At halftime of the Stanford versus Arizona game on Thursday night, we got our first glimpse into how teams might be seeded in this year’s NCAA Tournament for women’s college basketball.
The NCAA’s Division I Women’s Basketball Committee does this twice a year. It’s sort of like those weekly College Football Playoff reveal shows, and it gives us an idea of how the committee might seed teams come March. While bracketology projections and power rankings are fun to debate, this reveal gives folks real insight into what the committee thinks.
In women’s basketball, being a top 16 seed in the NCAA Tournament is crucial, because those teams get to host first and second round games at their home venues, giving the higher seed a coveted homecourt advantage.
🔝1️⃣6️⃣ 𝚛𝚎𝚟𝚎𝚊𝚕𝚎𝚍#NCAAWBB pic.twitter.com/a8Keu0NA0Y
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessWBB) February 10, 2023
The committee’s second reveal will be on Feb. 23, during halftime of the South Carolina versus Tennessee game. And the full and final bracket will be unveiled on March 12 – an unofficial holiday, better known as Selection Sunday.
Speaking of the Gamecocks, let’s get into the winners and losers of the first reveal.
Winner: Villanova
Members of the committee are big fans of Maddy Siegrist, apparently. She, of course – with a scoring average of 28.5 points per game – is a big reason why the Wildcats are 21-4 this season and ranked 15th in the latest AP Top 25 Poll.
The committee slotted Villanova in at No. 15 as well, making them the third highest-ranked No. 4 seed in the field. This runs counter to what ESPN had projected for the Wildcats, tabbing them as a No. 6 seed.
This could be a sign as to how much the committee values the NET this year, where the Wildcats are 11th. The committee only included two teams in its top 16 – Maryland and North Carolina – that are not in the top 16 in NET.
As the 15th ranked team, the Wildcats don’t have a large margin for error, but they’ll have a chance to improve their standing. They still have a home game against an injury-plagued UConn team, and have games against top-60 NET teams in Seton Hall and St. Johns’s.
Nova on the 4 line is VERY telling. They have no losses outside the top 25 of the NET but their best wins are Marquette, Creighton, USF. Committee really values the Big East. Wouldn't be shocked if Marquette's win last night boosted them up there.
— Russell Steinberg (@Russ_Steinberg) February 10, 2023
Winner: South Carolina
To quote D’Angelo Barksdale: the king stay the king.
Last year’s national champions are still undefeated this season and was blessed by the committee with the No. 1 overall seed. Should South Carolina hold on to that spot, it will not only ensure that the Gamecocks play their first and second round games at home, but they’ll play the second weekend of the tournament at the Greenville Regional, which is just 100 miles from the Gamecocks’ campus in Columbia, S.C. There will likely be a ton of garnet-and-black in Greenville during the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.
Not only are the Gamecocks 11-0 in the SEC this season, but they own non-conference wins over fellow top-16 seeds in Maryland, Stanford and UConn. It’s hard to point out a flaw in South Carolina’s resume and they’ve been rewarded for scheduling tough non-conference opponents.
Loser: LSU
You know who didn’t schedule any challenging non-conference games? Kim Mulkey.
And so, despite LSU being undefeated and being led by one of the best and most exciting players in college basketball in Angel Reese, they are not a No. 1 seed.
The committee placed the Tigers fifth in the rankings, making them the highest-ranked No. 2 seed. While that might sound nice, it means the Tigers are in a regional with UConn – who aims to be somewhat healthier by March – and it means the Tigers have to go to Seattle should they advance in the tournament. For fans in Baton Rouge, a drive or flight to Greenville would be easier.
While LSU is third in NET this season, their opponent’s average win percentage is 48.2% according to HerHoopStats, which ranks 197th in the country. While South Carolina was playing against fellow top 16 teams, LSU schedules games against Montana State, Lamar, Houston Christian and Western Carolina — not exactly a group of heavy hitters.
LSU has a chance to improve – or harm – its resume Sunday, when it faces fellow undefeated South Carolina.
when i count my blessings, i count coming to LSU twice🙏🏽
— Angel Reese (@Reese10Angel) February 10, 2023
Loser: The Big 12
The Big Ten led all conferences with teams in the committee’s top 16 Thursday night with five. That group includes a No. 1 seed in Indiana and a No. 2 seed in Iowa. After the Big Ten, the ACC has four teams in, and the Pac-12, Big East and SEC each have two teams.
And then there’s the Big 12, which had one team in the top 16 in Texas, slotted at No. 12, making the Longhorns the lowest-ranked No. 3 seed. And Texas is by no means a lock to hold onto this spot. The Longhorns already have six losses and could stack up a few more. While Texas has won six in a row, it wasn’t that long ago that it suffered underwhelming losses to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
Despite Taylor Robertson’s record-breaking season and its No. 16 spot in the AP Poll, Oklahoma wasn’t included in this top 16 reveal.
And so, there’s a very real chance that the Big 12 might not have a team hosting first round games this year. If they do, it’ll be by a program that is leaving after next season.
