “an incredible advocate for his local community”. As a former minister Ward had been an “extraordinary contributor to this place, the broader state and his local community”, he said. “Let that be clearly on the record.”
While Ward had friends and enemies on both sides of the aisle, the eagerness to keep him on side could come back to bite the government. This week the NSW upper house passed a motion seeking all ministerial communication with the MP in the 10 months since he moved to the crossbench. It could make for uncomfortable reading.
But back to Sidoti, whose vote has also been crucial, but less certain.
In December, Labor tried to block a bill which wound back pandemic-era workers’ compensation laws.
After negotiating with the Drummoyne MP, the opposition was hopeful, only for him to eventually take the government’s side. It’s widely understood that was after an agreement for funding in his electorate.
The bill passed by one vote. But Ward’s removal makes the numbers even tighter.
This week Labor, with the support of the crossbench, managed to pass a procedural motion allowing it to suspend standing and sessional orders and disrupt government business. This is inside baseball – but the fact they were able to get it up is an early sign of the new challenges facing the Coalition.
Which makes the timing of Friday’s hospital visit so interesting. Sidoti is the local MP and has a good relationship with Hazzard, so would have received an invite regardless of this week’s events.
But it’s certainly the first time in recent months that the government has advertised a public appearance with him. And Sidoti is not shy about the way he views parliament after being cast away from the Liberal party. In the lead up to the December vote, the number of MPs popping in to visit for the first time since the Icac drama broke was not lost on Sidoti. After spending so long in the wilderness, if the government wants his support, it will need to win it by stumping up for his electorate.
There is another element to this precarious numbers game.
For months the NSW Liberal party has been in conflict over federal preselections. The dispute may come to a head soon, with the possibility of a broad federal intervention still live. Caught up in that long-running dispute is the MP for Holsworthy, Melanie Gibbons, who has indicated she may quit politics if she is unsuccessful in gaining preselection for the federal seat of Hughes.
Either option is terrible for Perrottet – and much work is being done behind the scenes to stop it from happening – because this government needs another byelection like it needs a hole in the head. There are also rumours swirling that another senior NSW MP has indicated an interest in running in the federal seat of Parramatta.
