As the countdown to the 2024 season gathers pace, Cyclingnews looks at some of the key storylines that will define the coming year in cycling.
Even after Visma's loss of a key rider in Primož Roglič - the biggest transfer news of the last few months, UAE Team Emirates and Visma-Lease a Bike will likely remain the dominant two teams in 2024. However, Bora-Hansgrohe, who nabbed Roglič, have a probable infusion of capital from Red Bull and are striving to overtake them, as are Lidl-Trek, who invested heavily in the transfer market.
The shift of riders across teams doesn't always lead to a like-for-like change in rankings, but Cyclingnews looked at each rider's 2023 individual ranking points and tallied up the top 20 riders of each of the new teams to calculate a pseudo-current ranking.
Crunching the numbers doesn't reveal all, but it does give some key points of discussion and prediction for the 2024 WorldTour.
The 2024 team rosters are not entirely complete, and there is a long list of riders still to announce their teams for the year, but the majority of the teams for the important players have been decided.
Bora-Hansgrohe the big winners
Of all the teams in the WorldTour, Bora-Hansgrohe stand to benefit most from the influx of riders for 2024 - most notably, Primož Roglič from Visma. The German team had slipped from fourth in the world to 10th between 2022 and 2023 and needed that boost. The inclusion of just these two riders brings them back on par with Soudal-Quickstep just below the top two powerhouses.
It's not just Grand Tours, either. Adding Sam Welsford as a sprint replacement for Sam Bennett, who departed for Decathlon-AG2R La Mondiale gives the team more opportunities in the Classics and is a nice complement to Jordi Meeus.
The German team made smart choices this year - even if they did let Cian Uijtdebroeks slip through their fingers - and could well shake up the UCI Team Rankings by season's end.
Lidl-Trek gain depth
Lidl-Trek could surpass Soudal-Quickstep and Ineos Grenadiers and join Bora-Hansgrohe in the top four in 2024 after signing a raft of riders who were successful in 2023, including Andrea Bagioli from Soudal-Quickstep, Tao Geoghegan Hart from Ineos, and Jonathan Milan from Bahrain Victorious.
They've also picked up some solid riders in Patrick Konrad from Bora-Hansgrohe, Simone Consonni from Cofidis and underrated riders Carlos Verona from Movistar and Sam Oomen from Jumbo-Visma. The addition of Tim Declercq, a key part of Quickstep's team in both the Spring Classics and Grand Tours, is another benefit to their hiring spree.
Lidl-Trek relied heavily on Mads Pedersen in 2023 but will have many more options this season as well as looking forward to seeing how high Tour de Suisse winner Mattias Skjelmose can climb. Geoghegan Hart is a fine addition to a Grand Tour squad as a complement to Giulio Ciccone, and Milan, more of a pure sprinter will take the pressure off Pedersen, freeing him up to cherry-pick stages and focus on the Classics.
Astana bank on Cavendish
Astana have been in the basement of the WorldTour team's rankings since before the start of the current three-year cycle, with their demise dating back to the loss of Premier Tech as a sponsor before the 2022 season and seeing most of their hitters leave for greener pastures.
Having languished in 21st in 2022, the team picked up Mark Cavendish in hopes of him elevating the team by breaking the Tour de France stage win record. An unlucky crash and the debacle surrounding Miguel Angel Lopez meant the team could barely gain one spot this season.
Enter Quickstep's focus on Remco Evenepoel's Tour de France debut. A restructuring of the team freed up lead-out expert Michael Mørkøv, who Astana signed along with Cav's former lead-out Mark Renshaw as a coach. Astana further bolstered their rosters with attacking riders like Ide Schelling and Davide Ballerini, and climber Henok Mulubrhan.
If Astana can't make this year's lineup work with enough firepower to send them up the rankings at least four spots, then they're doing something very wrong.
Bahrain's talent drain
Bahrain Victorious suffered a big mental blow with the death of Gino Mäder during the Tour de Suisse, and 2023 not only deflated their sails but ended with the cycling equivalent of the brain drain, with Mikel Landa departing for Soudal-Quickstep and Milan heading to Lidl-Trek. The two riders were responsible for 20% of the team's points last year, and their recruiting efforts haven't filled the hole. Bahrain Victorious signed two neo-pros in Alberto Bruttomesso and Finlay Pickering, and Torstein Træen from Uno-X.
