Mainstream parties in Kerala, much like their counterparts nationwide, take the lion’s share of seats, especially in Lok Sabha elections. However, this trend has become more pronounced in recent times for various factors for each party, including increasing their vote share unlike in Assembly elections.
The Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] is contesting 15 out of 20 seats, leaving four to its traditional Left partner, the Communist Party of India (CPI) and one to its fledgling constituent the Kerala Congress (M). The party seems to have two main objectives: to get more MPs to maintain its status as a national party and to become a significant force in case the INDIA bloc comes to power, reminiscent of its 2004 success when the party alone secured 43 seats across the country.
This time, the party has not allocated any seats to several partners, leading to discontent among other parties such as the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Janata Dal (Secular). Even the minor party Indian National League (INL) sought a seat to no avail.
Quite interestingly, CPI(M)-backed Independents are contesting on the the party symbol now. K.M. Hamza, a former State secretary of the IUML, is fielded in Ponnani, and Joice George is contesting from Idukki. In 2019, the party supported Independents P.V. Anvar in Ponnani and Mr. George in Idukki.
In 2014, the CPI(M), however, displayed magnanimity towards the Janata Dal(S) by ceding the Kottayam seat but denied the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) the Kollam seat, leading to a realignment of forces in coalition politics. Eventually, the RSP joined the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).
In the run-up to the 2009 polls, a similar prequel was played out when the Janata Dal (S) was denied the Kozhikode seat, resulting in a split in the party and its State president M.P. Veerendrakumar forming the Socialist Janata Democratic (SJD) and later jumping on to the UDF bandwagon.
This realignment, perhaps was reflected in the 2011 Assembly polls, with the UDF narrowly defeating the LDF by four seats, marking it one of the closest in the State’s electoral history in the recent past.
BJP’s vote share
Incidentally, both the Congress and the CPI(M), leading the two major fronts, have not obtained more than 30% of the total votes individually in the last three Assembly polls. The surge in BJP’s vote share and seat allocation with partners have been attributed to this phenomenon.
In the 2014 polls, the Congress offered Veerandrakumar the Palakkad Lok Sabha seat, which he lost. Later, the SJD merged with the Janata Dal (United) and subsequently shifted to the LDF camp, but failed to get a seat in the Lok Sabha in 2019.
The Congress faced its worst performance in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls when it failed to win any seats. The only seat won by the UDF was by the Indian Union Muslim League in Ponnani. However, the Congress bounced back in the subsequent 2009 Lok Sabha polls, winning 13 of 17 seats contested, securing 40.1% of votes. The CPI(M) received 30.5% of the votes, winning four seats.
With the BJP crossing its vote share beyond 10.5% in the State following the Narendra Modi wave in the Lok Sabha polls of 2014, the Congress witnessed a decline in its vote share to 31.5%, while that of the CPI(M) fell to 21.8%.
The 2019 Lok Sabha polls held against the backdrop of Sabarimala protests and the Rahul Gandhi factor helped the Congress to secure a vote share of 37.5%. The CPI(M)’s vote share was 26%, and the vote share of party-backed Joice George and the late actor Innocent was included in the Independents category.
In 2019, the BJP’s share rose to 13% though it contested 15 seats. Its ally the Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) contested five seats and received 1.88% of total votes. This time, the BDJS is contesting two seats.
Another interesting factor in 2019 was that 11 constituencies – Alappuzha, Attingal, Chalakudy, Kasaragod, Kottayam, Kozhikode, Mavelikara, Palakkad, Pathanamthitta, Thiruvananthapuram, and Thrissur – figured in the close contest list, indicating the Congress had eaten into the LDF vote bank. Close contests are parliamentary constituencies that have a victory margin less than third positioned candidates.
