The U.S. economy contracted by 1.6% in the first quarter of this year, setting the stage for a recession if economic output declines again in the second quarter, said economist Anil K. Puri, director of the Woods Center at Cal State Fullerton.
It may be a bit too early to tell whether we'll get there, Puri said. But the higher interest rates, supply shortages and high inflation that have flared up in the last two years are good indicators that a recession may be on the horizon.
But there's no one formula for triggering a recession. Puri said that each of the previous U.S. recessions — which have struck every 6½ years or so since 1945, according to reporting from The Times — has been preceded by its own unique circumstances. Those circumstances have also affected the duration and severity of the downturns.