All hope is not lost, however. The team will rely heavily on Pello Bilbao, Matej Mohoric and Damiano Caruso in the coming year and have Giro d'Italia stage winner Santiago Buitrago as a GC hopeful.
Jack Haig is also another contender if he can shake off the terrible luck suffered last year. They'll be fairly safe from relegation after ending 2023 in sixth but will need to save up for the next transfer season if they want to challenge for the top of the rankings.
Groupama-FDJ to regroup after Pinot retires
The French team lost their marquee rider in 2023 when Thibaut Pinot retired and additionally saw the departure of Michael Storer to Tudor Pro Cycling and Bruno Armirail to Decathlon AG2R. Armirail led the Giro d'Italia for two stages after a breakaway on stage 14 and landed his best-ever Grand Tour finish in 16th, while Storer won the Tour de l'Ain and has two Vuelta a España stages in his palmares.
The loss of sprinter Arnaud Démare in a mid-season transfer to Arkéa-Samsic was another major blow to the team, and they didn't manage to recruit any replacements at the same level. Sven Erik Bystrøm from Intermarché and Rémy Rochas from Cofidis are their top signings. That will leave a lot of pressure on David Gaudu, Valentin Madouas and Stefan Küng.
The team can look to the future, however, with Lenny Martinez showing great promise at the Vuelta a España with two days in the leader's jersey and a win in the CIC-Mont Ventoux.
Groupama-FDJ ended 2023 in seventh, but unless they can squeeze out some stellar rides they'll be fighting to stay in the top 10 teams.
Intermarché on a slippery slope
Intermarché made a big splash in 2022 with their fifth place in the UCI Team Rankings and high-profile results from Biniam Girmay, who made history as the first Black African winner of Gent-Wevelgem and then a stage of the Giro d'Italia. But since then, the Belgian team have failed to repeat that success, partly due to the departure of Alexander Kristoff to Uno-X. They fell to 14th in 2023 but the drop would have been much steeper had it not been for Rui Costa, who scored the most points for the team. However, the former world champion left for EF Education-EasyPost for 2024.
Intermarché-Wanty have not replaced Costa, bringing in three riders from the development team along with Gijs Van Hoecke from the defunct Human Powered Health squad, Kevin Colleoni from Jayco-AlUla and Vito Braet from Flanders-Baloise. The team ended 2023 in 14th and will have to fight for every point to avoid falling into the dreaded relegation zone.
Team dsm-firmenich-PostNL need more capital
The all lowercase shift in 2023 did dsm-firmenich no favours and while they're bringing in more capital they need more big names. Three of their four top scorers have left in 2024: Sam Welsford to Bora-Hansgrohe, Alberto Dainese to Tudor and the promising GC rider Andreas Leknessund to Uno-X. However, the acquisition of sprinter Fabio Jakobsen from Quickstep and Warren Barguil from Arkéa should keep the team on a level footing if all goes well.
Already 17th in the UCI rankings, the team will be relying heavily on Jakobsen to win Grand Tour stages and keep their WorldTour hopes afloat, which is a risky strategy. Even with Jakobsen, the relative point-earning power of their 2024 roster is well below the rest of the WorldTour teams. They ended the 2023 season in 17th and stand to get pushed down as Lotto Dstny and Israel-Premier Tech seem destined for WorldTour promotion in 2026.
Other notable changes
Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale should benefit from the hiring of Victor Lafay after finishing 18th in the 2023 team rankings.
Israel-Premier Tech look set to climb higher after signing Pascal Ackermann and Ethan Vernon, Lotto Dstny need a backup plan for Arnaud De Lie after losing Caleb Ewan to Jayco.
EF Education-EasyPost and Jayco-AlUla, after a worrying end to the last relegation cycle, are looking far more solid in the mid-pack and appear set to continue on this path with more smart signings like Rui Costa to EF and Ewan and Max Walscheid to Jayco.
Soudal-Quickstep and Ineos Grenadiers are seeing their stars wane as the former shed most of their Classics emphasis to support Evenepoel's Tour de France ambitions and the latter struggle to rekindle their former glory. Expect them to lose a couple of places this year unless Evenepoel can succeed in his quest for yellow.
Fictitious 2024 team standings
* 2023 UCI Team Ranking points include subtractions for penalties incurred during the season. The 2024 totals do not include these.
