Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
Liverpool Echo
Liverpool Echo
National
Liam Thorp

Win or lose tonight, this is a Prime Minister running out of road

And so here we are. Finally enough Conservative MPs have realised what many of us did a long, long time ago - that this is a Prime Minister unfit for the office he holds.

It took long enough. They didn't crack at the unlawful proroguing of Parliament, the Owen Paterson scandal or countless other deplorable episodes, but it appears the festival of debauchery that took place inside Downing Street while others were unable to say goodbye to loved ones was finally enough to push past that all important number of 54 letters sent to Sir Graham Brady.

Mr Johnson, shameless spinner that he is, had hoped Sue Gray's report, which widely castigated his leadership and the culture he created, was enough to draw a line under the whole sorry episode, when in fact it was possibly the straw that broke the camel's back.

READ MORE: What is a vote of no confidence, how does it work and when will it take place?

And so to tonight, the second confidence vote for a serving Conservative MP in just four years. It seems perhaps unlikely that the under-pressure Prime Minister will receive the requisite number of 180 no confidence votes, but in reality, most will now accept Mr Johnson is on his way out.

History tells us that even if he wins by a solid margin this evening, no confidence votes are usually something of a staging post en route to the end of a Prime Ministerial career. Margaret Thatcher famously resigned just eight days after winning such a vote, Theresa May quit six months after her victory in a similar contest. John Major lasted a few more years after winning a confidence motion that he called himself - but he was trounced at the next General Election by Tony Blair.

One big question for the Labour Party and other opposition groups is what would actually be the most useful result tonight. If Boris Johnson was to be defeated and removed from office, it could give the opportunity for a new face to arrive with a different energy and an aim to try and move on from the partygate scandal that has engulfed the current government and seen it plummet in the polls. That person would have a couple of years to try and reverse those fading fortunes ahead of a General Election.

On the other hand, if Johnson clings on but with a sizeable chunk of the Conservative Parliamentary Party voting to oust him, he will be more damaged than ever. He will be a Prime Minister who is unpopular and not trusted by large sections of the country and many of his own backbenchers who is heading in to two very difficult by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton later this month.

If he does hold on tonight, but loses both of those by-elections, we could still see a fresh leadership challenge emerge and with the Conservatives known to be ruthless when it comes to electoral success, that could actually be the moment his reign of shame finally ends.

Some have commented on what a remarkable turnaround it is for a Prime Minister to coast to power with an 80 seat majority only to face a vote of no confidence just two and half years later, but many will not be surprised. When you elect a man with a reputation for lying, misleading, bending the rules and acting with impunity - you were always likely to reach this point.

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.