With his popularity soaring, the Prime Minister was spotted at the Enmore Theatre this week enjoying a Gang of Youths concert — he was wearing a Joy Division T-shirt and chugged a beer to the rapturous cheers of the audience.
The first Resolve poll since the election has Anthony Albanese as the overwhelmingly preferred PM by 55 per cent, compared to Peter Dutton's 17 per cent.
In his seat of Grayndler, walk down any street and you'll find a tote bag or tee emblazoned with Albo's face — or a beer can.
"I backed Albo before he backed himself," says Pat McInerney, founder of Willie The Boatman, a craft brewery in Sydney's inner-west.
He created and named the Albo Pale Ale in 2014, alongside a range of beers named after "local legends" — or the local MP, in this case.
"The Albo Pale Ale was possibly the most drunk beer in Sydney's inner-west leading up to and just after the election," he claims.
The honeymoon period
Political science expert Ian McAllister from the Australian National University says new prime ministers typically experienced "enhanced popularity" for their first 100 days in office.
"I did some research looking at the honeymoon period for Australian prime ministers and I calculated that it's 94 days," Professor McAllister says.
After that, the only way to go is down: "The only real question is if it's a rapid or a slow decline."
For some leaders, like Paul Keating, it was a quick fall from the top, while others, like John Howard, experienced their popularity tapering off over successive elections.
"The only thing that will arrest that decline is winning another election."
If Professor McAllister is correct, Mr Albanese can expect his popularity to drop from right about now — August 23 marked 94 days from the election.
Narelle Miragliotta, senior lecturer in Australian politics at Monash University, says Mr Albanese's poll results could be interpreted a few different ways. For example, it may reflect Mr Dutton's poor standing with the public more than the Prime Minister's popularity.
"A second interpretation is that the Prime Minister is actually perceived by the electorate as performing strongly in his new role," Dr Miragliotta says.
"Remember, the electorate was not exactly captivated by Albanese when he was opposition leader. It may be that on closer inspection, the electorate is willing to give him the benefit of the doubt."
How does Albo compare to past leaders?
According to The Australian Election Study, Mr Albanese's popularity is midway between the most popular Labor leader since 1987 (Kevin Rudd during his first stint as prime minister) and the least popular, Bill Shorten — also Mr Albanese's immediate predecessor.
"The mark-1 version of Kevin Rudd was really very popular," Professor McAllister says, "and he was as popular as Bob Hawke — one of the most popular prime ministers in the last half century or so".
He adds that Mr Shorten was really very unpopular but, surprisingly, Mr Albanese is only slightly more popular than Julia Gillard, who "was actually reasonably popular, taking into account the fact she was leading a minority government".
Scott Morrison was the least popular Liberal leader since 1987 at the 2022 election, having seen a drastic decline in his popularity since he became prime minister in 2019.
Mr Morrison's spike in popularity in the early days of the pandemic could be attributed to the "rally 'round the flag effect", which can occur during times of crisis.
"What we've seen over the previous year has been the consequence of the poor performance around the vaccine rollout," Professor McAllister explains.
"Much of that was shifted back to Morrison … we saw people identify him by the failure of dealing with the second stage of the pandemic."
Narelle Miragliotta says the electorate has "very little reason, at this point at least, to be very disappointed by the current prime minister."
"While it is early days, Anthony Albanese hasn't misstepped, and seems to have grown in confidence."
What could burst Albo's popularity bubble?
Dr Narelle Miragliotta says managing a big agenda and complex parliament will be challenging for Mr Albanese.
"The Prime Minister will want to avoid delays in moving forward with the government's agenda, but they also won't want to appear too conciliatory," she says.
Professor McAllister says something dramatic — like a particularly difficult budget — could result in a popularity dive for the Prime Minister.
"Voters will remember for about 12 months," he says, "after that, it tends to fade away in terms of affecting the popularity of the prime minister and voting intention."
"That's one of the reasons why in the first budget of the electoral cycle, the government will tend to do the fairly nasty things they have to do."
Mr Albanese's first budget is due in October.
According to Professor McAllister, the second budget will consolidate whatever they did in the first budget, then the third budget will hand money back to voters.
"By that stage, voters will have, by and large, forgotten about the first budget."
Other things that may impact Mr Albanese's popularity during his tenure include how he handles the cost of living crisis, scandals and ministerial resignations, and state elections.
Only two things matter – trust and decisiveness
According to international research, there are four qualities that voters look for in their leaders — trust and integrity, decisiveness, compassion and competency.
But only two of these qualities matter in terms of shifting votes.
"One is trust," Professor McAllister says. "If voters see a leader they can trust, they're more likely to vote for them.
"And the other is, they want a leader who's decisive, charismatic, inspiring – someone who is going to do things."
Mr Albanese's appearance at a Gang of Youths concert – or "Young, Hot Albo" cans of beer – fall under compassion, as signs of empathy and relatability.
"People are not against it, but it's not actually what they're looking for in a political leader," Professor McAllister says.
"In terms of shifting votes? It actually doesn't matter."
